11 ms·

The Siege of Carrie Lam

187 points by raleighm 7y ago

sumgame 7y ago
‘ No one on either side of the conflict , then or now, has a satisfactory theory of why Carrie Lam won’t form an independent inquiry into police violence, the demand that is the emotional core of the protests.’ Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police violence ? The Hong Kong situation is still quite baffling. I initially thought that the emotional motivation was independence. But it seems like that’s not the crux of the issue
- pgeorgi 7y ago
  > I initially thought that the emotional motivation was independence. More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of China as long as they can keep their self-governance. And that ties in to your question: > Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police violence ? Such an inquiry would emphasize HK's autonomy (and also paint government as potentially fallible, something the party doesn't like to see discussed). On the other hand: does China have anything to win with such an inquiry? I can't see anything (there are four more demands and giving in on this would likely increase support for demanding the rest), so for them it's all risk and no gain.
  - jandrese 7y ago
    > More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of China as long as they can keep their self-governance. So they don't mind being a part of China so long as they aren't actually a part of China. I can't blame them either, the current system has worked out well for the island, and China's internal polices have not had quite as much success on the mainland. But Chinese officials were pretty clear from the start that they intended to integrated HK eventually and that the semi-detached existence was only temporary. They see this as inevitable and the HL population is just dragging their heels on something that has to happen in the end.
    - nailer 7y ago
      I think some folk in the west naively assumed that a wealthy populace on the mainland would get tired of corruption and rule by self appointed officials, and eventually liberalise. Harmony would be achieved this way. Instead China is implementing totalitarianism on a first world region and the Cantonese hate it.
      - bllguo 7y ago
        HK is largely cantonese but not all cantonese are from hong kong. let's use accurate language
- samstave 7y ago
  There is nothing baffling about this. CLam is clearly under the duress of the CCP - and not just for the simplistic reasons of her maintaining her own face/position/power/etc... She is the lynchpin of CCP control in HK. So, lets assume she caves to the protesters... (wont happen), she would wreak the ire of the CCP - and obv, she is as much of a leach oligarch as the rest - so she clearly cant choose the cup in front of her. Now, if she were to take the strong arm of the CCP against the protesters, she would wreak the havoc of the international sanction prospects of the world abroad. So she clearly cannot choose the cup in front of you... What she does know is that the global authoritarian regimes have spent the last few years building an immunity to Protester-Murder Requiring-Protester-Backlash-in-the-face-of-economic-and-geo-political-gains.
- Danieru 7y ago
  A commission would mean giving ground. It would mean China is no longer 100% protecting the thugs dressed in "police" uniforms. Thuggery is not a new thing, common to all crime families is a "protection" for the foot soldiers. If a foot soldier messes up the boss takes responsibility, admonishes the criminal, and the criminal is thankful for getting off without justice. We see this common behaviour in the American mafia, the Japanese Yakuza, and currupt police departments, and clearly China's Hong Kong occupiers.
- bobthepanda 7y ago
  At this point it’s to save face. Xi’s China and its media basically backed itself into a corner by painting the protests as instigated by foreign-funded terrorists. Accepting the demands would be seen as major backpedaling, and might - cause PRC citizens to also start demanding accountability - cause nationalistic protests about kowtowing to what was described as terrorists
  - idlewords 7y ago
    A problem with that analysis is that they already caved on the chief demand (formal withdrawal of the bill), after saying all summer it wouldn't happen.
    - DonaldFisk 7y ago
      It's worth pointing out that the bill was introduced in order to extradite someone who was accused of murdering his girlfriend in Taiwan, with which Hong Kong didn't have an extradition treaty, but it wasn't sufficiently narrow in scope to do just that, which caused fear that it could have been used in future to extradite citizens to mainland China.
      - gwd 7y ago
        Yes. One of the side effects of being a liar is that nobody trusts you even when you're telling the truth; one of the side effects of having a corrupt legal system is that nobody trusts you, even with actual murderers. EDIT: It's worth pointing out that this is why Ecuador gave Assange asylum: it was clear that the UK and US legal systems were being politically corrupted. The political corruption of the legal system is just much more systematic in China.
    - mrob 7y ago
      It's not really withdrawn, it's just postponed for 28 years. "One country, two systems" expires in 2047, and the mainland government takes the long view.
Lucasoato 7y ago
Rip democracy
- guramarx11 7y ago
  yep, RISE In Peace ;)
irjustin 7y ago
Best of luck to the HK people. I called it home for better part of 2 years. I lived in Wan Chai on Hennessy rd near the computer center. Plenty of atrocities committed - people being shipped off in train cars reminiscent of pre-WWII photos that I have only learned about in school. Best wishes. [EDIT] I agree I should have said alleged atrocities. Sadly, hardly anyone left in HK is impartial but hopefully independent enough investigations are opened. To the trains - I was referring to this I saw a few weeks ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporting_prisoners_by_train_potentially/ https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporti... It is not a good look loading anyone in trains who is captive. True, we don't know where they're headed, could be fine - it's a bad look given the situation.
