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So, my first thought is that I completely agree with you, that the complex supply chain to produce weapons and the interconnected-ness of modern economies is so

So, my first thought is that I completely agree with you, that the complex supply chain to produce weapons and the interconnected-ness of modern economies is so great that any war would have to be fought and won in a matter of months before both sides collapse. But my second thought is that people said the exact same thing right before WW1. I think we underestimate our ability to adapt to changing circumstances. If I had to guess, we would see the a change in the focus of research on cruise missiles and precision-guided weapons to focus on making them cheap to create with what resources are available.

ThrowawayR2 7y ago
> "If I had to guess, we would see the a change in the focus of research on cruise missiles and precision-guided weapons to focus on making them cheap to create with what resources are available." Were that possible, the permanently festering Middle East conflicts would already have produced them. It's not as if they don't have the intelligence and motivation; recent incidents of conversion of consumer drones into weapons being a prime example.
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  They do have domestically produced ballistic missiles in the Middle east, for example Iran made those that blew up the saudi oil plant domestically (though they probably bought the jet engines from a Czech company). And Israel obviously has a bunch to put their nukes on. I'm guessing the reason many don't build their own is mainly because most of find it easier to buy them from the USA or Russia as part of larger geopolitical deals.
- openasocket 7y ago
  I'd argue the Middle East conflicts don't fit the scenario of total war. By total war, I'm picturing the scenarios of WW1 and 2. 1. Total mobilization of the population: drafting or conscription or calling up all reserves) 2. Switching to a wartime economy, where a large portion of the economy is directed to the war effort, with government regulation and rationing of important strategic resources. This also requires a robust industrialized economy, capable of producing weaponry and performing research. 3. A prolonged conflict (which tends to be a prerequisite for 1 and 2) so that initial stockpiles have been drained. 4. Access to vital resources and equipment is cut off, due to embargoes, blockades, and interdiction of supplies. I can't think of a Middle Eastern conflict that fits all of those criteria.

ThrowawayR2 7y ago

> "If I had to guess, we would see the a change in the focus of research on cruise missiles and precision-guided weapons to focus on making them cheap to create with what resources are available." Were that possible, the permanently festering Middle East conflicts would already have produced them. It's not as if they don't have the intelligence and motivation; recent incidents of conversion of consumer drones into weapons being a prime example.

SiempreViernes 7y ago
They do have domestically produced ballistic missiles in the Middle east, for example Iran made those that blew up the saudi oil plant domestically (though they probably bought the jet engines from a Czech company). And Israel obviously has a bunch to put their nukes on. I'm guessing the reason many don't build their own is mainly because most of find it easier to buy them from the USA or Russia as part of larger geopolitical deals.
openasocket 7y ago
I'd argue the Middle East conflicts don't fit the scenario of total war. By total war, I'm picturing the scenarios of WW1 and 2. 1. Total mobilization of the population: drafting or conscription or calling up all reserves) 2. Switching to a wartime economy, where a large portion of the economy is directed to the war effort, with government regulation and rationing of important strategic resources. This also requires a robust industrialized economy, capable of producing weaponry and performing research. 3. A prolonged conflict (which tends to be a prerequisite for 1 and 2) so that initial stockpiles have been drained. 4. Access to vital resources and equipment is cut off, due to embargoes, blockades, and interdiction of supplies. I can't think of a Middle Eastern conflict that fits all of those criteria.