7 ms·

is 7% a reasonable 90 year return? I would guess closer to 1-2% would be reasonable over that time frame, which puts you in the black at year 90 even at 90% con

is 7% a reasonable 90 year return? I would guess closer to 1-2% would be reasonable over that time frame, which puts you in the black at year 90 even at 90% confidence.

adrianN 7y ago
The variance over 90 years must be huge.
jefftk 7y ago
These are nominal returns, but when you say 1-2% it sounds like you're talking about real returns? I use nominal returns in the post because Long Bets keeps half of the investment income without any accounting for inflation.