- battleangle 7y ago
  "people being shipped off in train cars reminiscent of pre-WWII photos that I have only learned about in school." There is absolutely no corroborated evidence whatsoever that this happened. Just like the alleged rapes. I'm not saying that these things did not happen, but absolutely no credible evidence on these claims up until now.
  - MagnumOpus 7y ago
    > absolutely no corroborated evidence There is video and photo evidence from multiple sources on Twitter. There have been extensive reports of victims like British consulate worker Simon Cheng being abducted to the mainland and being tortured. Obviously there wont be any "corroboration" from the PRC state security agency or police...
    - battleangle 7y ago
      "There have been extensive reports of victims like British consulate worker Simon Cheng being abducted to the mainland and being tortured." Did you even see his interview with the BBC? Legally would not say anything about his hiring of prostitutes. No medical evience of the torture he claimed. The only hard evidence that was provided were CCTV tapes of him going into local massage joint. You would think that if he didn't obtain the services of sex workers he would come out and say it. Interesting that the British also let him go. I've seen those videos. You have to be kidding if that's sufficient evidence to say they are being shipped off to Chinese black camps. As for the alleged rapes - the evidence is even more lacking. The primary source used is a facebook account using a pseudonym who claims he's an emergency doctor who then says he "swears" that he's telling the truth. Everyone needs to be held to a basic standard of logic and scrutiny, not a double standard simply because one might agree with the ideals of a group. There are numerous ludicrous claims on the government and police side. But the same stands for protesters as well.
battleangle 7y ago
The Hong Kong situation is much more complicated than mainstream media outside Hong Kong would like the world to believe, but that goes without saying. The issue with the current HK government at the end of the day is that Carrie Lam is a second rate administrator and is wildly unqualified for handling the current situation in HK. Worse yet, she has one of the worst cabinets / teams ever assembled (you would need to be familiar with local HK politics to know this). In other words, HK couldn't have had a worse group to lead the city at this point in time. Having said that, Carrie is completely reliant on the police force at this stage. There is no way she agrees to an independent inquiry or any major moves against the police. At least not right now. I'd say that the independent inquriy may be something that can be compromised on at some point. But universal suffrage is out of the question, and demands 3 and 4 would never be accepted by the rest of Hong Kong nor would any reasonable person accept it given what has taken place since the original protests. In fact one of the key issues is that "the protest" isn't just one unified movement that has been moving forward since its inception.
- adaml_623 7y ago
  Interesting to me to summarise the talking points being pushed by this battleangle sock puppet account: * Issues in HK are internal to HK. Caused by HK population and HK administrators and HK police * There is no influence by the CCP on HK issues * The protest in HK is asking for unreasonable things and isn't united. * There is no evidence of people being deported out of HK or assaulted by government forces from outside HK. Also, as you would expect, personal attacks are being aimed at witnesses of events that contradict this story. And doubts are cast at video evidence. It's pretty clear that there is an attempt to paint a disconnect between HK China and Mainland China
  - jacobush 7y ago
    I don't know, the propaganda accounts are usually much more blunt. This one has nuanced words. Painting Carrie Lam as relying on the police and force etc.
  - battleangle 7y ago
    As usual, rather than offer actual counterpoints, you resort to ad hominem attacks and complete misrepresentation of what I stated. - nowhere did I state issues in HK are internal to HK only. There's obvious influence by interested parties outside of HK as well. - HK is under the CCP. Of course there's influence. I never stated this either. I stated that the influence is much less than what media would like you to belive. - I specifically stated that 2 of the demands are unreasonable, and a third will never be tolerated by the CCP. The protest movement certainly isn't a united cause for Hong Kong as a whole. That's what I stated. Even in the recent local elections the pro-protest candidates garnered on average less than 60% of the votes despite record turn out on their side. - There indeed is no hard and credible evidence that people are being deported out of HK into China. That's what I stated. I did not state that none have been assaulted by government forces. " personal attacks are being aimed at witnesses of events that contradict this story" umm...what personal attacks? Do you even know that the evidence of an emergency doctor saying the rapes occurred is by a "Dr. Ray" on Facebook? He also wrote in Chinese that his evidence is that "if he is lying, may the people and heavens judge him". Unfortunately most people buying into the claim don't read Chinese. Now that I've pointed out your completely unbased claims and obvious disingenuity and lack of integrity, perhaps you want to provide evidence of claims to the contrary rather than your illogical rabble. *yes I'm a brand new account. I usually only read posts here, but I'm from HK and it's an issue close to heart. I'm sick of the misrepresentation of what's actually happening being reinforced by people who have very little knowledge of Hong Kong if they have even ever visited or lived there at all.
