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So their conclusion is based on just looking at non negative investments? If so how useful is this data? Because there is no way to practically know what invest

So their conclusion is based on just looking at non negative investments? If so how useful is this data? Because there is no way to practically know what investment will be a positive or negative investment. In other words, there is no way to broadly index among all non-negative investments. The paper should have compared brodly indexing among all startups vs hand picking possible winners. This is practical and avoid any survivorship bias.

aothman 7y ago
Of course there is a way to broadly index among all non-negative seed investments: by broadly indexing among all seed investments. The fraction of money-losing investments in a population will affect, for instance, whether we would expect the typical investor making five investments at random to make or lose money. But regardless of whether losers are 10%, 50%, or 90% of the investment pool, if the winners are drawing from an unbounded mean power law then broadly indexing raises an investor's expected return.