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Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. Boeing and Airbus don’t build their own engines

Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. Boeing and Airbus don’t build their own engines. I don’t expect COMAC to try that in their first rodeo. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. Second off, while a large international distribution is important, you don’t need to compete in the wide body market to get it. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets, Russia would welcome it with open arms and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) All this well before getting around to Europe or North America. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. It's worked out well for the past 70 or so years. Industrial espionage can only go so far, that's more or less why the Russians dominate the rocket market. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... The MC21 and C-series use carbon fiber wings and the MC21 also uses a CF wing box. Comac is targeting planes from 20-30 years ago. Even if it were perfectly reliable, it's nowhere near competitive with what's on the market now. If that extra few percent of fuel burn weren't important there'd be no market for the NEO or MAX. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. That's the entire point. Without that scale support becomes that much more difficult and expensive. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. Yeah they've tried. The ARJ went over like a lead balloon. The domestic airlines haven't warmed up to Comac, and it's highly unlikely the C919 will move the needle much. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets With a strong anti-Chinese sentiment (Malaysia, Vietnam). Perhaps more importantly SEA sees a lot of short-range widebody service which the C919 doesn't help with. Russia would welcome it with open arms Russia would welcome a direct competitor to its homegrown offerings? That seems unlikely for the C919 and unlikely even if we're talking about a hypothetical plane built in a Sino-Russian joint venture. Although why would they partner? Russian avionics aren't going to be accepted internationally, Russian engines are woefully inefficient. Comac struggled with the Ukranian wings on the ARJ. Maybe a carbon fuselage, but are the Russians anywhere near being able to do that? and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market The shrinking middle east market? Emirates/flyDubai (who's got both Airbus and Boeing wrapped around their fingers is scaling back their growth (to put it delicately). and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) How welcoming will Africa be as they slowly come to terms with how screwed they are by the Belt & Road initiative? Sure, maybe CCP applies pressure to make sales. That's not going to translate to any sort of European or American success though. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I suspect that's not going to happen. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family. Boeing began working on a 737 replacement before the MAX program was begun, meanwhile Comac pushed the EIS target for the C919 back to 2022. As Aviation Week pointed out last year the C919 needs about 33 hours per month of flight testing for a 2021 EIS, in practice they're seeing about 5 hours per month. So, maybe.
sudosysgen 7y ago
The C-Series is using carbon wings, and an absolute fuckton of carbon fiber everywhere. I've seen tech that goes into their carbon fiber parts and geometries, it's incredibly impressive, and I'm confident Bombardier more or less got it down.
- djcapelis 7y ago
  It’s seemingly an excellent aircraft so far but it is not in the same size class as the C919, B737 or A320. In that market carbon fiber hasn't really hit yet. It clearly will in the next generation since the size class down (this market) and size class up (787, etc) both are carbon fiber designs. But the 737/320/919 size class isn’t there yet.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    It’s seemingly an excellent aircraft so far but it is not in the same size class as the C919, B737 or A320. In that market carbon fiber hasn't really hit yet. It clearly will in the next generation since the size class down (this market) and size class up (787, etc) both are carbon fiber designs. But the 737/320/919 size class isn’t there yet. They're all (C-Series/A220, C919, 737, A320) roughly the same size, but the C919 is antiquated and struggles to compete with the NG and CEO. Meanwhile the C-Series sets the benchmark. Even so, the C-Series was extraordinarily difficult to sell until Airbus stepped in. Comac, with dramatically less experience than Bombardier, will have an even more difficult time trying to unload the C919 (outside of China). The C919 is specced out at 168 people in a one class layout with an overall length of 38.9 meters, the CS300 seats 160 with an overall length of 38.7 meteres. That puts both between the 737-700 and 737-800 (or A319 and A320) in capacity. Range-wise the CS300 and CEO do well over 6,000 km. The C919? Even with current generation turbofans it can only do 4,000-5,500 km. The NG slots in between (but closer to the C919). The C919 is at least a generation behind the C-Series and NEO and is not a threat to either Boeing or Airbus. Hell, Comac doesn't even have a western cockpit for the C919 where Bombardier was toying with a stretch of the C-Series.

