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> Chinese-European duopoly Unlikely. The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) with the Comac C919 which has pr

> Chinese-European duopoly Unlikely. The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) with the Comac C919 which has problems with production. Since its first flight in 2017, there has only been 5 built. Tech transfers has also slowed to trickle since the HSR fiasco with foreign rail technology absorbed and then re-exported. Nobody trusts the Chinese to play fair. What's more likely if Boeing run into difficulties from the MAX damages is that it will restructure under Chapter 11 and re-emerge with the existing shareholders wiped out. This may involve a breakup, with the defence business separating from the commercial airliner business, but that's also unlikely due to how aerospace companies are run these days.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) AKA Boeing and Airbus.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
  The C919 is a narrowbody jet aimed at the 737/A320. There are no Chinese widebody/twin aisle aircraft, now or anytime in the foreseeable future, that can compete with the 787/A350.
  - djcapelis 7y ago
    In a huge leap of naming they’ve named it the C929 with initial flights in 2025 and EIS planned for 2027. It’s cool to think they probably won’t hit those dates but pretending like a roadmap doesn’t even exist is not. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929
    - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
      The CR929 is vaporware: they're not even planning to begin construction of the first prototype until 2021. Also, it's "CR" for "China/Russia", since this is meant to be a joint venture between COMAC and UAC (Sukhoi). Which sounds like a great recipe to delay everything even further. Also also, even if China does pull off the airframe, they'll still rely on Western jets to power it. China's first modern turbofan, the CJ-1000A, is not scheduled to go into service until 2030 (!) and even that is geared only for the C919: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A Don't get me wrong, I'm sure China will get there sooner or later, as they've already demonstrated with high-speed trains and many other things. But timeframes for going from concept to a serious competitor in this business are measured in decades.
      - djcapelis 7y ago
        Yes yes yes. But even if everything plays out like you say I don’t think you can say there’s no foreseeable future in which this happens. Please engage with the actual plans and state the technical details you know rather than saying that China has no roadmap do a thing they have a roadmap to do. Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagination and attention but the narrow body sales are the bread and butter. They absolutely do not need to succeed in this market right away to put a big dent in the duopoly.
        inferiorhuman 7y ago
        Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagination and attention but the narrow body sales are the bread and butter. That's a pretty large if. Head west a bit to Russia and see how they're doing in the international market. The Sukhoi SuperJet is, by most accounts, a great plane. Sukhoi managed to sell to the Mexicans (Interjet) and Irish (CityJet) and both got rid of them quickly. Being a threat to Boeing/Embraer and Airbus/Bombardier goes well beyond the complex task of building an airliner. Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. The Superjet didn't fare well -- the Russians collaborated with Safran and the result was a unreliable engine that was hard to find replacement parts for. The Russians are also currently peddling the PD-14 that competes with the 20+ year old CFM56. Comac skipped that step and went straight to GE. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. While the C919 wings are built in China, I believe they're a European design (Comac's previous stillborn attempt at an airliner used Ukraine's Antonov for the wings). They absolutely do not need to succeed in this market right away to put a big dent in the duopoly. Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. Bombardier and Embraer both developed competitors to the 737 on the small side, both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired. Unfortunately when you're a widget salesman like McNerney everything looks like a damn commodity. While McNerney's actions set Boeing back quite a bit, Comac is a far smaller threat than he thought. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years.
ummonk 7y ago
The C919 is competing with the 737 and A320, and hasn't entered production yet. Are you mixing it up with the ARJ21?
- starfallg 7y ago
  Yeah, the ARJ21 is in production and the C919 is in testing.

inferiorhuman 7y ago

The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) AKA Boeing and Airbus.

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
The C919 is a narrowbody jet aimed at the 737/A320. There are no Chinese widebody/twin aisle aircraft, now or anytime in the foreseeable future, that can compete with the 787/A350.
- djcapelis 7y ago
  In a huge leap of naming they’ve named it the C929 with initial flights in 2025 and EIS planned for 2027. It’s cool to think they probably won’t hit those dates but pretending like a roadmap doesn’t even exist is not. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
    The CR929 is vaporware: they're not even planning to begin construction of the first prototype until 2021. Also, it's "CR" for "China/Russia", since this is meant to be a joint venture between COMAC and UAC (Sukhoi). Which sounds like a great recipe to delay everything even further. Also also, even if China does pull off the airframe, they'll still rely on Western jets to power it. China's first modern turbofan, the CJ-1000A, is not scheduled to go into service until 2030 (!) and even that is geared only for the C919: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A Don't get me wrong, I'm sure China will get there sooner or later, as they've already demonstrated with high-speed trains and many other things. But timeframes for going from concept to a serious competitor in this business are measured in decades.
    - djcapelis 7y ago
      Yes yes yes. But even if everything plays out like you say I don’t think you can say there’s no foreseeable future in which this happens. Please engage with the actual plans and state the technical details you know rather than saying that China has no roadmap do a thing they have a roadmap to do. Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagination and attention but the narrow body sales are the bread and butter. They absolutely do not need to succeed in this market right away to put a big dent in the duopoly.
      - inferiorhuman 7y ago
        Also let’s be clear if the C919 actually works out they will be a serious competitor. The market for wide body aircraft is the one that captures all the imagination and attention but the narrow body sales are the bread and butter. That's a pretty large if. Head west a bit to Russia and see how they're doing in the international market. The Sukhoi SuperJet is, by most accounts, a great plane. Sukhoi managed to sell to the Mexicans (Interjet) and Irish (CityJet) and both got rid of them quickly. Being a threat to Boeing/Embraer and Airbus/Bombardier goes well beyond the complex task of building an airliner. Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially. The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there. The Superjet didn't fare well -- the Russians collaborated with Safran and the result was a unreliable engine that was hard to find replacement parts for. The Russians are also currently peddling the PD-14 that competes with the 20+ year old CFM56. Comac skipped that step and went straight to GE. Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum. While the C919 wings are built in China, I believe they're a European design (Comac's previous stillborn attempt at an airliner used Ukraine's Antonov for the wings). They absolutely do not need to succeed in this market right away to put a big dent in the duopoly. Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network. Bombardier and Embraer both developed competitors to the 737 on the small side, both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired. Unfortunately when you're a widget salesman like McNerney everything looks like a damn commodity. While McNerney's actions set Boeing back quite a bit, Comac is a far smaller threat than he thought. If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years.

ummonk 7y ago

The C919 is competing with the 737 and A320, and hasn't entered production yet. Are you mixing it up with the ARJ21?

starfallg 7y ago
Yeah, the ARJ21 is in production and the C919 is in testing.