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The author has a major fundamental misconception as to how probability works. If I say "the probability that proposition X is true is 0.5", that means that base
by gweinberg 7y ago
The author has a major fundamental misconception as to how probability works. If I say "the probability that proposition X is true is 0.5", that means that based on the information available to me right now it's equally likely likely to be true as false. That's not even remotely similar to saying I would offer an even money bet.
- baron_harkonnen 7y agoIgnoring the fact that “the author” is one of the most respected statistians in the world today... there is no debate on how to translate probabilities into odds: odds(x) = p(x)/(1-p(x)) Thats the definition of “odds”. so in this case it is quite clear that the odds for X is 1, implying and even money bet.