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> Isn’t figuring out whether warning was happening pretty straightforward? Not exactly. There are two ways that it can be ambiguous: 1. We don't measure the e
by moultano 7y ago
> Isn’t figuring out whether warning was happening pretty straightforward?
Not exactly. There are two ways that it can be ambiguous:
1. We don't measure the entire earth to measure its temperature, and combining the sensor readings from various sources to get a calibrated total energy content can be difficult.
2. It is difficult to take a time series, and with a short history, decide whether something is a significant deviation from the trend or just random variation. Humans instinctively underestimate how often a random sequence of coin flips will have consecutive strings of heads of a given length, and the same tendency causes us to see a "pause" as a deviation from the trend, when it's really just random variation causing a bunch of consecutive heads.