5 ms·

What's interesting is that it seems that there's already a shortage of truck drivers out there, so it's not only displacement, but also filling of jobs which do

by k_bx 7y ago

What's interesting is that it seems that there's already a shortage of truck drivers out there, so it's not only displacement, but also filling of jobs which don't have enough people willing to take https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck-driver-shortage-is-on-course-to-double-in-a-decade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck...

orbifold 7y ago
Shortage of a certain type of labor is just an indicator that it doesn’t pay enough. I’ve also got a shortage of Tesla in my garage.
- onion2k 7y ago
  It might indicate that the people are aware that the long term prospects are terrible and would make the investment of time/money a bad idea even if the jobs pay incredibly well right now.
  - pwagland 7y ago
    That just means that it doesn't pay enough though. Imagine this thought experiment, if you could make 1,000,000USD a year from being a truck driver, would you do it? Even if that job only has a 3-4 year lifespan? I suspect that most people would. Obviously 1,000,000 is _too much_, but conversely whatever the current rate is, is probably too low.
    - onion2k 7y ago
      You're looking at the pay in isolation from other career options. Imagine you're 25 and looking for something long term. Do you do trucking knowing that it won't last and you'll have to change to something else later, or do you look for a different career instead? Everyone who thinks it through will choose something else. The current level of pay is attractive to truckers moving to other companies, but it's not much of an incentive to start trucking unless you have no other options.
      - oarsinsync 7y ago
        If I was 25 and offered $1,000,000/year for 2 years as a trucker, or $100,000 as a code monkey, I'd take the trucking job. It helps that I have the benefit of hindsight having only started my career in IT at 27, and done all sorts of other stuff before then, none of which had any long term prospects, nor did it pay $1MM/year.
        woodandsteel 7y ago
        Truck companies can't afford to pay $1,000,000 a year because the industry is too competitive, which keeps the fees trucking companies low. What is basically happening is the trucking companies are living with a shortage of drivers, and waiting for self-driving to arrive.
      - randomdata 7y ago
        If not a million, how about a billion? There must be some price where the cost/benefit analysis tips in favour of trucking?
      - novok 7y ago
        I'd do a 2-4 year stint and with all of my extra savings from being paid $4 million use it to train for some other career I might enjoy better.
  - StavrosK 7y ago
    Well, if they paid you a billion dollars a year, you'd do it, which means that there's a point between a dollar and a billion where you can satisfy demand. The fact that pay is less than that means the grandfather is correct, what you're referring to is just why people feel it doesn't pay well enough.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  It's also an indication that people think it's a shitty job and they would prefer something else.
- Shivetya 7y ago
  it is also an indication of a highly regulated industry which disqualifies a lot of would be workers for better or worse. There are many issues which prevent hiring, ranging from certain felonies on your record, if there are outstanding warrants, and that a CDL comes with drug and alcohol testing. This is on top of the obvious issues with your driving history. While there is this big push to legalize drugs like marijuana it does not negate federal and state rules against its use legal or not and certain occupations.
  - corodra 7y ago
