5 ms·

There is a huge problem with the "optimal stopping strategy" presented in the YouTube video: "sample the first 37% of the options, and then choose the first sub

by whack 7y ago

There is a huge problem with the "optimal stopping strategy" presented in the YouTube video: "sample the first 37% of the options, and then choose the first subsequent option that is better than the best option found in the sample." By definition, there is a 37% chance of the best option being in your initial sample. You would then futilely browse through all the other options, without ever picking anything. Ie, if you applied this strategy to "finding the love of your life", as the video suggests, there is a 37% chance of you dying completely alone. That doesn't seem like a very optimal strategy to me.

spencey 7y ago
I haven't seen the video but if they are talking about the secretary problem the caveat is that you can't go back to the previous options. You can do that when trying to a find a partner... sometimes.
codetrotter 7y ago
> Ie, if you applied this strategy to "finding the love of your life", as the video suggests, there is a 37% chance of you dying completely alone. That doesn't seem like a very optimal strategy to me. I don't think that's correct. You'd set a period of time such as 1 year or 3 years or 5 years or something during which time you will go on n amount of dates total, out of which you reject the first 37%. Then you use that as a basis for the remaining time of that period of time. If you haven't found anyone better by the last date of that time, and you have chemistry with them, you choose that last person to be the love of your life. And if you don't have chemistry with the last person or you end up breaking up with that person, then you go on dates until you find the next person you have chemistry with and you choose them to be the love of your life. So it's not like dying completely alone is a probable outcome that would result from the optimal stopping strategy itself.

by whack 7y ago

spencey 7y ago

I haven't seen the video but if they are talking about the secretary problem the caveat is that you can't go back to the previous options. You can do that when trying to a find a partner... sometimes.

codetrotter 7y ago

> Ie, if you applied this strategy to "finding the love of your life", as the video suggests, there is a 37% chance of you dying completely alone. That doesn't seem like a very optimal strategy to me. I don't think that's correct. You'd set a period of time such as 1 year or 3 years or 5 years or something during which time you will go on n amount of dates total, out of which you reject the first 37%. Then you use that as a basis for the remaining time of that period of time. If you haven't found anyone better by the last date of that time, and you have chemistry with them, you choose that last person to be the love of your life. And if you don't have chemistry with the last person or you end up breaking up with that person, then you go on dates until you find the next person you have chemistry with and you choose them to be the love of your life. So it's not like dying completely alone is a probable outcome that would result from the optimal stopping strategy itself.