ng12 7y ago
I'm not sure I buy the argument that Lam is just a bumbling politician failing to deal with a crisis when she's backed by the most powerful authoritarian regime in the world.
- battleangle 7y ago
  Yeah it's hard to believe, but that's part of the issue. She's never been a politician, and was a second rate administrator / civil servant at best before she was chosen for the position. I think that we often overestimate the abilities of leaders everywhere in the world... In addition, China is happy to let Carrie and HK stumble...to a certain extent of course. But they truly have been very hands off on the HK protests. I think it's worth noting that China is perfectly fine with HK getting burned by itself just as long certain lines aren't crossed (independence, violence against PLA, etc.). They weren't worried about losing HK when it was under British colonial rule, they certainly aren't worried now. Furthermore, things really aren't that bad considering how the media has been reporting HK. It's still an extremely well-to-do city and life goes on in most parts.
  - bobthepanda 7y ago
    To add onto it, she was basically picked because the other potential candidate was a little too good at being a politician, and campaigned for the position without Beijing’s blessing.
    - idlewords 7y ago
      You can't just mention him in passing and not say that he was widely known as Mr. Pringles, for his majestic moustache!
      - yowlingcat 7y ago
        Were I to achieve not just being a successful politician, but one known as Mr. Pringles. What a life.
- 7y ago
mamborambo 7y ago
The hopeless situation of Carrie Lam fronting the CCP and having to execute its policy, is what drove Hong Kong into the people's revolution of 2019. Under the CCP, local administrators do not need ideas, just obedience. Carrie Lam's misfortune was to be sandwiched between the increasing paranoia of Xi Jin Ping, and the increasing rebelliousness of HKers, and she has no strategy to resolve the two forces. Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side. She is after all a HK citizen and its representative even without true election. Seven million rebels can parallelize a city, but pissing off a few thousand bureaucrats in the politburo simply leads to tantrums and rhetorics. If she had done that, HK's economy would not have stalled, HKers would rally behind her, and the whole Two System debate could be channelled into a consultation process that can remain civil and reasonable. HKers will not forgive her for her missteps and police brutality that led to thousands of arrested and hundreds of maimed/injured/raped/dead. That will always be her legacy. But HKers can thank her incompetence for triggering the nationalistic feeling of a Hongkonger. The city of immigrants and world refugees has never been so clearly in sync, and the common enemy so in focus.
- navaati 7y ago
  > Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side. Could she ? Wouldn’t she have been "disappeared" as well as her family ? Not trying to excuse anything of course, she chose her side a long time ago, but still…
  - jacobush 7y ago
    I also believe this. She could only have said something somewhat safely from exile.
    - treden 7y ago
      An important aspect of leadership is the courage to do the right thing, even at risk to one's own personal comfort and safety. In light of facts, you could make the argument that either she doesn't believe in the importance of sovereignty for her fellow citizens, or she doesn't have the courage to speak up for it.
coatHanger-gov 7y ago
Gee, how do we fix Hong Kong? Oh, how will we ever fix Hong Kong? It's like hey, maybe if it didn't represent a choice between mandatory abortions and sterilization, or not, this wouldn't be such a big deal. But you put that on the table, and now people consider laying their life on the line, no big deal. If push comes to shove, a forced abortion or mandatory sterilization will put anyone in the mood for some unceremonious destruction, burn victims and brain damage, no contest. No negotiations. Sane people don't knowingly acquiesce to those kinds of laws. What could any government possibly offer, and realistically deliver, in exchange for the general freedom to reproduce? Probably only one thing: the barrel of a gun.
spyckie2 7y ago
As an ABC who currently lives in HK but has no ties to Asia (born and raised in the US) and has no personal interest in what's happening in HK, what I observe is a global increase in pace of change affecting this generation across the entire world, with drastically different results per region / body of people based on their current economic, cultural, and political positions. I think earthquakes are a good illustration of what's happening. Energy that builds up, friction developed between tectonic plates that gets released, either violently or smoothly, with varying levels of impact depending on the geological conditions surrounding it. In the US, I mostly agree with the high level view that Andrew Yang ascribes (which is actually just the technocrat doom and gloom point of view) - economic changes that created waves of discontent, with an unconscious realization that problems have become too big for individuals alone to deal with, demanding escalation to the government level to solve, bringing in a feeling that we need something radically different (Trump) to handle the observed radical differences that the 21st century world is bringing in. In Asia, the socio-economic changes that are happening are the same as the US, except instead of having the strongest economy in the world with a