5 ms·

San Francisco has about 30,000 car breakins per year, largely because there is no enforcement. How much does that cost?

lightbendover 7y ago
This is a great boon to the repair shops of San Francisco and I cannot for the life of me think of a parable that would indicate insidious downsides.
- newnewpdro 7y ago
  For those reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
lonelappde 7y ago
How much is the cost of a break-in?
- vel0city 7y ago
  Truly spitballing an answer to this. A car window replacement is probably a few hundred bucks ($200-500), I imagine there are some instances with some really high value (greater than $1k USD, think a laptop) takes but there's also probably a ton of small hauls (loose change, stereo) or unsuccessful takes. I'd guess the average probably couldn't be more than a thousand bucks a break in, on average. This means this back of the napkin math puts car break-ins in that area costing probably not more than $30M, not including some insurance overheads and what not. So judging by off the napkin math on costs and optimistically assuming stronger enforcement would lead to 50% less car break ins, if strong enforcement costs more than $15 million is it worth it? When does the cost of enforcement become inconsequential to the results? A good question to debate on either side IMO.
  - kelnos 7y ago
    Even if a single police officer costs $1M a year all-in (which I'm significantly high-balling, I hope), I imagine 15 police officers hired specifically to work on car break-in cases would make a huge dent. The car thieves keep doing what they're doing because they know the police won't track them down. Even some minor efforts to start tracking them down could act as a powerful deterrent. That's not really the point, though. It's not just a simple monetary calculation. Even if the true value of repairs and stolen items was $30M, I would allocate several times that of taxpayer money just for the quality of life benefits, assuming it would do some good.
tedunangst 7y ago
Last car I owned in SF somebody broke a window and rifled through the inside. I didn't fix it, except to tape some plastic over the broken window. Shortly later, somebody broke another window (instead of just ripping off the tape, WTF!). Eventually sold the car and had to replace the windows, costing about $1000.
- droithomme 7y ago
  Similar here. Both back side windows. Fortunately they were on hinges and could be cracked open so I was able to get used ones at a junkyard for $60 each and replace them myself. Then the rear window got smashed in. $200 at the junkyard for that one and a lot harder to DIY. Then the trunk got jimmied, breaking the lock. I can't remember what that costed to fix, I had to have it keyed by the dealer, I think it was fairly expensive. Stolen radio (value approximately $300) I didn't replace. Stolen technical manuals and books (maybe $300 as well) I replaced some. I doubt they were able to even sell those. It's one of many reasons I moved away from there and do not entertain any job offers from that region, regardless of how much they are offering. At a certain point one needs to write off these cities. That or accept being a victim with no legal recourse knowing your car's going to be vandalized damaged and stolen on a regular basis and you are going to be hassled by guys with guns when walking down the street.

This is a great boon to the repair shops of San Francisco and I cannot for the life of me think of a parable that would indicate insidious downsides.

newnewpdro 7y ago
For those reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

lonelappde 7y ago

How much is the cost of a break-in?

vel0city 7y ago
Truly spitballing an answer to this. A car window replacement is probably a few hundred bucks ($200-500), I imagine there are some instances with some really high value (greater than $1k USD, think a laptop) takes but there's also probably a ton of small hauls (loose change, stereo) or unsuccessful takes. I'd guess the average probably couldn't be more than a thousand bucks a break in, on average. This means this back of the napkin math puts car break-ins in that area costing probably not more than $30M, not including some insurance overheads and what not. So judging by off the napkin math on costs and optimistically assuming stronger enforcement would lead to 50% less car break ins, if strong enforcement costs more than $15 million is it worth it? When does the cost of enforcement become inconsequential to the results? A good question to debate on either side IMO.
- kelnos 7y ago
  Even if a single police officer costs $1M a year all-in (which I'm significantly high-balling, I hope), I imagine 15 police officers hired specifically to work on car break-in cases would make a huge dent. The car thieves keep doing what they're doing because they know the police won't track them down. Even some minor efforts to start tracking them down could act as a powerful deterrent. That's not really the point, though. It's not just a simple monetary calculation. Even if the true value of repairs and stolen items was $30M, I would allocate several times that of taxpayer money just for the quality of life benefits, assuming it would do some good.

tedunangst 7y ago

Last car I owned in SF somebody broke a window and rifled through the inside. I didn't fix it, except to tape some plastic over the broken window. Shortly later, somebody broke another window (instead of just ripping off the tape, WTF!). Eventually sold the car and had to replace the windows, costing about $1000.

droithomme 7y ago
Similar here. Both back side windows. Fortunately they were on hinges and could be cracked open so I was able to get used ones at a junkyard for $60 each and replace them myself. Then the rear window got smashed in. $200 at the junkyard for that one and a lot harder to DIY. Then the trunk got jimmied, breaking the lock. I can't remember what that costed to fix, I had to have it keyed by the dealer, I think it was fairly expensive. Stolen radio (value approximately $300) I didn't replace. Stolen technical manuals and books (maybe $300 as well) I replaced some. I doubt they were able to even sell those. It's one of many reasons I moved away from there and do not entertain any job offers from that region, regardless of how much they are offering. At a certain point one needs to write off these cities. That or accept being a victim with no legal recourse knowing your car's going to be vandalized damaged and stolen on a regular basis and you are going to be hassled by guys with guns when walking down the street.