Glubb's theory of the arc of empires is strongly influenced by Toynbee's A Study of History, which was in turn informed by the 20th century zeitgeist of histori

Glubb's theory of the arc of empires is strongly influenced by Toynbee's A Study of History, which was in turn informed by the 20th century zeitgeist of historicism (a belief in recurring patterns of history), initiated by Marx, refuted by Popper, but ultimately going back to Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah. Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning follows in this tradition.