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This makes me wonder how falling battery prices will affect the cost of used electric vehicles. On one hand, the replacement battery costs will go down, and in

This makes me wonder how falling battery prices will affect the cost of used electric vehicles. On one hand, the replacement battery costs will go down, and in turn should make for better resale value (since the replacement cost of a wearable part is factored into the resale value.) But on the other hand, auto companies (especially Tesla) have been passing that savings down to the customer, leading to cheaper brand new prices of vehicles. While it may appear on the surface that Tesla has not reduced their prices all that much, keep in mind that the only current offering for the Model S is the 100KWh battery. The Model 3 prices have been incrementally decreasing, while simultaneously standardizing features like autopilot, which used to be a $2K upgrade.

tway009 7y ago
Another problem is the fast pace of innovation. Tesla aside, most electric vehicles will be outdated in 3-5 years (I say that as an e-Golf owner/lessee) because the next generation of vehicles will be much better. I think we're in the iPhone 3G phase and have a couple iterations/generations of fast evolution ahead until the market stabilizes.
- pretendscholar 7y ago
  That doesn't really make sense. It really is a mostly mature product as the components like doors, windows, steering are mostly mature. Cars have been produced for a long time and this is just another marginal improvement on the same concept. Its a car and it gets you to your destination relatively comfortably. Not that much different than other cars.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  This is good though. The faster the values of EVs decline, while still having hundreds of thousands of miles of service life ahead of them, the faster they're affordable on the used car market (choking out ICE vehicles) to those of less means.
- mikestew 7y ago
  We own one of the first Nissan Leafs off the line. When we're done with it, I will happily give it to someone (because resale on these is already next to nothing) if it replaces their ICE car. And an old electric is something that I theorize would be perfect for the less wealthy. An old beater ICE has to be more trouble and expense than on old EV with a usable battery. Even if it only goes 40 miles in its old age, at least it will do those 40 miles reliably.
  - blacksmith_tb 7y ago
    Used EVs will be ideal cars for teens learning to drive - they don't need huge range, and they don't need much maintaining.
    - vkou 7y ago
      The ideal car for a teen learning to drive is the car that their family already owns.
      - adrianmonk 7y ago
        Depends how you look at it. You could make an argument that the ideal is a brand new car with the best crash test scores of anything on the market and state-of-the-art safety features. Car crashes are the leading cause of death for teenagers: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#leadingcauses https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#leadin...
        m463 7y ago
        My friend told me the chances of a teenage driver having an accident is close to 100%. Put them in a safe car.
        vkou 7y ago
        If you let them out unattended with their idiot friends, sure. But that's not exactly 'teaching them how to drive'. If you are supervising them as they learn to drive, I strongly doubt it.
- tlapinsk 7y ago
  I've heard this echoed by Matt Farah on his One Take review of the Model 3 Performance. He recommended leasing the car as it doesn't seem like a "collectors" item. Essentially saying it was built to be used for a few years, and then recycled. Much like old iPhones are these days. Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrGgIDqgUj4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrGgIDqgUj4 I'm not sure how much I agree as the Tesla resale market is very strong (even for old Model S cars). But, definitely curious to see how it shakes out. We are very much at the tip of the ice berg in terms of EV sales. The car market will look insanely different in 10 years. As a consumer, I'm stoked to see how it plays out.
jillesvangurp 7y ago
Short term demand for EVs will grow faster than old ones can hit the second hand market. They are already super scarce, which means that EVs have awesome second hand market value until the market saturates, which will take decades.

tway009 7y ago

Another problem is the fast pace of innovation. Tesla aside, most electric vehicles will be outdated in 3-5 years (I say that as an e-Golf owner/lessee) because the next generation of vehicles will be much better. I think we're in the iPhone 3G phase and have a couple iterations/generations of fast evolution ahead until the market stabilizes.

pretendscholar 7y ago
That doesn't really make sense. It really is a mostly mature product as the components like doors, windows, steering are mostly mature. Cars have been produced for a long time and this is just another marginal improvement on the same concept. Its a car and it gets you to your destination relatively comfortably. Not that much different than other cars.
toomuchtodo 7y ago
This is good though. The faster the values of EVs decline, while still having hundreds of thousands of miles of service life ahead of them, the faster they're affordable on the used car market (choking out ICE vehicles) to those of less means.
mikestew 7y ago
We own one of the first Nissan Leafs off the line. When we're done with it, I will happily give it to someone (because resale on these is already next to nothing) if it replaces their ICE car. And an old electric is something that I theorize would be perfect for the less wealthy. An old beater ICE has to be more trouble and expense than on old EV with a usable battery. Even if it only goes 40 miles in its old age, at least it will do those 40 miles reliably.
- blacksmith_tb 7y ago
  Used EVs will be ideal cars for teens learning to drive - they don't need huge range, and they don't need much maintaining.
  - vkou 7y ago
    The ideal car for a teen learning to drive is the car that their family already owns.
    - adrianmonk 7y ago
      Depends how you look at it. You could make an argument that the ideal is a brand new car with the best crash test scores of anything on the market and state-of-the-art safety features. Car crashes are the leading cause of death for teenagers: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#leadingcauses https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm#leadin...
      - m463 7y ago
        My friend told me the chances of a teenage driver having an accident is close to 100%. Put them in a safe car.
        vkou 7y ago
        If you let them out unattended with their idiot friends, sure. But that's not exactly 'teaching them how to drive'. If you are supervising them as they learn to drive, I strongly doubt it.
tlapinsk 7y ago
I've heard this echoed by Matt Farah on his One Take review of the Model 3 Performance. He recommended leasing the car as it doesn't seem like a "collectors" item. Essentially saying it was built to be used for a few years, and then recycled. Much like old iPhones are these days. Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrGgIDqgUj4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrGgIDqgUj4 I'm not sure how much I agree as the Tesla resale market is very strong (even for old Model S cars). But, definitely curious to see how it shakes out. We are very much at the tip of the ice berg in terms of EV sales. The car market will look insanely different in 10 years. As a consumer, I'm stoked to see how it plays out.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

Short term demand for EVs will grow faster than old ones can hit the second hand market. They are already super scarce, which means that EVs have awesome second hand market value until the market saturates, which will take decades.