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For better or worse, millions of truck drivers are going to be displaced. Just like the way robots replaced manufacturing jobs. The best plan is to prepare, li

by Tempest1981 7y ago

For better or worse, millions of truck drivers are going to be displaced. Just like the way robots replaced manufacturing jobs. The best plan is to prepare, like Yang and others are saying: https://www.yang2020.com/policies/trucking-czar/ https://www.yang2020.com/policies/trucking-czar/ So we can soften the blow.

internet_user 7y ago
Yang is acceleration.
- dmos62 7y ago
  Be careful to balance your yang with yin.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
duelingjello 7y ago
We need to create lots of jobs in other industries that allow living wages without a college degree. The government should massively incentivize: - solar farms - wind turbines - battery storage deployments - residential solar w/ batteries and grid-down operation (most grid-tied virtual battery solar stops working completely in a power outage) - achieve fusion power net output - elderly and disabled caregivers - offer an option to teach and mentor people the fundamentals of running a successful small business (expanding SBA/SCORE) - give people a chance to showcase, see and try out different industries - setup a factory incubator to allow bootstrapping and designing efficient, streamlined operations for quality products made in the US at globally-competitive prices. Investing in people and infrastructure brings lots of indirect returns. Do everything possible to help people to succeed and have a future.
- thecleaner 7y ago
  Yeah but what about oil companies ? You know, the people who care the most about humanity.
- bagacrap 7y ago
  These don't sound like drop in replacements for truck driving. A truck driver might not be able-bodied enough to install solar panels, might not be willing to take the pay cut or move to a new state where the job is.
  - triceratops 7y ago
    > might not be willing to take the pay cut A paying job is better than no job. And there is such a thing as minimum wage. And no reason to assume it'll necessarily be a pay cut. EDIT: And according to another comment further down this thread, trucker jobs don't even pay all that well. > move to a new state where the job is. Because that's worse than being away from home/family for long periods of time? I don't understand this logic.
  - WallStUrinal 7y ago
    $1,000/mo isn't a drop in replacement for trucking either, is it?
- einpoklum 7y ago
  "need to create lots of jobs etc." Why? Is there something you're missing that requires a lot more workers? The assumption that people need to be fit into "jobs" is, well, a salaried employment fetish; or the moral assumption that if you don't work a job you don't deserve goods and services. Now, it's true that there actually is a whole lot of work in setting up and distributing alternative energy devices and infrasturcture. But overall, a lot of human labor is becoming redundant with automation, and there aren't "more jobs than people". Getting people to artificially create businesses as an alternative to salaried employment is also no solution. PS - "At globally-competitive prices" = "Make workers compete with sweatshop pseudo-slave-labor in other countries, thus ensuring their own poverty and overwork."
tootahe45 7y ago
They already have been displaced largely due to propaganda which is why we have record remuneration and demand for truck drivers. Musk already failed the 2020 goal, so I think it's important to decide when exactly they will be replaced. Will they replace log truck drivers in New Zealand like my brother, who has a ton of responsibilities other than just driving on single-lane off-road tracks (which requires special protocols for safety, etc)?
k_bx 7y ago
What's interesting is that it seems that there's already a shortage of truck drivers out there, so it's not only displacement, but also filling of jobs which don't have enough people willing to take https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck-driver-shortage-is-on-course-to-double-in-a-decade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck...
- orbifold 7y ago
  Shortage of a certain type of labor is just an indicator that it doesn’t pay enough. I’ve also got a shortage of Tesla in my garage.
  - onion2k 7y ago
    It might indicate that the people are aware that the long term prospects are terrible and would make the investment of time/money a bad idea even if the jobs pay incredibly well right now.
    - pwagland 7y ago
      That just means that it doesn't pay enough though. Imagine this thought experiment, if you could make 1,000,000USD a year from being a truck driver, would you do it? Even if that job only has a 3-4 year lifespan? I suspect that most people would. Obviously 1,000,000 is _too much_, but conversely whatever the current rate is, is probably too low.
      - onion2k 7y ago
        You're looking at the pay in isolation from other career options. Imagine you're 25 and looking for something long term. Do you do trucking knowing that it won't last and you'll have to change to something else later, or do you look for a different career instead? Everyone who thinks it through will choose something else. The current level of pay is attractive to truckers moving to other companies, but it's not much of an incentive to start trucking unless you have no other options.
dsfyu404ed 7y ago
Everyone is crying doom and gloom but I see a mostly seamless transition. The more cargo management responsibilities a driver has the later they will get automated. These are also the most senior and well paid drivers. Truck drivers who will be replaced first are going to be the steering wheel holders that drag a dry van from loading dock to loading dock. These are also the most junior and poorly paid drivers. As automation takes over we'll have fewer people taking entry level trucking jobs (because the jobs won't exist or the pay will be too low) and the industry will automate the harder jobs as the supply of experienced enough drivers slowly drives up and pushed the cost of a driver for those jobs high enough to be worth automating. I'm sure some people will lose their jobs but I doubt we'll see millions of unemployed truckers and the value of a CDL tank.
- Doxin 7y ago
  > Truck drivers who will be replaced first are going to be the steering wheel holders that drag a dry van from loading dock to loading dock. These are also the most junior and poorly paid drivers. These junior and poorly paid drivers are humans who need to eat first of all. If we automate their jobs away we need to come up with a way where that doesn't result in undue hardship. That said I think you're underestimating how many poorly paid junior truck drivers there are. I don't think there'll be enough cargo management jobs to catch all truck drivers, not by a wide margin. Don't forget that currently the cargo management jobs are already being done by people. It's not like it's a new category of work that didn't exist before. The amount of job available is going to shrink significantly if trucks get automated. No matter from which angle you look at it that means people are going to need to work less. Which in practice means that people are going to earn less. We need to figure out how to deal with that before it happens. Maybe it resolves itself and that's fine, but assuming it will is playing dangerous games with the food source of people you don't know.
snarf21 7y ago
It will also have ripples. What about all the small truck stops and diners that will slowly have less and less customers. These long haul runs will be pretty easy to automate away with automated refueling stations. All metro or major warehouse areas will have depots where the automated trips start/end and people will handle the last 5% of more difficult local driving and delivery.

