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My fear is these systems promise great results for execs who build models to answer new questions by themselves. And that's just irresponsible. I do forecasti
by vharuck 7y ago
My fear is these systems promise great results for execs who build models to answer new questions by themselves. And that's just irresponsible.
I do forecasting in my job, and use Hyndman's `forecast` R package. I totally rely on it's automated model creation.
That said, I only have the moderate confidence in its results because I took the time to research forecasting and started with an understanding of how to use data to answer questions. (To be clear, any lack of confidence in the results is from a fear I'm doing it wrong).
Non-data people are terrible at choosing the right data to answer the question. Sure, automating the model terms or even the choice of model is probably done better by machine, with human tweaking only needed for rare cases. But domain experts will often choose totally wrong numbers for models to predict.
If the target's obvious (e.g., quarterly revenue they already have a method for calculating), then letting execs do it themselves is probably fine. But I'd never trust them to take an abstract question, choose an appropriate measure to answer it, and then find good data without consulting a skilled analyst.