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And once that happens, it is going to turn the auto industry upside down. Some ice companies like VW realize this and are rushing like crazy to be ready when it

And once that happens, it is going to turn the auto industry upside down. Some ice companies like VW realize this and are rushing like crazy to be ready when it happens. The companies that aren't doing this today are likely going to go bankrupt.

dangrossman 7y ago
I don't think so. Things just don't move that fast in the auto industry. Each car generation lasts 4-8 years. The average age of cars on the road right now is 12 years old. It's taken 10 years to get to 2% EV market share in new vehicle sales even with enormous subsidies. At $100/kWh, a car with 300 miles of range will still have a $7500+ battery, which is too much for sub-$20K cars to still be sub-$20K cars: unless every single auto maker abandons the low-end of the market, someone's going to still be making gas cars for those buyers. There won't be an electric car charger on every street and every parking spot at every apartment building for decades at best, which means people without their own garage to charge in will not be clamoring to switch to much less convenient (for them) electric cars. People will still be buying and driving gas cars and non-plugin hybrids for a very long time, no matter how fast battery prices fall.
- gok 7y ago
  The sub-$20k new car segment is tiny and shrinking.
- woodandsteel 7y ago
  I strongly disagree. One problem with your sub-20k market argument is that battery prices are going to keep falling, so in a few more years ev sticker prices are going to be equivalent. Another is that most sub-$20k manufacturers make a large part of their income from more expensive cars, and so for that reason will be in grave danger of bankruptcy. As for chargers, the number is expanding rapidly, for a variety of reasons. That means every year that goes buy there are more people who are in a position to buy an ev. Yes, ice's will keep selling, but the numbers will be going down which means that the economies of scale that present manufacturers depend for profits will no longer be there. They will also be stuck with fixed expenses. That means to make a profit they will have to raise prices, which will just drive sales down faster. Also resale prices will plummet, which will give drivers more of a motivation to buy an ev. Also governments concerned with climate change, which is basically every large developed country besides Russia and the present US federal administration, will be pushing ev's and punishing ice's (like is already going on in China). As for your point the auto industry moves slowly, that is why many companies will go bankrupt.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- fyfy18 7y ago
  > There won't be an electric car charger on every street and every parking spot at every apartment building for decades at best You don't need them at every parking space, you just need enough density so owners can charge regularly. Maybe in Nimbyism America that's going to take a while (I recently took a trip to San Francisco and didn't even see one electric car charger), but elsewhere it's already possible. In my Eastern European country most supermarkets and shopping malls have electric car chargers, and in the city center there is nearly one fast charger per square km. You can already own an EV here, if you live in an apartment but have to park it on the street. The average American drives 16 miles each way to work, so that's 160 miles a week comuting. If they had a Model 3, even charging once a week would be more than enough.
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  Once self driving hits, the cost of shared cars per mile will drop below the cost of gas, so the entire bottom of the market (that <$20k segment) will just disappear.

dangrossman 7y ago

I don't think so. Things just don't move that fast in the auto industry. Each car generation lasts 4-8 years. The average age of cars on the road right now is 12 years old. It's taken 10 years to get to 2% EV market share in new vehicle sales even with enormous subsidies. At $100/kWh, a car with 300 miles of range will still have a $7500+ battery, which is too much for sub-$20K cars to still be sub-$20K cars: unless every single auto maker abandons the low-end of the market, someone's going to still be making gas cars for those buyers. There won't be an electric car charger on every street and every parking spot at every apartment building for decades at best, which means people without their own garage to charge in will not be clamoring to switch to much less convenient (for them) electric cars. People will still be buying and driving gas cars and non-plugin hybrids for a very long time, no matter how fast battery prices fall.

gok 7y ago
The sub-$20k new car segment is tiny and shrinking.
woodandsteel 7y ago
I strongly disagree. One problem with your sub-20k market argument is that battery prices are going to keep falling, so in a few more years ev sticker prices are going to be equivalent. Another is that most sub-$20k manufacturers make a large part of their income from more expensive cars, and so for that reason will be in grave danger of bankruptcy. As for chargers, the number is expanding rapidly, for a variety of reasons. That means every year that goes buy there are more people who are in a position to buy an ev. Yes, ice's will keep selling, but the numbers will be going down which means that the economies of scale that present manufacturers depend for profits will no longer be there. They will also be stuck with fixed expenses. That means to make a profit they will have to raise prices, which will just drive sales down faster. Also resale prices will plummet, which will give drivers more of a motivation to buy an ev. Also governments concerned with climate change, which is basically every large developed country besides Russia and the present US federal administration, will be pushing ev's and punishing ice's (like is already going on in China). As for your point the auto industry moves slowly, that is why many companies will go bankrupt.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
fyfy18 7y ago
> There won't be an electric car charger on every street and every parking spot at every apartment building for decades at best You don't need them at every parking space, you just need enough density so owners can charge regularly. Maybe in Nimbyism America that's going to take a while (I recently took a trip to San Francisco and didn't even see one electric car charger), but elsewhere it's already possible. In my Eastern European country most supermarkets and shopping malls have electric car chargers, and in the city center there is nearly one fast charger per square km. You can already own an EV here, if you live in an apartment but have to park it on the street. The average American drives 16 miles each way to work, so that's 160 miles a week comuting. If they had a Model 3, even charging once a week would be more than enough.
erikpukinskis 7y ago
Once self driving hits, the cost of shared cars per mile will drop below the cost of gas, so the entire bottom of the market (that <$20k segment) will just disappear.