3 ms·
> $1m rising from 0% to 1% seems much more significant than the chance of the same win rising from 20% to 21%. 0% to 1% is a much bigger change expected value
by thethirdone 7y ago
> $1m rising from 0% to 1% seems much more significant than the chance of the same win rising from 20% to 21%.
0% to 1% is a much bigger change expected value when viewed as a ratio. 20% to 21% is a change of about 5% whereas 0% to 1% is an infinite or 100% change.
I think it is fair to say that the example does not demonstrate any human bias.