    No. I was a truck driver for almost a year. The job pays like shit. You have to pay $2-5k for classes to get a CDL or get locked in with a company that trains you and you pay back at their variable rates of interest... oh and they "lose payments" often along with charging you high late fees. They take anyone with a heartbeat. It's the ultimate form of equality. If you're dumb enough or desperate enough, they'll take you no matter your gender, race or self identifying whatever. The job pays like crap, you're treated like crap and your body goes to shit real fast. There are regulations, and most of them are pro-trucker, aimed to protect them from abuse by the company. Problem is, a majority of voters have this weird and incredibly stupid fantasy that trucker life equals a cowboy life. Thus, company lobbyists are able to easily manipulate the narrative to the media, public and Congress. Making sure truckers don't get a voice or have a leg to stand on. Most truckers aren't the brightest bulbs in the shed. I had to do it out of desperation from a spat of unemployment. I had a plan and a way out, unlike most of them. What really sucks, most truckers are really good people. They do the job in hopes of putting their families in a better situation. But because the companies run them down and they only get 3-5 days a month of home time, nothing works out as expected. A lot get divorced in their first year or so. Argue? Oh, what's that, there's no loads coming out of butt fuck nowhere Wyoming. Looks like you're stuck there for the week. Btw, you are paid based on miles driven when you have a load. Thus, in that situation, I didn't get a paycheck for the week. And it's one of those jobs that people need to stay in their lane about. If you were never one, you actually don't know the shit they go through. So no, it needs more regulation. The kind of regulations that puts a noose around the company's necks.
    - 7y ago
- randomdata 7y ago
  Technically, a shortage is a situation where price is unable to rise. When something external prevents you from paying more, like the government imposing a price ceiling. A good example in the labour market is doctors. While experience may vary, at least in the jurisdiction I live, it is illegal for a doctor to accept more money from me in order to prioritize my care. Instead, the law mandates that patients are prioritized first by need, second by order of contact (i.e. first come, first served). If the doctors are busy, there is no legal priced-based mechanism for me to incentivize directing their services to me, thus there can be a shortage. I am doubtful that there could be a shortage in the trucking industry. I'm certain if I offered a 30% raise to just about any truck driver, they would jump ship to my operation in a heartbeat. I know of nothing external that would prevent me from doing that. Realistically, I might not be able to pay that much, but that simply means I was never in the market in the first place (as your comment about Tesla alludes to). It is funny how the term shortage is used differently in the labour market when compared to other markets, like cars. I often wonder if it is because people once heard about doctor shortages, which can legitimately happen (depending on local laws), misinterpreted what was being said, and extended that misinterpretation to all types of labour.
- ravar 7y ago
  Tesla cars are probably the only thing you could have picked to not show that point. They can’t make cars fast enough despite charging crazy prices.
Tempest1981 7y ago
The PBS AI special said that many truck drivers are essentially independent contractors. They buy their own truck, and pay for their own fuel and maintenance, which alone can be $120k/yr. The driver interviewed made $22k/yr after expenses. I found the segment: https://www.limitstogrowth.org/articles/2019/11/06/pbs-frontline-surveys-a-future-with-artificial-intelligence/ https://www.limitstogrowth.org/articles/2019/11/06/pbs-front...

