Your math is right but the numbers you based it on were not. (70*365) / 500,000 = 0.0511 You have about a 5% chance of having your car stolen in SF annually.

Your math is right but the numbers you based it on were not. (70*365) / 500,000 = 0.0511 You have about a 5% chance of having your car stolen in SF annually. Or to replicate your process: 70 / 500,000 = 0.00014 1 - 0.00014 = 0.99986 0.99986^365 = 0.950180248299 Again, about a 5% annual rate.