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> isn't driving warming I never said anything about warming, that’s your line. I said, "I think these primary inputs to the system not staying constant would

> isn't driving warming I never said anything about warming, that’s your line. I said, "I think these primary inputs to the system not staying constant would make it impossible to model climate such that the model could be an accurate predictive tool." Also, we’ve long moved onto “Climate Change”, even though all the models still predict warming. > Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming. You seem so sure, and that has me questioning my position. People seem to like to quote Wikipedia here, so I DDG'd for a few seconds with the !wiki thing. Here's what came up. I may need to throw some bucks in the Wikipedia fundraising kettle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate Says here after all of the prehistoric climate change hypothesized to be tied to solar output: > The link between recent solar activity and climate has been quantified and is not a major driver of the warming that has occurred since early in the twentieth century. Maybe you’re right! Let’s keep reading. > Human-induced forcings are needed to reproduce the late-20th century warming. I thought I was busted, except in the very next sentence … > Some studies associate solar cycle-driven irradiation increases with part of twentieth century warming. So solar cycle-driven irradiation CAN correlate with temperature change. And in fact, if you read the whole article you can see regular admissions there’s a lot we don’t understand and the sun is a contributing factor in varying temperatures.

breakyerself 7y ago
I didn't say that it can't correlate. It just doesn't right now and hasn't correlated with global temps for a long time. Solar irradience has been declining for 40+ years while temps have jumped to levels not seen in 130,000 years Beyond that the warming we have is characteristic of greenhouse gas driven warming and not solar forcing. Nighttime temps are going up faster than daytime temps. The opposite of what solar forcing would do. The troposphere is warming rapidly while the upper reaches of the atmosphere like the stratosphere are cooling. Because greenhouse gasses are trapping heat at lower levels. Solar forcing would cause all levels of the atmosphere to warm. Not just the troposphere.
- EdSharkey 7y ago
  > 130,000 years This has got to be measurement error or lies, damn lies, and statistics. Temperatures have swung so drastically over the last 130000 years, I just can't believe that's true.
  - breakyerself 7y ago
    Well if your gut says so then I'll tell the scientists they can throw away their ice cores, tree rings, sediment samples, fossilized coral and pollen, etc. You literally give zero reason for disbelief. It just sounds unknowable to you therefore it is.
    - EdSharkey 7y ago
      Not JUST my gut, friend! There was "7 °C (13 °F) of warming in just a few years" during the Younger Dryas (around 12,900 to 11,700 years BP). That is in your 130k year range. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas If you've got tree rings from that time that say otherwise, then by all means share. I'll tell my scientists to standby and wait for your scientists' call.
      - breakyerself 7y ago
        About halfway through the warming at the end of the last ice age there was a return to cooling followed by a rebound to previous warming conditions. It was most pronounced in northwest Europe, Greenland, and northeast north America. That's where you see the rapid 7C warming. Other parts of the planet were doing the opposite in a see saw fashion. The younger dryas is visible in the global temperature record, but it isn't as pronounced as proxies in those local areas. It looks like a small hiccup in the middle of the warming. After the warming at the end of the younger dryas the planet was basically at the temperatures it would be for the entire 10,000 year holocene period. Which we are now above.

breakyerself 7y ago

I didn't say that it can't correlate. It just doesn't right now and hasn't correlated with global temps for a long time. Solar irradience has been declining for 40+ years while temps have jumped to levels not seen in 130,000 years Beyond that the warming we have is characteristic of greenhouse gas driven warming and not solar forcing. Nighttime temps are going up faster than daytime temps. The opposite of what solar forcing would do. The troposphere is warming rapidly while the upper reaches of the atmosphere like the stratosphere are cooling. Because greenhouse gasses are trapping heat at lower levels. Solar forcing would cause all levels of the atmosphere to warm. Not just the troposphere.

EdSharkey 7y ago
> 130,000 years This has got to be measurement error or lies, damn lies, and statistics. Temperatures have swung so drastically over the last 130000 years, I just can't believe that's true.
- breakyerself 7y ago
  Well if your gut says so then I'll tell the scientists they can throw away their ice cores, tree rings, sediment samples, fossilized coral and pollen, etc. You literally give zero reason for disbelief. It just sounds unknowable to you therefore it is.
  - EdSharkey 7y ago
    Not JUST my gut, friend! There was "7 °C (13 °F) of warming in just a few years" during the Younger Dryas (around 12,900 to 11,700 years BP). That is in your 130k year range. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas If you've got tree rings from that time that say otherwise, then by all means share. I'll tell my scientists to standby and wait for your scientists' call.
    - breakyerself 7y ago
      About halfway through the warming at the end of the last ice age there was a return to cooling followed by a rebound to previous warming conditions. It was most pronounced in northwest Europe, Greenland, and northeast north America. That's where you see the rapid 7C warming. Other parts of the planet were doing the opposite in a see saw fashion. The younger dryas is visible in the global temperature record, but it isn't as pronounced as proxies in those local areas. It looks like a small hiccup in the middle of the warming. After the warming at the end of the younger dryas the planet was basically at the temperatures it would be for the entire 10,000 year holocene period. Which we are now above.