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While I agree that alarmists who think the world is ending in 10-20 years are wildly off-base, Shellenberger is badly understating things at times. He asked an
by GVIrish 7y ago
While I agree that alarmists who think the world is ending in 10-20 years are wildly off-base, Shellenberger is badly understating things at times.
He asked an IPCC scientist about what was unmanageable about a 3 ft+ sea level rise, and after said scientist explained the numerous serious scenarios his glib conclusion was:
"In other words, the problems from sea level rise that Oppenheimer is calling “unmanageable” are situations like the ones that already occur, such as in the days following Hurricane Katrina, where societies become temporarily difficult to manage. (Katrina killed over 1,800)."
This is a really bad hot take. Number one, Hurricane Katrina was a one-time weather event. Sea level rise means you're always going to be dealing with trying to hold back the sea. In parts of the world that are already struggling with poverty, how are they gonna come up with the billions of dollars to engineer, build, and maintain sea walls and dykes?
And that's not even getting into the fact that if you're starting out with much higher sea level, storm surge is gonna cause that much more damage. On top of that, significantly warmer seas are going to cause much stronger storms.
People displaced by said consequences of climate change are going destabilize governments and/or cause conflicts. There are many hot spots in the world where long standing tensions could burst into open conflict if a climate-related disaster or crisis hits.