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Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagina

Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagination and attention but the narrow body sales are the bread and butter. That's a pretty large if. Head west a bit to Russia and see how they're doing in the international market. The Sukhoi SuperJet is, by most accounts, a great plane. Sukhoi managed to sell to the Mexicans (Interjet) and Irish (CityJet) and both got rid of them quickly. Being a threat to Boeing/Embraer and Airbus/Bombardier goes well beyond the complex task of building an airliner. Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. The Superjet didn't fare well -- the Russians collaborated with Safran and the result was a unreliable engine that was hard to find replacement parts for. The Russians are also currently peddling the PD-14 that competes with the 20+ year old CFM56. Comac skipped that step and went straight to GE. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. While the C919 wings are built in China, I believe they're a European design (Comac's previous stillborn attempt at an airliner used Ukraine's Antonov for the wings). They absolutely do not need to succeed in this market right away to put a big dent in the duopoly. Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. Bombardier and Embraer both developed competitors to the 737 on the small side, both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired. Unfortunately when you're a widget salesman like McNerney everything looks like a damn commodity. While McNerney's actions set Boeing back quite a bit, Comac is a far smaller threat than he thought. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years.

apendleton 7y ago
> both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired Nitpick: in Bombardier's case at least, these were separate events. The acquisition wasn't to deal with bankruptcy (they got a Canadian government bailout for that), but rather to gain access to Airbus's US manufacturing facilities to avoid import tariffs on US deliveries, which became necessary following a Boeing anti-dumping complaint that would have made the C-Series prohibitively expensive to US carriers.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Nitpick: in Bombardier's case at least, these were separate events. The acquisition wasn't to deal with bankruptcy (they got a Canadian government bailout for that), but rather to gain access to Airbus's US manufacturing facilities to avoid import tariffs on US deliveries, which became necessary following a Boeing anti-dumping complaint that would have made the C-Series prohibitively expensive to US carriers. My recollection is that Bombardier made (rejected) overtures in Boeing's direction before the trade spat. In either case BBD has gotten out of the commercial aircraft business completely, in large part due to the cost of developing the C-series.
danmaz74 7y ago
The difference here is that China has a rich (and growing) internal market.
- djcapelis 7y ago
  Yep! Which means it doesn’t even have to be better to win orders. It just has to be vaguely sufficient. Which is legitimately a tall order. But! Let’s also remember there’s a government entirely willing to subsidize the growth of a native product. Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention. Who knows if it’ll be any good, it may not be competitive. But will they be able to make something that flies? I’d happily bet on it.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention. Well that's changing the goalposts just a bit. It's likely that the Chinese can churn out a widebody, but Comac couldn't even pull off a warmed over DC-9. They've got less experience than any of the Russian companies and it's pretty much a given at this point that they won't be successful.
djcapelis 7y ago
Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. Boeing and Airbus don’t build their own engines. I don’t expect COMAC to try that in their first rodeo. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. Second off, while a large international distribution is important, you don’t need to compete in the wide body market to get it. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets, Russia would welcome it with open arms and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) All this well before getting around to Europe or North America. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. It's worked out well for the past 70 or so years. Industrial espionage can only go so far, that's more or less why the Russians dominate the rocket market. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... The MC21 and C-series use carbon fiber wings and the MC21 also uses a CF wing box. Comac is targeting planes from 20-30 years ago. Even if it were perfectly reliable, it's nowhere near competitive with what's on the market now. If that extra few percent of fuel burn weren't important there'd be no market for the NEO or MAX. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. That's the entire point. Without that scale support becomes that much more difficult and expensive. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. Yeah they've tried. The ARJ went over like a lead balloon. The domestic airlines haven't warmed up to Comac, and it's highly unlikely the C919 will move the needle much. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets With a strong anti-Chinese sentiment (Malaysia, Vietnam). Perhaps more importantly SEA sees a lot of short-range widebody service which the C919 doesn't help with. Russia would welcome it with open arms Russia would welcome a direct competitor to its homegrown offerings? That seems unlikely for the C919 and unlikely even if we're talking about a hypothetical plane built in a Sino-Russian joint venture. Although why would they partner? Russian avionics aren't going to be accepted internationally, Russian engines are woefully inefficient. Comac struggled with the Ukranian wings on the ARJ. Maybe a carbon fuselage, but are the Russians anywhere near being able to do that? and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market The shrinking middle east market? Emirates/flyDubai (who's got both Airbus and Boeing wrapped around their fingers is scaling back their growth (to put it delicately). and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) How welcoming will Africa be as they slowly come to terms with how screwed they are by the Belt & Road initiative? Sure, maybe CCP applies pressure to make sales. That's not going to translate to any sort of European or American success though. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I suspect that's not going to happen. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family. Boeing began working on a 737 replacement before the MAX program was begun, meanwhile Comac pushed the EIS target for the C919 back to 2022. As Aviation Week pointed out last year the C919 needs about 33 hours per month of flight testing for a 2021 EIS, in practice they're seeing about 5 hours per month. So, maybe.
ummonk 7y ago
I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there. The bigger issues I expect for the C919 will be fuel-efficiency, and trust that it is a safe plane. The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen. Safety trust will be hard to make up, but a possible pathway would be to have Chinese airliners and cargo companies use it first to establish a track record free of major accidents before getting sales to international airliners.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there. I wasn't aware that China had built much of a reputation for international customer support. The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen There's not much to see. The C-series is the one to beat and so far the assuredly optimistic, published specs (per Wikipedia) for the C919 don't come close to the CS300.

