3 ms·

Or alternatively, the Viking picked up a stone, said it was magical, that it told him the sun was "that a-way" and if he was wrong, they died, never to be heard

by huxley 16y ago

Or alternatively, the Viking picked up a stone, said it was magical, that it told him the sun was "that a-way" and if he was wrong, they died, never to be heard of again. If he was right, they lived and he got a pretty sweet saga out of the deal.

thomas11 16y ago
The Vikings navigated very well, for the time, consistently over a long period.
sophacles 16y ago
Ah yes, because people in the past were just plain stupid, we as a species didn't gain the ability to intentionally take advantage of our surroundings or question those having dubious advice until 325 years ago, when Newton presented the Royal Society with his Pricipia Mathematica volume 1, thus bestowing critical thought on humanity. All evidence to the contrary is simply coincidental. For instance, the cathedrals and churches contemporary to the vikings: They were not planned even a little. They are simply the result of some guy saying "lets build a cathedral" and piling stones until one of the piles resulted in a cathedral that didn't fall over. Every last one is like this. And swords and armor? Those guys just put funny rocks in the fire sometimes, and hit them for the heck of it, and occasionally when things cooled off, there would be a sword there!
- dkarl 16y ago
  In the past? Launching ventures on intuition is common to this day. (Otherwise nobody would start a business: no amount of effort will turn it into an exact science.) In the past, people were just more apt to ascribe intuition to magic or divine guidance. It wasn't that long ago in the United States that a farmer could hire a diviner to tell him where to dig a well, using a divining rod to find underground water. People who succeed through luck are more often than not credited with insight. They believe in their own skill and have no problem finding people who admire them, trust them, and follow them. If you can believe what you read, it happens on Wall Street all the time.
  - sophacles 16y ago
    So, because some people are stupid and follow slightly less stupid people for idiotic plans, the entire history of Norse navigation via Sunstones must be this! Due to the fact that some people had claimed the Sunstone magic worked, and they had the evidence of being alive, all Vikings everywhere completely ignored the large number of ships out navigating with sunstones that dissapeared. That must be it, as large numbers of Wall street investors are still hawking derivatives even tho they are shown to be a bad deal now. It is highly likely that you are guilty of the exact same sort of confirmation bias you are deriding with your diviner example. See you are going back and cherry picking a few (not at all commonplace after better alternatives existed) choice ideas, calling them good evidence, and ignoring the whole confirmation bias issue. Edit: also intuition is also very frequently the result of lots of observation and experience on the intuiter's part. This may not be formally laid out, yet is still pretty valid. Do intuition launched ventures have a track record that is at all different (in a statistically meaningful way) than other ventures? If not, it is a valid methodology for venture creation.
    - dkarl 16y ago
      So, because some people are stupid and follow slightly less stupid people for idiotic plans, the entire history of Norse navigation via Sunstones must be this! Your comment seemed to say that it was implausible that success in a risky enterprise might have been entirely due to luck yet attributed by many observers to skill. All I pointed out was that it isn't just plausible, it happens all the time.
      - sophacles 16y ago
        In the short term yes, this happens. In the long term? You all seem to not realize that several centuries of navigation successes attributed to luck stretches the credibility a bit. It's not like this was one case of luck, it was a long running thing. All the luck cases in your examples rarely last longer than years, let alone centuries. Doubly so considering the whole society built itself on the spoils of the raiders who went out on trips. Such things are not possible on just luck, there has to be an amount of repeatability there. Strongly suggested by the fact that viking raiders were so successful at returning that the ideas, treasures and people (slaves and whatnot) that they brought back fundamentally changed their society.
- huxley 16y ago
  Nice. I didn't say our predecessors were stupid or incapable of remarkable things. I said that it was likely that the saga was just a story and that the researchers were jumping to conclusions. The article is extrapolating that the Vikings used polarizing crystals to navigate without providing archaeological evidence that the Vikings used such crystals. Is it possible? Maybe. Is it interesting speculation? Yeah. Does the fact that there were other contemporaneously advanced technologies like cathedrals and metal forging mean that Vikings independently discovered light polarization? No, no matter how much you would like it. Maybe you need to chill a bit.
  - sophacles 16y ago
    Hahaha -- The actual article is about how researchers were investigating if the navigation technique was possible. They concluded that it is a reasonable possiblility, based on experimental evidence. Their conclusion was: if they had these crystals they could utilize them. Further they mention that there were lots of other techniques that could be used equally well. That is not jumping to unnecessary conclusions. Instead of me chilling out, you should consider repeating the third grade and working on your basic reading comprehension skills.