wealth of resources, education, a progressive history and lots of national-level experience in dealing with shocking changes, you have... exactly what you see in HK. Asian culture, stemming from confucian values, encourage and promote people to power who like to keep things the same way and discourage adaptation (harmony in society is defined as minimizing conflict which usually means not rocking the boat). While the US (at least compared to other countries) has a system in place that can handle mistakes, has a rich history of how to handle change and how to properly push for progressive value shifts, the whole of Asia lacks all of that experience as a culture. What you have is a bunch of the older generation who are used to the old way of doing things, and see the world more similar to the godfather era rather than modern society. The rest of society has a value to not rock the boat and to care for outward harmony over bring up legitimate issues. This yields an environment where people are just not "trained for change". The actions that the current Asian political powers are taking look primitive to anyone who has lived in modern society and has observed how progressive shifts actually take place (and many have taken place over the last 5-10 years). It will be very interesting to see how Asia adapts because modern society isn't going anywhere, it's actually speeding up and clashing more and more with how the older generation wants things to be.
- 7y ago
kenneth 7y ago
(For context — am an expat living in HK.) Living in HK the last few months has been frustrating for me, primarily because of growing spread of misinformation and the untrustworthy reporting on the situation. It's getting hard to know what information to believe, and that's even for myself living here, who has seen all of it from my own eyes. How could you expect anyone reading the news or social media from a foreign country to be reacting to valid information? The western media is making it sound like Hong Kong is Syria. Protester private channels makes wild unfounded claims about mass-scale executions and rapes. Chinese media makes it sound like HK is under siege by terrorists. SCMP's reporting is increasingly suspiciously lacking and pro-establishment. The government is entirely untrustworthy and straight up lying about everything and anything. There are a few people doing good work (e.g. OSINT HK), but it's not enough to rise about the noise drowning it all out. Of course the real situation is more nuanced. It's also all entirely pointless, with no hope for de-escalation or positive resolution. That said, it's also not nearly as dramatic and disrupting to daily life as you'd expect. Living in HK is still far safer than in downtown San Francisco (or anywhere in the US for that matter). For those wishing to stay out of it, avoiding protests is fairly easy (I mean — unless you live in Mong Kong or Prince Edward). The handful of times I ended up right in the middle of it, nobody really cared to bother any bystanders. The government seems to be on a mission to do anything in its power to make things worse, from repeatedly escalating the situation through violence, inflammatory policy, and generally being a party-pooper and cancelling all ordinary celebrations (e.g. Halloween). Today, walking down the street in Sai Ying Pun, I observed workers replacing the wooden paneling they've been installing in front of the mainland Chinese banks to protect them from the thrashings with welded metal paneling. It was somewhat of a sign that they're getting ready for this to continue in the long term.
- idlewords 7y ago
  On the question of how to get reliable reporting from Hong Kong, the answer is Twitter! I've been keeping a list of great local reporters tweeting in English from on the scene. Many of them also write for established news outlets, but the tweets are more timely and very often more nuanced: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/lists/hong-kong https://twitter.com/Pinboard/lists/hong-kong
- 7y ago
metabork 7y ago
Are there any good reasons to support the take that the extradition law was Lam's own initiative and not pushed for by China ?
- idlewords 7y ago
  James Palmer writing in August in Foreign Policy gives what is the consensus view among journalists in Hong Kong: "Analysts generally believe that the bill was the initiative of Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, not a measure suggested or strongly pushed from Beijing. Lam may have been aiming to please the Chinese authorities and strengthen her position, or it may have been an attempt to put a formal procedure in place in order to circumvent the Chinese authorities from simply kidnapping Hong Kongers." https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-erupting-protests-china-extradition/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-erupti...
  - metabork 7y ago
    Thanks, my impression was that Beijing tried to quickly capitalize on an opportunity that presented itself with the Taiwan murder - if this is really Lam's own doing then the level of either stupidity or self-dealing is staggering.
Merrill 7y ago
The CCP is probably content to let the HK situation continue to fester. The economic role of HK relative to the PRC will continue to wane. HK will continue to be portrayed as an object lesson in the dysfunction of democracy. The CCP can assert control whenever it needs to by simply turning off the water and electrical supply.
anm89 7y ago
It's really sad to say but a vicious fight, even with no endgame seems to be the only sensible move for the Hong Kong people at this point. At least, if they get pummeled, in the end, it will be extremely clear that whatever happened was not consensual and will set them up to fight another round down the line.
iandinwoodie 7y ago
Off topic, but the site creator should really toss Bruce Mahalski some credit for his image they are using as their logo.

