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It should be possible to turn an odds bet into an even-money bet with some financial engineering. Like "I predict that either we will have talking horses, or th
by dmurray 7y ago
It should be possible to turn an odds bet into an even-money bet with some financial engineering. Like "I predict that either we will have talking horses, or the last two digits in the Dow will be between 0 and 45." Probably there's a way to do it with cryptography too.
This only solves one of the issues you identify. But I've always seen LB as a publicity gimmick rather than a serious marketplace.
- gwern 7y agoI'm not quite following what you mean. Sure, you can change the probability and make one side arbitrarily likely to win by appropriate wording. (Heck, just take one of the existing predictions which has ~0% probability - there's plenty of them.) That doesn't change the problem that you can only win at most twice the money you put up despite locking it up arbitrarily long.