internet_user 7y ago

Yang is acceleration.

dmos62 7y ago
Be careful to balance your yang with yin.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

duelingjello 7y ago

We need to create lots of jobs in other industries that allow living wages without a college degree. The government should massively incentivize: - solar farms - wind turbines - battery storage deployments - residential solar w/ batteries and grid-down operation (most grid-tied virtual battery solar stops working completely in a power outage) - achieve fusion power net output - elderly and disabled caregivers - offer an option to teach and mentor people the fundamentals of running a successful small business (expanding SBA/SCORE) - give people a chance to showcase, see and try out different industries - setup a factory incubator to allow bootstrapping and designing efficient, streamlined operations for quality products made in the US at globally-competitive prices. Investing in people and infrastructure brings lots of indirect returns. Do everything possible to help people to succeed and have a future.

thecleaner 7y ago
Yeah but what about oil companies ? You know, the people who care the most about humanity.
bagacrap 7y ago
These don't sound like drop in replacements for truck driving. A truck driver might not be able-bodied enough to install solar panels, might not be willing to take the pay cut or move to a new state where the job is.
- triceratops 7y ago
  > might not be willing to take the pay cut A paying job is better than no job. And there is such a thing as minimum wage. And no reason to assume it'll necessarily be a pay cut. EDIT: And according to another comment further down this thread, trucker jobs don't even pay all that well. > move to a new state where the job is. Because that's worse than being away from home/family for long periods of time? I don't understand this logic.
- WallStUrinal 7y ago
  $1,000/mo isn't a drop in replacement for trucking either, is it?
einpoklum 7y ago
"need to create lots of jobs etc." Why? Is there something you're missing that requires a lot more workers? The assumption that people need to be fit into "jobs" is, well, a salaried employment fetish; or the moral assumption that if you don't work a job you don't deserve goods and services. Now, it's true that there actually is a whole lot of work in setting up and distributing alternative energy devices and infrasturcture. But overall, a lot of human labor is becoming redundant with automation, and there aren't "more jobs than people". Getting people to artificially create businesses as an alternative to salaried employment is also no solution. PS - "At globally-competitive prices" = "Make workers compete with sweatshop pseudo-slave-labor in other countries, thus ensuring their own poverty and overwork."

