group amasses power under leadership signifucantly more competent than competitors in a war -> things are ok for a while because group's opponents are spent in

group amasses power under leadership signifucantly more competent than competitors in a war -> things are ok for a while because group's opponents are spent in blood and treasure, and also because of competent leadership -> [time] -> new interest groups form, old opponents recover strength, leadership declines due to reversion to the mean and complacency -> war breaks out when the government is sufficiently weakened -> repeat