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It's not clear from the article what is novel about subx forecasting beyond its time frame and potential applications. Are there other sources that dive deeper
by ShroudedNight 7y ago
It's not clear from the article what is novel about subx forecasting beyond its time frame and potential applications. Are there other sources that dive deeper into its mechanics and clarify the distinguishing features that would allow it to produce usefully accurate predictions on these more distant futures?
- semi-extrinsic 7y agoThis is the journal paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1 It looks like they are focusing on "sources of predictability", i.e. weather phenomena on sub-seasonal scale that can be observed and then it can be predicted what will happen next. So the methodology works better in certain areas of the world where well-defined sub-seasonal oscillations in the weather are found. They have used an ensemble of different models, and have done predictions on several decades of weather data, as well as one year of "live" predictions and comparison to what actually happens. From what I can tell, it seems like the best predictions can explain ~16% of the observed variation in weather.