187 points by raleighm 7y ago

‘ No one on either side of the conflict , then or now, has a satisfactory theory of why Carrie Lam won’t form an independent inquiry into police violence, the demand that is the emotional core of the protests.’ Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police violence ? The Hong Kong situation is still quite baffling. I initially thought that the emotional motivation was independence. But it seems like that’s not the crux of the issue

pgeorgi 7y ago
> I initially thought that the emotional motivation was independence. More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of China as long as they can keep their self-governance. And that ties in to your question: > Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police violence ? Such an inquiry would emphasize HK's autonomy (and also paint government as potentially fallible, something the party doesn't like to see discussed). On the other hand: does China have anything to win with such an inquiry? I can't see anything (there are four more demands and giving in on this would likely increase support for demanding the rest), so for them it's all risk and no gain.
- jandrese 7y ago
  > More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of China as long as they can keep their self-governance. So they don't mind being a part of China so long as they aren't actually a part of China. I can't blame them either, the current system has worked out well for the island, and China's internal polices have not had quite as much success on the mainland. But Chinese officials were pretty clear from the start that they intended to integrated HK eventually and that the semi-detached existence was only temporary. They see this as inevitable and the HL population is just dragging their heels on something that has to happen in the end.
  - nailer 7y ago
    I think some folk in the west naively assumed that a wealthy populace on the mainland would get tired of corruption and rule by self appointed officials, and eventually liberalise. Harmony would be achieved this way. Instead China is implementing totalitarianism on a first world region and the Cantonese hate it.
    - bllguo 7y ago
      HK is largely cantonese but not all cantonese are from hong kong. let's use accurate language
samstave 7y ago
There is nothing baffling about this. CLam is clearly under the duress of the CCP - and not just for the simplistic reasons of her maintaining her own face/position/power/etc... She is the lynchpin of CCP control in HK. So, lets assume she caves to the protesters... (wont happen), she would wreak the ire of the CCP - and obv, she is as much of a leach oligarch as the rest - so she clearly cant choose the cup in front of her. Now, if she were to take the strong arm of the CCP against the protesters, she would wreak the havoc of the international sanction prospects of the world abroad. So she clearly cannot choose the cup in front of you... What she does know is that the global authoritarian regimes have spent the last few years building an immunity to Protester-Murder Requiring-Protester-Backlash-in-the-face-of-economic-and-geo-political-gains.
Danieru 7y ago
A commission would mean giving ground. It would mean China is no longer 100% protecting the thugs dressed in "police" uniforms. Thuggery is not a new thing, common to all crime families is a "protection" for the foot soldiers. If a foot soldier messes up the boss takes responsibility, admonishes the criminal, and the criminal is thankful for getting off without justice. We see this common behaviour in the American mafia, the Japanese Yakuza, and currupt police departments, and clearly China's Hong Kong occupiers.
bobthepanda 7y ago
At this point it’s to save face. Xi’s China and its media basically backed itself into a corner by painting the protests as instigated by foreign-funded terrorists. Accepting the demands would be seen as major backpedaling, and might - cause PRC citizens to also start demanding accountability - cause nationalistic protests about kowtowing to what was described as terrorists
- idlewords 7y ago
  A problem with that analysis is that they already caved on the chief demand (formal withdrawal of the bill), after saying all summer it wouldn't happen.
  - DonaldFisk 7y ago
    It's worth pointing out that the bill was introduced in order to extradite someone who was accused of murdering his girlfriend in Taiwan, with which Hong Kong didn't have an extradition treaty, but it wasn't sufficiently narrow in scope to do just that, which caused fear that it could have been used in future to extradite citizens to mainland China.
    - gwd 7y ago
      Yes. One of the side effects of being a liar is that nobody trusts you even when you're telling the truth; one of the side effects of having a corrupt legal system is that nobody trusts you, even with actual murderers. EDIT: It's worth pointing out that this is why Ecuador gave Assange asylum: it was clear that the UK and US legal systems were being politically corrupted. The political corruption of the legal system is just much more systematic in China.
  - mrob 7y ago
    It's not really withdrawn, it's just postponed for 28 years. "One country, two systems" expires in 2047, and the mainland government takes the long view.

