4 ms·

I've been a Google shareholder for more than 10 years, and I would love it if Alphabet spun off Waymo so I could dump my Waymo stock. My view is that the marke

by MarkMc 7y ago

I've been a Google shareholder for more than 10 years, and I would love it if Alphabet spun off Waymo so I could dump my Waymo stock. My view is that the market undervalues Google and overvalues Waymo but unfortunately Mr Page and Mr Brin force me to invest in both.

repsilat 7y ago
Funny, I'm sure a lot of people think the opposite, and that only proves your point more.
- OnlineGladiator 7y ago
  As someone intimately familiar with the world of self-driving cars (and their investors, and their enthusiasts) - yes. There are many people who believe Waymo is going to be ridiculously valuable because they are certain (almost always based on being wildly misinformed) that it is going to magically blanket the planet in robotaxis in a handful of years. I would love to short Waymo. And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat - who is well known for hating risky bets - I don't see a bright future for the company. And working conditions there have already deteriorated to the point where most talented people don't stay (just check glassdoor reviews if you don't believe me). I'm pretty sure Larry and Sergei wanted their legacy to be Waymo. I'm pretty sure Ruth Porat wants her legacy to be killing Waymo.
  - hobofan 7y ago
    > And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat Both Larry and Sergei are still on the board, so I don't see what changed? If you are thinking along that route, wouldn't it be more important what Sundar Pichai's opinion on Waymo is?
    - OnlineGladiator 7y ago
      I think Larry and Sergei have been slowly removing themselves from Google/Alphabet over the past several years. You're right about Sundar having a large say in the matter, but he seems focused on search and AI (Waymo is not AI - I am too lazy to argue why right now). Ruth Porat, however, has always had it out for the projects at X - and Waymo is the big one that hemorrhages money (even by Alphabet standards) and makes pathetic revenue (even by non-Alphabet standards). The screws are definitely going to tighten, moreso than they already have. The majority of the original talent that made up Waymo left years ago - that doesn't happen when you're on the brink of an actual breakthrough that can truly transform the world for the better. If Waymo can't pull a rabbit out of its hat, it's going to the Google graveyard. This isn't going to play out immediately, it will take a few years.

by MarkMc 7y ago

repsilat 7y ago

Funny, I'm sure a lot of people think the opposite, and that only proves your point more.

OnlineGladiator 7y ago
As someone intimately familiar with the world of self-driving cars (and their investors, and their enthusiasts) - yes. There are many people who believe Waymo is going to be ridiculously valuable because they are certain (almost always based on being wildly misinformed) that it is going to magically blanket the planet in robotaxis in a handful of years. I would love to short Waymo. And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat - who is well known for hating risky bets - I don't see a bright future for the company. And working conditions there have already deteriorated to the point where most talented people don't stay (just check glassdoor reviews if you don't believe me). I'm pretty sure Larry and Sergei wanted their legacy to be Waymo. I'm pretty sure Ruth Porat wants her legacy to be killing Waymo.
- hobofan 7y ago
  > And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat Both Larry and Sergei are still on the board, so I don't see what changed? If you are thinking along that route, wouldn't it be more important what Sundar Pichai's opinion on Waymo is?
  - OnlineGladiator 7y ago
    I think Larry and Sergei have been slowly removing themselves from Google/Alphabet over the past several years. You're right about Sundar having a large say in the matter, but he seems focused on search and AI (Waymo is not AI - I am too lazy to argue why right now). Ruth Porat, however, has always had it out for the projects at X - and Waymo is the big one that hemorrhages money (even by Alphabet standards) and makes pathetic revenue (even by non-Alphabet standards). The screws are definitely going to tighten, moreso than they already have. The majority of the original talent that made up Waymo left years ago - that doesn't happen when you're on the brink of an actual breakthrough that can truly transform the world for the better. If Waymo can't pull a rabbit out of its hat, it's going to the Google graveyard. This isn't going to play out immediately, it will take a few years.