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This article is badly reasoned. Here are some bad statistical sleight of hands it engages in: 1. He claims “Prime age” (25-54) participation is at an all time
by hacknat 7y ago
This article is badly reasoned. Here are some bad statistical sleight of hands it engages in:
1. He claims “Prime age” (25-54) participation is at an all time high. It is, but overall labor force participation is at a 40 year low.
2. Median income has risen in the past 4 years than at an point since the 90s. This is such a cherry picked stat, I don’t even... How about this, real wage growth has barely moved since the 70s (source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us...)
3. Companies that invest in IT experienced hiring growth. Sure, but we’re talking about the entire labor supply not individual company success. Success at one company often comes at the expense of failure at another (a competitor who is made irrelevant, etc).
4. Productivity gains. This is getting insanely hard to measure, as others have pointed out, but it also seems to be a straight lie. Productivity has increased since 2010, so I can’t make out what he’s saying there. Also, why narrow the timeline to 2010? Brief periods of stagnation often occur within larger trends. Like productivity.
This is just another “head in the sand” think piece, by someone who is part of a group of people that are desperate to convince everyone that this economy is actually working fine. Well the labor market hasn’t really recovered since the last recession, so this wish fulfillment is just wrong.
Manufacturing increased productivity and profit over the last decade while employing net fewer people. That is the first time in human history that that has ever happened. We need to take it very seriously.
- papreclip 7y agoRegarding point 1, isn't that just due to the fact that baby boomers are entering retirement age, and retirees are living longer than ever before? "Prime age participation" seems like what you would want to measure if you're trying to assess whether the robots are taking our jobs
- Heybud 7y agoNo, that stat doesn't count 65+ people: "Labour force participation rate is defined as the section of working population in the age group of 16-64"
- chillacy 7y agoRE: labor force participation, this one graph explains so much about the resurgence of "white identity politics" in recent years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300028 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300028 When opportunities are abundant, people are generous; when opportunities become scare, people are selfish.