by huxley 16y ago

thomas11 16y ago

The Vikings navigated very well, for the time, consistently over a long period.

sophacles 16y ago

Ah yes, because people in the past were just plain stupid, we as a species didn't gain the ability to intentionally take advantage of our surroundings or question those having dubious advice until 325 years ago, when Newton presented the Royal Society with his Pricipia Mathematica volume 1, thus bestowing critical thought on humanity. All evidence to the contrary is simply coincidental. For instance, the cathedrals and churches contemporary to the vikings: They were not planned even a little. They are simply the result of some guy saying "lets build a cathedral" and piling stones until one of the piles resulted in a cathedral that didn't fall over. Every last one is like this. And swords and armor? Those guys just put funny rocks in the fire sometimes, and hit them for the heck of it, and occasionally when things cooled off, there would be a sword there!

dkarl 16y ago
In the past? Launching ventures on intuition is common to this day. (Otherwise nobody would start a business: no amount of effort will turn it into an exact science.) In the past, people were just more apt to ascribe intuition to magic or divine guidance. It wasn't that long ago in the United States that a farmer could hire a diviner to tell him where to dig a well, using a divining rod to find underground water. People who succeed through luck are more often than not credited with insight. They believe in their own skill and have no problem finding people who admire them, trust them, and follow them. If you can believe what you read, it happens on Wall Street all the time.
- sophacles 16y ago
  So, because some people are stupid and follow slightly less stupid people for idiotic plans, the entire history of Norse navigation via Sunstones must be this! Due to the fact that some people had claimed the Sunstone magic worked, and they had the evidence of being alive, all Vikings everywhere completely ignored the large number of ships out navigating with sunstones that dissapeared. That must be it, as large numbers of Wall street investors are still hawking derivatives even tho they are shown to be a bad deal now. It is highly likely that you are guilty of the exact same sort of confirmation bias you are deriding with your diviner example. See you are going back and cherry picking a few (not at all commonplace after better alternatives existed) choice ideas, calling them good evidence, and ignoring the whole confirmation bias issue. Edit: also intuition is also very frequently the result of lots of observation and experience on the intuiter's part. This may not be formally laid out, yet is still pretty valid. Do intuition launched ventures have a track record that is at all different (in a statistically meaningful way) than other ventures? If not, it is a valid methodology for venture creation.
  - dkarl 16y ago
    So, because some people are stupid and follow slightly less stupid people for idiotic plans, the entire history of Norse navigation via Sunstones must be this! Your comment seemed to say that it was implausible that success in a risky enterprise might have been entirely due to luck yet attributed by many observers to skill. All I pointed out was that it isn't just plausible, it happens all the time.
    - sophacles 16y ago
      In the short term yes, this happens. In the long term? You all seem to not realize that several centuries of navigation successes attributed to luck stretches the credibility a bit. It's not like this was one case of luck, it was a long running thing. All the luck cases in your examples rarely last longer than years, let alone centuries. Doubly so considering the whole society built itself on the spoils of the raiders who went out on trips. Such things are not possible on just luck, there has to be an amount of repeatability there. Strongly suggested by the fact that viking raiders were so successful at returning that the ideas, treasures and people (slaves and whatnot) that they brought back fundamentally changed their society.
huxley 16y ago
Nice. I didn't say our predecessors were stupid or incapable of remarkable things. I said that it was likely that the saga was just a story and that the researchers were jumping to conclusions. The article is extrapolating that the Vikings used polarizing crystals to navigate without providing archaeological evidence that the Vikings used such crystals. Is it possible? Maybe. Is it interesting speculation? Yeah. Does the fact that there were other contemporaneously advanced technologies like cathedrals and metal forging mean that Vikings independently discovered light polarization? No, no matter how much you would like it. Maybe you need to chill a bit.
- sophacles 16y ago
  Hahaha -- The actual article is about how researchers were investigating if the navigation technique was possible. They concluded that it is a reasonable possiblility, based on experimental evidence. Their conclusion was: if they had these crystals they could utilize them. Further they mention that there were lots of other techniques that could be used equally well. That is not jumping to unnecessary conclusions. Instead of me chilling out, you should consider repeating the third grade and working on your basic reading comprehension skills.