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Please note that IPCC projections do not include carbon from permafrost in their projections: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/02/the-permafrost-bomb

Please note that IPCC projections do not include carbon from permafrost in their projections: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/02/the-permafrost-bomb-is-ticking/ https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/02/the-permafros... As a result, the carbon budget for keeping warming under two degrees over postindustrial (widely thought to be catastrophic but survivable) has shrunk. Dr. Peter Carter, one of the IPCC's reviewers, explains how we are likely to miss 1.5 and 2 degree targets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa13KrOvE2s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa13KrOvE2s

ForHackernews 7y ago
My impression (as a nonscientist who sometimes works with climate scientists) is that very few experts believe we have a realistic chance of holding to 2 degrees. Personally, I think the situation is likely much worse than reported in the mainstream media. There's a fear of scaring people too much, or making them give up in despair, so we keep hearing about how we "could" meet these increasingly farcical reduction targets, even as we're blowing past them.
jlmorton 7y ago
I watched the entire interview with Dr. Peter Carter. At about 19:50 in the interview, he talks about a "Massive! Massive increase in methane." He talks about an incredible eruption of methane, almost in apocalyptic terms, he says he knows of no other source it could be other than methane hydrates, and he is shocked that it hasn't received more media attention. He then kind of vacillates a bit when asked to quantify it. He talks about historic methane concentrations from ice core samples and then compares that to current methane concentrations in Barrow, AK, the site of the methane eruption. This was intriguing to me, so I tried to find the original report he's talking about. What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents. Indeed, there has been large and rapid increase in methane concentrations in Barrow, Alaska over the past few years. But it's a change of about 5-10% [1]. And there were similar-scale eruptions in years past, such as in 2003. The change is certainly more rapid than the trend. It's probably noteworthy. Clearly something is happening in that area. But this sort of silly exaggeration is one of the reasons why so many dismiss climate science. If you want people to believe you, don't exaggerate the science. [1] https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/arctic-methane-levels-reach-new-heights-data-shows/ https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/arctic-met...
- perfunctory 7y ago
  > What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents The report you linked doesn't sound much less alarming: "To spot methane levels breaking the 2000ppb mark so sharply in this fragile region is unprecedented, as the chart below illustrates."
- matmatmatmat 7y ago
  Are you qualified to evaluated what makes a change large or small? Is it possible that a 5-10% change is actually "massive"?
  - jlmorton 7y ago
    Perhaps not, I am not a climate scientist. I guess that precludes me from looking at a dataset and forming an independent conclusion. But since I'm not qualified to comment on the data, is Michael Mann qualified enough? https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1172947818069352451 https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1172947818069352451
    - ascii_only 7y ago
      He doesn't argue with increase and only argues what is source of this spike.
      - jlmorton 7y ago
        Not true. He says: > The 2019 measurements are consistent with the trend over the past decade. Outliers (i.e. isolated data points that lie well above the average) are seen throughout the record. Do not over-interpret them. He goes on to say there's no evidence this is from methane hydrates, or permafrost: > That is not to say that we shouldn't worry about the potential for increased methane release from melting permafrost. But there is no evidence to support breathless claims that we have e.g. crossed some "tipping point" with regard to such processes.
        7y ago

ForHackernews 7y ago

My impression (as a nonscientist who sometimes works with climate scientists) is that very few experts believe we have a realistic chance of holding to 2 degrees. Personally, I think the situation is likely much worse than reported in the mainstream media. There's a fear of scaring people too much, or making them give up in despair, so we keep hearing about how we "could" meet these increasingly farcical reduction targets, even as we're blowing past them.

jlmorton 7y ago

I watched the entire interview with Dr. Peter Carter. At about 19:50 in the interview, he talks about a "Massive! Massive increase in methane." He talks about an incredible eruption of methane, almost in apocalyptic terms, he says he knows of no other source it could be other than methane hydrates, and he is shocked that it hasn't received more media attention. He then kind of vacillates a bit when asked to quantify it. He talks about historic methane concentrations from ice core samples and then compares that to current methane concentrations in Barrow, AK, the site of the methane eruption. This was intriguing to me, so I tried to find the original report he's talking about. What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents. Indeed, there has been large and rapid increase in methane concentrations in Barrow, Alaska over the past few years. But it's a change of about 5-10% [1]. And there were similar-scale eruptions in years past, such as in 2003. The change is certainly more rapid than the trend. It's probably noteworthy. Clearly something is happening in that area. But this sort of silly exaggeration is one of the reasons why so many dismiss climate science. If you want people to believe you, don't exaggerate the science. [1] https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/arctic-methane-levels-reach-new-heights-data-shows/ https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/arctic-met...

perfunctory 7y ago
> What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents The report you linked doesn't sound much less alarming: "To spot methane levels breaking the 2000ppb mark so sharply in this fragile region is unprecedented, as the chart below illustrates."
matmatmatmat 7y ago
Are you qualified to evaluated what makes a change large or small? Is it possible that a 5-10% change is actually "massive"?
- jlmorton 7y ago
  Perhaps not, I am not a climate scientist. I guess that precludes me from looking at a dataset and forming an independent conclusion. But since I'm not qualified to comment on the data, is Michael Mann qualified enough? https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1172947818069352451 https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1172947818069352451
  - ascii_only 7y ago
    He doesn't argue with increase and only argues what is source of this spike.
    - jlmorton 7y ago
      Not true. He says: > The 2019 measurements are consistent with the trend over the past decade. Outliers (i.e. isolated data points that lie well above the average) are seen throughout the record. Do not over-interpret them. He goes on to say there's no evidence this is from methane hydrates, or permafrost: > That is not to say that we shouldn't worry about the potential for increased methane release from melting permafrost. But there is no evidence to support breathless claims that we have e.g. crossed some "tipping point" with regard to such processes.
      - 7y ago