2 ms·
I'm not quite following what you mean. Sure, you can change the probability and make one side arbitrarily likely to win by appropriate wording. (Heck, just take
by gwern 7y ago
I'm not quite following what you mean. Sure, you can change the probability and make one side arbitrarily likely to win by appropriate wording. (Heck, just take one of the existing predictions which has ~0% probability - there's plenty of them.) That doesn't change the problem that you can only win at most twice the money you put up despite locking it up arbitrarily long.