by k_bx 7y ago

orbifold 7y ago

Shortage of a certain type of labor is just an indicator that it doesn’t pay enough. I’ve also got a shortage of Tesla in my garage.

onion2k 7y ago
It might indicate that the people are aware that the long term prospects are terrible and would make the investment of time/money a bad idea even if the jobs pay incredibly well right now.
- pwagland 7y ago
  That just means that it doesn't pay enough though. Imagine this thought experiment, if you could make 1,000,000USD a year from being a truck driver, would you do it? Even if that job only has a 3-4 year lifespan? I suspect that most people would. Obviously 1,000,000 is _too much_, but conversely whatever the current rate is, is probably too low.
  - onion2k 7y ago
    You're looking at the pay in isolation from other career options. Imagine you're 25 and looking for something long term. Do you do trucking knowing that it won't last and you'll have to change to something else later, or do you look for a different career instead? Everyone who thinks it through will choose something else. The current level of pay is attractive to truckers moving to other companies, but it's not much of an incentive to start trucking unless you have no other options.
    - oarsinsync 7y ago
      If I was 25 and offered $1,000,000/year for 2 years as a trucker, or $100,000 as a code monkey, I'd take the trucking job. It helps that I have the benefit of hindsight having only started my career in IT at 27, and done all sorts of other stuff before then, none of which had any long term prospects, nor did it pay $1MM/year.
      - woodandsteel 7y ago
        Truck companies can't afford to pay $1,000,000 a year because the industry is too competitive, which keeps the fees trucking companies low. What is basically happening is the trucking companies are living with a shortage of drivers, and waiting for self-driving to arrive.
    - randomdata 7y ago
      If not a million, how about a billion? There must be some price where the cost/benefit analysis tips in favour of trucking?
    - novok 7y ago
      I'd do a 2-4 year stint and with all of my extra savings from being paid $4 million use it to train for some other career I might enjoy better.
- StavrosK 7y ago
  Well, if they paid you a billion dollars a year, you'd do it, which means that there's a point between a dollar and a billion where you can satisfy demand. The fact that pay is less than that means the grandfather is correct, what you're referring to is just why people feel it doesn't pay well enough.
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
It's also an indication that people think it's a shitty job and they would prefer something else.
Shivetya 7y ago
it is also an indication of a highly regulated industry which disqualifies a lot of would be workers for better or worse. There are many issues which prevent hiring, ranging from certain felonies on your record, if there are outstanding warrants, and that a CDL comes with drug and alcohol testing. This is on top of the obvious issues with your driving history. While there is this big push to legalize drugs like marijuana it does not negate federal and state rules against its use legal or not and certain occupations.
- corodra 7y ago
  No. I was a truck driver for almost a year. The job pays like shit. You have to pay $2-5k for classes to get a CDL or get locked in with a company that trains you and you pay back at their variable rates of interest... oh and they "lose payments" often along with charging you high late fees. They take anyone with a heartbeat. It's the ultimate form of equality. If you're dumb enough or desperate enough, they'll take you no matter your gender, race or self identifying whatever. The job pays like crap, you're treated like crap and your body goes to shit real fast. There are regulations, and most of them are pro-trucker, aimed to protect them from abuse by the company. Problem is, a majority of voters have this weird and incredibly stupid fantasy that trucker life equals a cowboy life. Thus, company lobbyists are able to easily manipulate the narrative to the media, public and Congress. Making sure truckers don't get a voice or have a leg to stand on. Most truckers aren't the brightest bulbs in the shed. I had to do it out of desperation from a spat of unemployment. I had a plan and a way out, unlike most of them. What really sucks, most truckers are really good people. They do the job in hopes of putting their families in a better situation. But because the companies run them down and they only get 3-5 days a month of home time, nothing works out as expected. A lot get divorced in their first year or so. Argue? Oh, what's that, there's no loads coming out of butt fuck nowhere Wyoming. Looks like you're stuck there for the week. Btw, you are paid based on miles driven when you have a load. Thus, in that situation, I didn't get a paycheck for the week. And it's one of those jobs that people need to stay in their lane about. If you were never one, you actually don't know the shit they go through. So no, it needs more regulation. The kind of regulations that puts a noose around the company's necks.
  - 7y ago
randomdata 7y ago
Technically, a shortage is a situation where price is unable to rise. When something external prevents you from paying more, like the government imposing a price ceiling. A good example in the labour market is doctors. While experience may vary, at least in the jurisdiction I live, it is illegal for a doctor to accept more money from me in order to prioritize my care. Instead, the law mandates that patients are prioritized first by need, second by order of contact (i.e. first come, first served). If the doctors are busy, there is no legal priced-based mechanism for me to incentivize directing their services to me, thus there can be a shortage. I am doubtful that there could be a shortage in the trucking industry. I'm certain if I offered a 30% raise to just about any truck driver, they would jump ship to my operation in a heartbeat. I know of nothing external that would prevent me from doing that. Realistically, I might not be able to pay that much, but that simply means I was never in the market in the first place (as your comment about Tesla alludes to). It is funny how the term shortage is used differently in the labour market when compared to other markets, like cars. I often wonder if it is because people once heard about doctor shortages, which can legitimately happen (depending on local laws), misinterpreted what was being said, and extended that misinterpretation to all types of labour.
ravar 7y ago
Tesla cars are probably the only thing you could have picked to not show that point. They can’t make cars fast enough despite charging crazy prices.

Tempest1981 7y ago

The PBS AI special said that many truck drivers are essentially independent contractors. They buy their own truck, and pay for their own fuel and maintenance, which alone can be $120k/yr. The driver interviewed made $22k/yr after expenses. I found the segment: https://www.limitstogrowth.org/articles/2019/11/06/pbs-frontline-surveys-a-future-with-artificial-intelligence/ https://www.limitstogrowth.org/articles/2019/11/06/pbs-front...