Lucasoato 7y ago

Rip democracy

guramarx11 7y ago
yep, RISE In Peace ;)

irjustin 7y ago

Best of luck to the HK people. I called it home for better part of 2 years. I lived in Wan Chai on Hennessy rd near the computer center. Plenty of atrocities committed - people being shipped off in train cars reminiscent of pre-WWII photos that I have only learned about in school. Best wishes. [EDIT] I agree I should have said alleged atrocities. Sadly, hardly anyone left in HK is impartial but hopefully independent enough investigations are opened. To the trains - I was referring to this I saw a few weeks ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporting_prisoners_by_train_potentially/ https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporti... It is not a good look loading anyone in trains who is captive. True, we don't know where they're headed, could be fine - it's a bad look given the situation.

battleangle 7y ago
"people being shipped off in train cars reminiscent of pre-WWII photos that I have only learned about in school." There is absolutely no corroborated evidence whatsoever that this happened. Just like the alleged rapes. I'm not saying that these things did not happen, but absolutely no credible evidence on these claims up until now.
- MagnumOpus 7y ago
  > absolutely no corroborated evidence There is video and photo evidence from multiple sources on Twitter. There have been extensive reports of victims like British consulate worker Simon Cheng being abducted to the mainland and being tortured. Obviously there wont be any "corroboration" from the PRC state security agency or police...
  - battleangle 7y ago
    "There have been extensive reports of victims like British consulate worker Simon Cheng being abducted to the mainland and being tortured." Did you even see his interview with the BBC? Legally would not say anything about his hiring of prostitutes. No medical evience of the torture he claimed. The only hard evidence that was provided were CCTV tapes of him going into local massage joint. You would think that if he didn't obtain the services of sex workers he would come out and say it. Interesting that the British also let him go. I've seen those videos. You have to be kidding if that's sufficient evidence to say they are being shipped off to Chinese black camps. As for the alleged rapes - the evidence is even more lacking. The primary source used is a facebook account using a pseudonym who claims he's an emergency doctor who then says he "swears" that he's telling the truth. Everyone needs to be held to a basic standard of logic and scrutiny, not a double standard simply because one might agree with the ideals of a group. There are numerous ludicrous claims on the government and police side. But the same stands for protesters as well.

battleangle 7y ago

The Hong Kong situation is much more complicated than mainstream media outside Hong Kong would like the world to believe, but that goes without saying. The issue with the current HK government at the end of the day is that Carrie Lam is a second rate administrator and is wildly unqualified for handling the current situation in HK. Worse yet, she has one of the worst cabinets / teams ever assembled (you would need to be familiar with local HK politics to know this). In other words, HK couldn't have had a worse group to lead the city at this point in time. Having said that, Carrie is completely reliant on the police force at this stage. There is no way she agrees to an independent inquiry or any major moves against the police. At least not right now. I'd say that the independent inquriy may be something that can be compromised on at some point. But universal suffrage is out of the question, and demands 3 and 4 would never be accepted by the rest of Hong Kong nor would any reasonable person accept it given what has taken place since the original protests. In fact one of the key issues is that "the protest" isn't just one unified movement that has been moving forward since its inception.

adaml_623 7y ago
Interesting to me to summarise the talking points being pushed by this battleangle sock puppet account: * Issues in HK are internal to HK. Caused by HK population and HK administrators and HK police * There is no influence by the CCP on HK issues * The protest in HK is asking for unreasonable things and isn't united. * There is no evidence of people being deported out of HK or assaulted by government forces from outside HK. Also, as you would expect, personal attacks are being aimed at witnesses of events that contradict this story. And doubts are cast at video evidence. It's pretty clear that there is an attempt to paint a disconnect between HK China and Mainland China
- jacobush 7y ago
  I don't know, the propaganda accounts are usually much more blunt. This one has nuanced words. Painting Carrie Lam as relying on the police and force etc.
- battleangle 7y ago
  As usual, rather than offer actual counterpoints, you resort to ad hominem attacks and complete misrepresentation of what I stated. - nowhere did I state issues in HK are internal to HK only. There's obvious influence by interested parties outside of HK as well. - HK is under the CCP. Of course there's influence. I never stated this either. I stated that the influence is much less than what media would like you to belive. - I specifically stated that 2 of the demands are unreasonable, and a third will never be tolerated by the CCP. The protest movement certainly isn't a united cause for Hong Kong as a whole. That's what I stated. Even in the recent local elections the pro-protest candidates garnered on average less than 60% of the votes despite record turn out on their side. - There indeed is no hard and credible evidence that people are being deported out of HK into China. That's what I stated. I did not state that none have been assaulted by government forces. " personal attacks are being aimed at witnesses of events that contradict this story" umm...what personal attacks? Do you even know that the evidence of an emergency doctor saying the rapes occurred is by a "Dr. Ray" on Facebook? He also wrote in Chinese that his evidence is that "if he is lying, may the people and heavens judge him". Unfortunately most people buying into the claim don't read Chinese. Now that I've pointed out your completely unbased claims and obvious disingenuity and lack of integrity, perhaps you want to provide evidence of claims to the contrary rather than your illogical rabble. *yes I'm a brand new account. I usually only read posts here, but I'm from HK and it's an issue close to heart. I'm sick of the misrepresentation of what's actually happening being reinforced by people who have very little knowledge of Hong Kong if they have even ever visited or lived there at all.