apendleton 7y ago

> both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired Nitpick: in Bombardier's case at least, these were separate events. The acquisition wasn't to deal with bankruptcy (they got a Canadian government bailout for that), but rather to gain access to Airbus's US manufacturing facilities to avoid import tariffs on US deliveries, which became necessary following a Boeing anti-dumping complaint that would have made the C-Series prohibitively expensive to US carriers.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
Nitpick: in Bombardier's case at least, these were separate events. The acquisition wasn't to deal with bankruptcy (they got a Canadian government bailout for that), but rather to gain access to Airbus's US manufacturing facilities to avoid import tariffs on US deliveries, which became necessary following a Boeing anti-dumping complaint that would have made the C-Series prohibitively expensive to US carriers. My recollection is that Bombardier made (rejected) overtures in Boeing's direction before the trade spat. In either case BBD has gotten out of the commercial aircraft business completely, in large part due to the cost of developing the C-series.

danmaz74 7y ago

The difference here is that China has a rich (and growing) internal market.

djcapelis 7y ago
Yep! Which means it doesn’t even have to be better to win orders. It just has to be vaguely sufficient. Which is legitimately a tall order. But! Let’s also remember there’s a government entirely willing to subsidize the growth of a native product. Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention. Who knows if it’ll be any good, it may not be competitive. But will they be able to make something that flies? I’d happily bet on it.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention. Well that's changing the goalposts just a bit. It's likely that the Chinese can churn out a widebody, but Comac couldn't even pull off a warmed over DC-9. They've got less experience than any of the Russian companies and it's pretty much a given at this point that they won't be successful.

djcapelis 7y ago

Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. Boeing and Airbus don’t build their own engines. I don’t expect COMAC to try that in their first rodeo. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. Second off, while a large international distribution is important, you don’t need to compete in the wide body market to get it. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets, Russia would welcome it with open arms and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) All this well before getting around to Europe or North America. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise. It's worked out well for the past 70 or so years. Industrial espionage can only go so far, that's more or less why the Russians dominate the rocket market. So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet... The MC21 and C-series use carbon fiber wings and the MC21 also uses a CF wing box. Comac is targeting planes from 20-30 years ago. Even if it were perfectly reliable, it's nowhere near competitive with what's on the market now. If that extra few percent of fuel burn weren't important there'd be no market for the NEO or MAX. First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft. That's the entire point. Without that scale support becomes that much more difficult and expensive. Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. Yeah they've tried. The ARJ went over like a lead balloon. The domestic airlines haven't warmed up to Comac, and it's highly unlikely the C919 will move the needle much. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets With a strong anti-Chinese sentiment (Malaysia, Vietnam). Perhaps more importantly SEA sees a lot of short-range widebody service which the C919 doesn't help with. Russia would welcome it with open arms Russia would welcome a direct competitor to its homegrown offerings? That seems unlikely for the C919 and unlikely even if we're talking about a hypothetical plane built in a Sino-Russian joint venture. Although why would they partner? Russian avionics aren't going to be accepted internationally, Russian engines are woefully inefficient. Comac struggled with the Ukranian wings on the ARJ. Maybe a carbon fuselage, but are the Russians anywhere near being able to do that? and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market The shrinking middle east market? Emirates/flyDubai (who's got both Airbus and Boeing wrapped around their fingers is scaling back their growth (to put it delicately). and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) How welcoming will Africa be as they slowly come to terms with how screwed they are by the Belt & Road initiative? Sure, maybe CCP applies pressure to make sales. That's not going to translate to any sort of European or American success though. Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first. I suspect that's not going to happen. I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family. Boeing began working on a 737 replacement before the MAX program was begun, meanwhile Comac pushed the EIS target for the C919 back to 2022. As Aviation Week pointed out last year the C919 needs about 33 hours per month of flight testing for a 2021 EIS, in practice they're seeing about 5 hours per month. So, maybe.

ummonk 7y ago

I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there. The bigger issues I expect for the C919 will be fuel-efficiency, and trust that it is a safe plane. The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen. Safety trust will be hard to make up, but a possible pathway would be to have Chinese airliners and cargo companies use it first to establish a track record free of major accidents before getting sales to international airliners.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there. I wasn't aware that China had built much of a reputation for international customer support. The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen There's not much to see. The C-series is the one to beat and so far the assuredly optimistic, published specs (per Wikipedia) for the C919 don't come close to the CS300.