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According to: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/how-good-have-climate-models-been-at-truly-predicting-the-future/ http://www.realclimate.org
by jml7c5 7y ago
According to: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/how-good-have-climate-models-been-at-truly-predicting-the-future/ http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/how-go...
>We gathered all the climate models published between 1970 and the mid-2000s that gave projections of both future warming and future concentrations of CO2 and other climate forcings – from Manabe (1970) and Mitchell (1970) through to CMIP3 in IPCC 2007.
If you're a cynic or suspicious: "projections of future warming" means they intentionally excluded studies that projected cooling.
Otherwise: it could have been written as "projections of future temperature", but they came across no studies that projected cooling.
This really makes me wish for open access journals, as most of the questions in this thread could be answered if it was possible for anyone to look at the paper.
- henrifdrake 7y agoWe didn't find any quantitative and peer-reviewed projections of cooling, or we would have included them. If you know of any, please let me know and I'll publish an update to the paper.
- pragmar 7y agoI don't know if it helps, but these are the papers the media cooling stories came from. They are peer reviewed and quantitative, but perhaps not exactly what you need (that is to say, not sufficiently predictive). Rasool and Schneider 1971 [1] https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4db2/1045b17ebcdd6a8c6adeb1f42eb5c2c39270.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4db2/1045b17ebcdd6a8c6adeb1... Earl Barrett 1971 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0038092X71900156 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/003809... Hamilton and Seliga 1972 https://www.igsoc.org/journal/14/72/igs_journal_vol14_issue072_pg433-444.pdf https://www.igsoc.org/journal/14/72/igs_journal_vol14_issue0... Chylek and Coakley 1974 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4120/75 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4120/75 Bryson and Dittberner 1976 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281976%29033%3C2094%3AANEMOH%3E2.0.CO%3B2 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%28197... Sean Twomey 1977 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281977%29034%3C1149%3ATIOPOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%28197... [1] edit: Schneider later retracted findings
- henrifdrake 7y agoP.S. Our coauthor at NASA was able to host the paper on their official site for anyone to read. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha08910q.html https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha08910q.html I share your wish for open access journals.