7 ms·

I would also add the state of the market right now is favorable for sellers. Might as well strike when the market is hot and people will gobble his stocks up wi

I would also add the state of the market right now is favorable for sellers. Might as well strike when the market is hot and people will gobble his stocks up without any issues. Considering an impending recession, it just makes sense he would dump these now.

mrosett 7y ago
There's not a whole lot of evidence for an impending recession.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  Well the yield curve did invert recently. Then reversed.
- stevehawk 7y ago
  In the US there is a significant downturn in a handful of industries that are the first to decline in a recession. For instance, RV/ camper sales are in a post-boom decline. I'm not saying that means there is an incoming recession as a number of reasons could be at play likethe market simply correcting itself, but things like that tend to be why people think one is impending.
  - blackflame 7y ago
    There are many factors such as gas prices that need to be considered as well when it comes to RV sales for example. Maybe people are now able to fly and stay in hotels instead. Maybe more people know that the best days of owning an RV are the day you buy it and the day you sell it.
- michalu 7y ago
  Perhaps, but it's never a bad idea to sell high.
pc86 7y ago
I've been hearing about this impending recession for the better part of a decade now, is this just something people repeat so that when there is an inevitable downturn they can say "look I was right!"?
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  Some people will always be predicting a recession, sure. But the yield curve inversion a month or so ago is an indicator that a substantial number of people agree on. But IIRC it reversed again after inverting. Certainly in raw numbers the market is in territory that is, while not unprecedented, associated with a couple previous rather significant collapses. It's safe to say a recession will happen but difficult to say exactly when.
- draw_down 7y ago
  Your choices are either, it’s coming eventually, or this time it’s different. Choose as you like but those are the choices.
- wefarrell 7y ago
  Markets are more predictable over the long term than they are in the short term. This is why it people put their retirement funds in the stock market versus a savings account. For the past few years many macro indicators (Shiller PE, Market Cap to GDP, etc...) have signaled that returns will not be in line with the recent uptrend. This doesn't mean there will be a crash, it could also signal an extended period of reduced returns.
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
  For the better part of a decade or for the last 3 years? The country is incredibly divided. About half the country thinks the country is going to shit anytime their party isn't leading. The country usually does go to shit when leadership is divided. And the economy has almost always gone to shit when the yield curve inverts. Combine that with the fact that inequality is at an all time high and a lot of people WANT to see asset prices go to shit, a lot of people want to see this administration go to shit, and you've got a recipe for people predicting and cheerleading recession. I'm young, so I can hardly speak of 2007 at all, but I think this is a unique circumstance in the amount of people that seem to WANT a recession. Would love to hear from someone older and wiser if this aspect is normal.

mrosett 7y ago

There's not a whole lot of evidence for an impending recession.

rootusrootus 7y ago
Well the yield curve did invert recently. Then reversed.
stevehawk 7y ago
In the US there is a significant downturn in a handful of industries that are the first to decline in a recession. For instance, RV/ camper sales are in a post-boom decline. I'm not saying that means there is an incoming recession as a number of reasons could be at play likethe market simply correcting itself, but things like that tend to be why people think one is impending.
- blackflame 7y ago
  There are many factors such as gas prices that need to be considered as well when it comes to RV sales for example. Maybe people are now able to fly and stay in hotels instead. Maybe more people know that the best days of owning an RV are the day you buy it and the day you sell it.
michalu 7y ago
Perhaps, but it's never a bad idea to sell high.

pc86 7y ago

I've been hearing about this impending recession for the better part of a decade now, is this just something people repeat so that when there is an inevitable downturn they can say "look I was right!"?

rootusrootus 7y ago
Some people will always be predicting a recession, sure. But the yield curve inversion a month or so ago is an indicator that a substantial number of people agree on. But IIRC it reversed again after inverting. Certainly in raw numbers the market is in territory that is, while not unprecedented, associated with a couple previous rather significant collapses. It's safe to say a recession will happen but difficult to say exactly when.
draw_down 7y ago
Your choices are either, it’s coming eventually, or this time it’s different. Choose as you like but those are the choices.
wefarrell 7y ago
Markets are more predictable over the long term than they are in the short term. This is why it people put their retirement funds in the stock market versus a savings account. For the past few years many macro indicators (Shiller PE, Market Cap to GDP, etc...) have signaled that returns will not be in line with the recent uptrend. This doesn't mean there will be a crash, it could also signal an extended period of reduced returns.
onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
For the better part of a decade or for the last 3 years? The country is incredibly divided. About half the country thinks the country is going to shit anytime their party isn't leading. The country usually does go to shit when leadership is divided. And the economy has almost always gone to shit when the yield curve inverts. Combine that with the fact that inequality is at an all time high and a lot of people WANT to see asset prices go to shit, a lot of people want to see this administration go to shit, and you've got a recipe for people predicting and cheerleading recession. I'm young, so I can hardly speak of 2007 at all, but I think this is a unique circumstance in the amount of people that seem to WANT a recession. Would love to hear from someone older and wiser if this aspect is normal.