ng12 7y ago

I'm not sure I buy the argument that Lam is just a bumbling politician failing to deal with a crisis when she's backed by the most powerful authoritarian regime in the world.

battleangle 7y ago
Yeah it's hard to believe, but that's part of the issue. She's never been a politician, and was a second rate administrator / civil servant at best before she was chosen for the position. I think that we often overestimate the abilities of leaders everywhere in the world... In addition, China is happy to let Carrie and HK stumble...to a certain extent of course. But they truly have been very hands off on the HK protests. I think it's worth noting that China is perfectly fine with HK getting burned by itself just as long certain lines aren't crossed (independence, violence against PLA, etc.). They weren't worried about losing HK when it was under British colonial rule, they certainly aren't worried now. Furthermore, things really aren't that bad considering how the media has been reporting HK. It's still an extremely well-to-do city and life goes on in most parts.
- bobthepanda 7y ago
  To add onto it, she was basically picked because the other potential candidate was a little too good at being a politician, and campaigned for the position without Beijing’s blessing.
  - idlewords 7y ago
    You can't just mention him in passing and not say that he was widely known as Mr. Pringles, for his majestic moustache!
    - yowlingcat 7y ago
      Were I to achieve not just being a successful politician, but one known as Mr. Pringles. What a life.
7y ago

mamborambo 7y ago

The hopeless situation of Carrie Lam fronting the CCP and having to execute its policy, is what drove Hong Kong into the people's revolution of 2019. Under the CCP, local administrators do not need ideas, just obedience. Carrie Lam's misfortune was to be sandwiched between the increasing paranoia of Xi Jin Ping, and the increasing rebelliousness of HKers, and she has no strategy to resolve the two forces. Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side. She is after all a HK citizen and its representative even without true election. Seven million rebels can parallelize a city, but pissing off a few thousand bureaucrats in the politburo simply leads to tantrums and rhetorics. If she had done that, HK's economy would not have stalled, HKers would rally behind her, and the whole Two System debate could be channelled into a consultation process that can remain civil and reasonable. HKers will not forgive her for her missteps and police brutality that led to thousands of arrested and hundreds of maimed/injured/raped/dead. That will always be her legacy. But HKers can thank her incompetence for triggering the nationalistic feeling of a Hongkonger. The city of immigrants and world refugees has never been so clearly in sync, and the common enemy so in focus.

navaati 7y ago
> Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side. Could she ? Wouldn’t she have been "disappeared" as well as her family ? Not trying to excuse anything of course, she chose her side a long time ago, but still…
- jacobush 7y ago
  I also believe this. She could only have said something somewhat safely from exile.
  - treden 7y ago
    An important aspect of leadership is the courage to do the right thing, even at risk to one's own personal comfort and safety. In light of facts, you could make the argument that either she doesn't believe in the importance of sovereignty for her fellow citizens, or she doesn't have the courage to speak up for it.

coatHanger-gov 7y ago

Gee, how do we fix Hong Kong? Oh, how will we ever fix Hong Kong? It's like hey, maybe if it didn't represent a choice between mandatory abortions and sterilization, or not, this wouldn't be such a big deal. But you put that on the table, and now people consider laying their life on the line, no big deal. If push comes to shove, a forced abortion or mandatory sterilization will put anyone in the mood for some unceremonious destruction, burn victims and brain damage, no contest. No negotiations. Sane people don't knowingly acquiesce to those kinds of laws. What could any government possibly offer, and realistically deliver, in exchange for the general freedom to reproduce? Probably only one thing: the barrel of a gun.

