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If you can find me economists that have predicted economic activities/results with any level of accuracy (e.g., greater than 50% even), then I will find you ~10
by gonational 7y ago
If you can find me economists that have predicted economic activities/results with any level of accuracy (e.g., greater than 50% even), then I will find you ~10 times as many prominent economists who have predicted the opposite. Economists probably predict things accurately at a rate lower than throwing a 20 sided die into the air and guessing which number will be facing up when it lands.
Does that matter? Well, if they can’t predict things with any degree of accuracy based on the data given, this must mean that they don’t understand the ends that are achieved by the means that generated the data, doesn’t it?
If economists don’t understand the outcomes that result from the inputs, then they shouldn’t be trusted to advise on the inputs?
TBH, why do we even care what “economists” think at all, given the above? Economists are no better, from an objective value perspective, then tarot readers. Economics, as a study / practice, has been corrupted by the followers of Keynes, and by the worship of monetarism, and, as a result, fails to provide any value to the economy, let alone to society as a whole.
Business leaders. Business leaders provide value to the economy by staking their own success on being able providing enough value to turn a profit. Business leaders make predictions, and when they fail they don’t make money (they probably lose a lot of money). If their predictions come true, they become rich. Economists just sit on the sidelines, watching and squawking like railbirds, and postcasting things to boost their ego, staking nothing but the time it takes to type out 280 characters of their precious wisdom.
- sideshowb 7y ago> TBH, why do we even care what “economists” think at all, given the above? Economists are no better, from an objective value perspective, then tarot readers Because the people with data to prove this are themselves economists. Yes, economics has had a lot of failures (I often find myself informing people of these) but anything you replace it with is ultimately going to be another form of economics. For every successful business leader you could probably find 100 who failed: taking your guidance from business leaders just leads to survivorship bias.
- gonational 7y agoI think it’s pretty core to my thesis that economics is a practice/study that provides little to no value to anyone, so why would it need to be replaced?
- mrep 7y agoJust because it is not perfect does not mean it is useless. Just look at the countries trying to endlessly print money to see what happens when you ignore it.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- sideshowb 7y agoYour thesis is an economics thesis. Congratulations, you are now a failed economist.
- AnimalMuppet 7y agoBecause someone is going to make policy decisions. On what basis would you have them do so? Economics, which (as you say) fails many times in making predictions? A good guess? Gut feel? Wishful thinking? For all its flaws, economics is actually better than the alternatives.
- dv_dt 7y agoBusinesses only become profitable in a almost completely artificial human made financial landscape. There is really no reason to believe much more than a successful businessman is someone who was smart, sure, but also lucky at some very particular niche. And as bad as economists are, they're the few which are studying how that landscape's construction affects how businesses and people grow within them. That isn't to say we should blindly follow their advice, but to throw out all economists in favor or successful businessmen is looking to implement cargo cult surviorship biases.
- gonational 7y agoYou’re right; we shouldn’t throw out what they have created. Economists have been working tirelessly for decades to generate models that can demonstrate how economies don’t work. If we destroy the earth in nuclear war or some other calamity, these models could help to ensure that future civilizations fail before they ever reach the point that we did.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago> Businesses only become profitable in a almost completely artificial human made financial landscape. Baloney. Some may; many good ones are profitable anyway.