inferiorhuman 7y ago

If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. It's worked out well for the past 70 or so years. Industrial espionage can only go so far, that's more or less why the Russians dominate the rocket market. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... The MC21 and C-series use carbon fiber wings and the MC21 also uses a CF wing box. Comac is targeting planes from 20-30 years ago. Even if it were perfectly reliable, it's nowhere near competitive with what's on the market now. If that extra few percent of fuel burn weren't important there'd be no market for the NEO or MAX. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. That's the entire point. Without that scale support becomes that much more difficult and expensive. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. Yeah they've tried. The ARJ went over like a lead balloon. The domestic airlines haven't warmed up to Comac, and it's highly unlikely the C919 will move the needle much. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets With a strong anti-Chinese sentiment (Malaysia, Vietnam). Perhaps more importantly SEA sees a lot of short-range widebody service which the C919 doesn't help with. Russia would welcome it with open arms Russia would welcome a direct competitor to its homegrown offerings? That seems unlikely for the C919 and unlikely even if we're talking about a hypothetical plane built in a Sino-Russian joint venture. Although why would they partner? Russian avionics aren't going to be accepted internationally, Russian engines are woefully inefficient. Comac struggled with the Ukranian wings on the ARJ. Maybe a carbon fuselage, but are the Russians anywhere near being able to do that? and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market The shrinking middle east market? Emirates/flyDubai (who's got both Airbus and Boeing wrapped around their fingers is scaling back their growth (to put it delicately). and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) How welcoming will Africa be as they slowly come to terms with how screwed they are by the Belt & Road initiative? Sure, maybe CCP applies pressure to make sales. That's not going to translate to any sort of European or American success though. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I suspect that's not going to happen. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family. Boeing began working on a 737 replacement before the MAX program was begun, meanwhile Comac pushed the EIS target for the C919 back to 2022. As Aviation Week pointed out last year the C919 needs about 33 hours per month of flight testing for a 2021 EIS, in practice they're seeing about 5 hours per month. So, maybe.

sudosysgen 7y ago

The C-Series is using carbon wings, and an absolute fuckton of carbon fiber everywhere. I've seen tech that goes into their carbon fiber parts and geometries, it's incredibly impressive, and I'm confident Bombardier more or less got it down.

djcapelis 7y ago
It’s seemingly an excellent aircraft so far but it is not in the same size class as the C919, B737 or A320. In that market carbon fiber hasn't really hit yet. It clearly will in the next generation since the size class down (this market) and size class up (787, etc) both are carbon fiber designs. But the 737/320/919 size class isn’t there yet.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  It’s seemingly an excellent aircraft so far but it is not in the same size class as the C919, B737 or A320. In that market carbon fiber hasn't really hit yet. It clearly will in the next generation since the size class down (this market) and size class up (787, etc) both are carbon fiber designs. But the 737/320/919 size class isn’t there yet. They're all (C-Series/A220, C919, 737, A320) roughly the same size, but the C919 is antiquated and struggles to compete with the NG and CEO. Meanwhile the C-Series sets the benchmark. Even so, the C-Series was extraordinarily difficult to sell until Airbus stepped in. Comac, with dramatically less experience than Bombardier, will have an even more difficult time trying to unload the C919 (outside of China). The C919 is specced out at 168 people in a one class layout with an overall length of 38.9 meters, the CS300 seats 160 with an overall length of 38.7 meteres. That puts both between the 737-700 and 737-800 (or A319 and A320) in capacity. Range-wise the CS300 and CEO do well over 6,000 km. The C919? Even with current generation turbofans it can only do 4,000-5,500 km. The NG slots in between (but closer to the C919). The C919 is at least a generation behind the C-Series and NEO and is not a threat to either Boeing or Airbus. Hell, Comac doesn't even have a western cockpit for the C919 where Bombardier was toying with a stretch of the C-Series.