4 ms·
High-speed train would displace not just flights, but also buses, private cars and the existing (admittedly pathetic) rail service, plus it would also induce ne
by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
High-speed train would displace not just flights, but also buses, private cars and the existing (admittedly pathetic) rail service, plus it would also induce new demand since it would make currently awkward trips (eg. flying from Seattle to Vancouver for a single meeting and flying back) much more feasible.
Studies of other new HSRs over similar distances indicate quite consistently that they take about equal shares (~30%) from planes and buses/cars, with the remaining ~40% passengers from replaced rail service and induced demand.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222774085_High-speed_rail_in_Taiwan_New_experience_and_issues_for_future_development https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222774085_High-spee...
- supernova87a 7y agoThe cost / time savings isn't what's the important factor in determining whether the service is sustainable, once you are in the competitive territory. It's how many people will take the service. Even if you assume that you'll double the ridership from my numbers above, that doesn't fill a train reliably. SEA-YVR is even worse. There are 1350 passengers per day one way air between those cities. Even if you think that there's hidden demand traveling by car that you could convert, the volume just isn't there.
- Nasrudith 7y agoInteresting I wonder about the displacement and induced demand in other scenarios like say adding another highway lane when there already is a high speed railway.