tootahe45 7y ago

They already have been displaced largely due to propaganda which is why we have record remuneration and demand for truck drivers. Musk already failed the 2020 goal, so I think it's important to decide when exactly they will be replaced. Will they replace log truck drivers in New Zealand like my brother, who has a ton of responsibilities other than just driving on single-lane off-road tracks (which requires special protocols for safety, etc)?

k_bx 7y ago

What's interesting is that it seems that there's already a shortage of truck drivers out there, so it's not only displacement, but also filling of jobs which don't have enough people willing to take https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck-driver-shortage-is-on-course-to-double-in-a-decade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/u-s-truck...

orbifold 7y ago
Shortage of a certain type of labor is just an indicator that it doesn’t pay enough. I’ve also got a shortage of Tesla in my garage.
- onion2k 7y ago
  It might indicate that the people are aware that the long term prospects are terrible and would make the investment of time/money a bad idea even if the jobs pay incredibly well right now.
  - pwagland 7y ago
    That just means that it doesn't pay enough though. Imagine this thought experiment, if you could make 1,000,000USD a year from being a truck driver, would you do it? Even if that job only has a 3-4 year lifespan? I suspect that most people would. Obviously 1,000,000 is _too much_, but conversely whatever the current rate is, is probably too low.
    - onion2k 7y ago
      You're looking at the pay in isolation from other career options. Imagine you're 25 and looking for something long term. Do you do trucking knowing that it won't last and you'll have to change to something else later, or do you look for a different career instead? Everyone who thinks it through will choose something else. The current level of pay is attractive to truckers moving to other companies, but it's not much of an incentive to start trucking unless you have no other options.

dsfyu404ed 7y ago

Everyone is crying doom and gloom but I see a mostly seamless transition. The more cargo management responsibilities a driver has the later they will get automated. These are also the most senior and well paid drivers. Truck drivers who will be replaced first are going to be the steering wheel holders that drag a dry van from loading dock to loading dock. These are also the most junior and poorly paid drivers. As automation takes over we'll have fewer people taking entry level trucking jobs (because the jobs won't exist or the pay will be too low) and the industry will automate the harder jobs as the supply of experienced enough drivers slowly drives up and pushed the cost of a driver for those jobs high enough to be worth automating. I'm sure some people will lose their jobs but I doubt we'll see millions of unemployed truckers and the value of a CDL tank.

Doxin 7y ago
> Truck drivers who will be replaced first are going to be the steering wheel holders that drag a dry van from loading dock to loading dock. These are also the most junior and poorly paid drivers. These junior and poorly paid drivers are humans who need to eat first of all. If we automate their jobs away we need to come up with a way where that doesn't result in undue hardship. That said I think you're underestimating how many poorly paid junior truck drivers there are. I don't think there'll be enough cargo management jobs to catch all truck drivers, not by a wide margin. Don't forget that currently the cargo management jobs are already being done by people. It's not like it's a new category of work that didn't exist before. The amount of job available is going to shrink significantly if trucks get automated. No matter from which angle you look at it that means people are going to need to work less. Which in practice means that people are going to earn less. We need to figure out how to deal with that before it happens. Maybe it resolves itself and that's fine, but assuming it will is playing dangerous games with the food source of people you don't know.

snarf21 7y ago

It will also have ripples. What about all the small truck stops and diners that will slowly have less and less customers. These long haul runs will be pretty easy to automate away with automated refueling stations. All metro or major warehouse areas will have depots where the automated trips start/end and people will handle the last 5% of more difficult local driving and delivery.