That probably depends on how similar a given project is to projects done in the past. I suppose that a developer that does the same kind of thing (like Web CRUD

That probably depends on how similar a given project is to projects done in the past. I suppose that a developer that does the same kind of thing (like Web CRUD apps) over and over would be able to accurately determine how long a new one would take, but if their work often varies in domain (a webapp, a compiler, a bootloader, a console emulator, a 3d screensaver, an email client, a sound editor, etc.), then I think not. In other words, I think how accurately one can predict the time it takes depends on how repetitive the work is, and I don't think doing more repetitive work necessarily means that a programmer is better.