3 ms·
It does seem like survivorship bias could be a factor. The article talks about how some of the old models were off until they "corrected" them. All right, and d
by starpilot 7y ago
It does seem like survivorship bias could be a factor. The article talks about how some of the old models were off until they "corrected" them. All right, and did they apply the same scrutiny to the apparently "correct" ones? "All of the models predicted this (except for the ones that didn't.)
- henrifdrake 7y agoThe correction is based on physics is really quite straightforward...
- refurb 7y agoIf it's so straightforward, why wasn't it accounted for in the first place? Honest question.
- chrisbrandow 7y agoThe only correction I see referenced was the amount of CO2 produced by people after the papers were written. Annual CO2 emissions from human industry is an input to the model, rather than the model itself, but it does affect the result and can only be estimated when the models were published. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Unless I overlooked other changes.