4 ms·
For a less comprehensive, but also less complex and opaque, analysis, I looked at the cash on cash returns from seed, series a and series b investments in some
by aaavl2821 7y ago
For a less comprehensive, but also less complex and opaque, analysis, I looked at the cash on cash returns from seed, series a and series b investments in some of the top performing companies in recent years: Uber, lyft, twitter, Dropbox, Pinterest, snap and zoom [0]
I did this as a way to compare tech and biotech seed investing (I work in biotech). Outlier returns in biotech are lower than in tech, so managing risk across a portfolio is more important than just getting in on big winners (i.e. Consistent base hits and home runs, not just going for one or two grand slams)
Interestingly, biotech VC has outperformed tech VC over the last decade. This is despite lower returns on an individual- investment basis. This suggests that concentrated portfolios with low loss rates can perform better than portfolios than power law portfolios [1]
So if you are a biotech investor, you probably shouldn't follow the tech investing playbook
[0] https://www.baybridgebio.com/blog/anatomy_of_a_decacorn.html https://www.baybridgebio.com/blog/anatomy_of_a_decacorn.html
[1] https://www.baybridgebio.com/blog/anatomy_of_a_top_vc.html https://www.baybridgebio.com/blog/anatomy_of_a_top_vc.html
- yowlingcat 7y agoGreat reads. My first hunch on the former is that the barrier to entry is higher in biotech than tech in general, but the barrier to exit is lower in biotech. I'm sure that's a gross overgeneralization, but would you be inclined to agree?
- aaavl2821 7y agoThanks. I think the barrier to starting a biotech company is higher as you can't bootstrap as easily (though it is becoming easier to do so) and you can't get exponential growth on a tiny amount of capital (which you can do in tech with product market fit) The exit environment has been good lately. The M&A market will be strong for the foreseeable future bc big pharma relies on startups for new drugs when existing drugs go off patent. The IPO market has been good, but that could change for a number of reasons, including rising interest rates
- yowlingcat 7y agoForgive me if this is an obvious question, but why would rising interest rates cool off the IPO market? Cascading effects?