4 ms·

FRED seems to have some different results https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART. These are huge numbers in a cou

FRED seems to have some different results https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART. These are huge numbers in a country the size of the US. Anyways, 'projected' is meaningless. It's pretty widely acknowledged that disability is abused, it seems to be a mix of people with real problems and those without. The very high disability rates in a few counties I think shows that it's not always legitimate usage

rayiner 7y ago
The FRED data is identical and probably the same source. It shows labor force participation rate dropping from 67% in 1998 to 63%, same as the BLS data I posted. But the chart you linked to doesn’t break things down by age group. When you do, you can see that the drop is almost entirely due to the 16-24 age group. Participation for people 25+ is stable since 1998.
- hash872 7y ago
  >drop is almost entirely due to the 16-24 age group. Participation for people 25+ is stable since 1998 This is simply not true at all. FRED specifically tracks prime-age labor participation rate. Gallons of ink/pixels have been written by academics about how the prime-age rate is lower since the early 2000s, it's a well-understood phenomena: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Here's a few academic pieces on the issue, including 3 by regional Fed branches: https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp19-1.pdf https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp19-1.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/september/prime-age-workforce-and-labor-market-polarization/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi... https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/er/articles/2019/3q19tuzementhao-uneven-recovery-prime-age-labor-force-participation https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/er/ar... https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0219 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0219 And here's a piece by the Brookings Institute on it too https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recent-rebound-in-prime-age-labor-force-participation/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recen...
  - rayiner 7y ago
    The chart you linked to was for total labor force participation rate, not prime age. The articles you linked confirm the same thing I said: > US labor force participation of prime-aged workers (aged 25–54) fell by 1.8 percentage points between 1995 and 2017, Falling from 84 to 82 percent is “stable.”
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
We saw that in the UK with some areas in the North having huge levels of disability. The government cracked down on it in the normal ham fisted way they do. There was a recent story about a man with no arms or legs being deemed fit for work.

rayiner 7y ago

The FRED data is identical and probably the same source. It shows labor force participation rate dropping from 67% in 1998 to 63%, same as the BLS data I posted. But the chart you linked to doesn’t break things down by age group. When you do, you can see that the drop is almost entirely due to the 16-24 age group. Participation for people 25+ is stable since 1998.

hash872 7y ago
>drop is almost entirely due to the 16-24 age group. Participation for people 25+ is stable since 1998 This is simply not true at all. FRED specifically tracks prime-age labor participation rate. Gallons of ink/pixels have been written by academics about how the prime-age rate is lower since the early 2000s, it's a well-understood phenomena: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Here's a few academic pieces on the issue, including 3 by regional Fed branches: https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp19-1.pdf https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp19-1.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/september/prime-age-workforce-and-labor-market-polarization/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi... https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/er/articles/2019/3q19tuzementhao-uneven-recovery-prime-age-labor-force-participation https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/er/ar... https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0219 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0219 And here's a piece by the Brookings Institute on it too https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recent-rebound-in-prime-age-labor-force-participation/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recen...
- rayiner 7y ago
  The chart you linked to was for total labor force participation rate, not prime age. The articles you linked confirm the same thing I said: > US labor force participation of prime-aged workers (aged 25–54) fell by 1.8 percentage points between 1995 and 2017, Falling from 84 to 82 percent is “stable.”

tonyedgecombe 7y ago

We saw that in the UK with some areas in the North having huge levels of disability. The government cracked down on it in the normal ham fisted way they do. There was a recent story about a man with no arms or legs being deemed fit for work.