spyckie2 7y ago

As an ABC who currently lives in HK but has no ties to Asia (born and raised in the US) and has no personal interest in what's happening in HK, what I observe is a global increase in pace of change affecting this generation across the entire world, with drastically different results per region / body of people based on their current economic, cultural, and political positions. I think earthquakes are a good illustration of what's happening. Energy that builds up, friction developed between tectonic plates that gets released, either violently or smoothly, with varying levels of impact depending on the geological conditions surrounding it. In the US, I mostly agree with the high level view that Andrew Yang ascribes (which is actually just the technocrat doom and gloom point of view) - economic changes that created waves of discontent, with an unconscious realization that problems have become too big for individuals alone to deal with, demanding escalation to the government level to solve, bringing in a feeling that we need something radically different (Trump) to handle the observed radical differences that the 21st century world is bringing in. In Asia, the socio-economic changes that are happening are the same as the US, except instead of having the strongest economy in the world with a wealth of resources, education, a progressive history and lots of national-level experience in dealing with shocking changes, you have... exactly what you see in HK. Asian culture, stemming from confucian values, encourage and promote people to power who like to keep things the same way and discourage adaptation (harmony in society is defined as minimizing conflict which usually means not rocking the boat). While the US (at least compared to other countries) has a system in place that can handle mistakes, has a rich history of how to handle change and how to properly push for progressive value shifts, the whole of Asia lacks all of that experience as a culture. What you have is a bunch of the older generation who are used to the old way of doing things, and see the world more similar to the godfather era rather than modern society. The rest of society has a value to not rock the boat and to care for outward harmony over bring up legitimate issues. This yields an environment where people are just not "trained for change". The actions that the current Asian political powers are taking look primitive to anyone who has lived in modern society and has observed how progressive shifts actually take place (and many have taken place over the last 5-10 years). It will be very interesting to see how Asia adapts because modern society isn't going anywhere, it's actually speeding up and clashing more and more with how the older generation wants things to be.

7y ago

kenneth 7y ago

(For context — am an expat living in HK.) Living in HK the last few months has been frustrating for me, primarily because of growing spread of misinformation and the untrustworthy reporting on the situation. It's getting hard to know what information to believe, and that's even for myself living here, who has seen all of it from my own eyes. How could you expect anyone reading the news or social media from a foreign country to be reacting to valid information? The western media is making it sound like Hong Kong is Syria. Protester private channels makes wild unfounded claims about mass-scale executions and rapes. Chinese media makes it sound like HK is under siege by terrorists. SCMP's reporting is increasingly suspiciously lacking and pro-establishment. The government is entirely untrustworthy and straight up lying about everything and anything. There are a few people doing good work (e.g. OSINT HK), but it's not enough to rise about the noise drowning it all out. Of course the real situation is more nuanced. It's also all entirely pointless, with no hope for de-escalation or positive resolution. That said, it's also not nearly as dramatic and disrupting to daily life as you'd expect. Living in HK is still far safer than in downtown San Francisco (or anywhere in the US for that matter). For those wishing to stay out of it, avoiding protests is fairly easy (I mean — unless you live in Mong Kong or Prince Edward). The handful of times I ended up right in the middle of it, nobody really cared to bother any bystanders. The government seems to be on a mission to do anything in its power to make things worse, from repeatedly escalating the situation through violence, inflammatory policy, and generally being a party-pooper and cancelling all ordinary celebrations (e.g. Halloween). Today, walking down the street in Sai Ying Pun, I observed workers replacing the wooden paneling they've been installing in front of the mainland Chinese banks to protect them from the thrashings with welded metal paneling. It was somewhat of a sign that they're getting ready for this to continue in the long term.

idlewords 7y ago
On the question of how to get reliable reporting from Hong Kong, the answer is Twitter! I've been keeping a list of great local reporters tweeting in English from on the scene. Many of them also write for established news outlets, but the tweets are more timely and very often more nuanced: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/lists/hong-kong https://twitter.com/Pinboard/lists/hong-kong
7y ago

metabork 7y ago

Are there any good reasons to support the take that the extradition law was Lam's own initiative and not pushed for by China ?

idlewords 7y ago
James Palmer writing in August in Foreign Policy gives what is the consensus view among journalists in Hong Kong: "Analysts generally believe that the bill was the initiative of Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, not a measure suggested or strongly pushed from Beijing. Lam may have been aiming to please the Chinese authorities and strengthen her position, or it may have been an attempt to put a formal procedure in place in order to circumvent the Chinese authorities from simply kidnapping Hong Kongers." https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-erupting-protests-china-extradition/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-erupti...
- metabork 7y ago
  Thanks, my impression was that Beijing tried to quickly capitalize on an opportunity that presented itself with the Taiwan murder - if this is really Lam's own doing then the level of either stupidity or self-dealing is staggering.

Merrill 7y ago

The CCP is probably content to let the HK situation continue to fester. The economic role of HK relative to the PRC will continue to wane. HK will continue to be portrayed as an object lesson in the dysfunction of democracy. The CCP can assert control whenever it needs to by simply turning off the water and electrical supply.

anm89 7y ago

It's really sad to say but a vicious fight, even with no endgame seems to be the only sensible move for the Hong Kong people at this point. At least, if they get pummeled, in the end, it will be extremely clear that whatever happened was not consensual and will set them up to fight another round down the line.

iandinwoodie 7y ago

Off topic, but the site creator should really toss Bruce Mahalski some credit for his image they are using as their logo.