4 ms·

San Fran has rougly 800k people and assuming that 70 cars gets stolen a day and everyone there has a car, that's a 3% chance that your car will get stolen with

San Fran has rougly 800k people and assuming that 70 cars gets stolen a day and everyone there has a car, that's a 3% chance that your car will get stolen within a year. This doesn't obviously address the issue that I doubt there's even 400k cars there which more than doubles the likelyhood. That's not nothing, it's over 25k stolen cars in a year and an enormous burden on the local police force.

stefan_ 7y ago
3%? That seems fine, lock your bike to a light post and keep it overnight, I estimate the likelihood it's going to be stolen at 100%. Of course, with both cars and bikes, police have much more important to do. That's the invariant: whatever the crime, there is surely something more worthy of their attention out there, so nothing is ever done.
- negrit 7y ago
  What kind of argument is that, its not a race to the bottom...
  - michaelscott 7y ago
    Don't think parent is making an argument, just an observation. From personal experience where I live, most people wouldn't bother to even report a stolen bicycle or broken car window because there's so much more serious crime (gang violence etc) that police will inevitably treat your "petty" case as less important. It's terrible, but it's just the way of things in some places.
- brewdad 7y ago
  Want to solve more car break-in and bike theft cases? Authorize the police to roll the helicopters and armored personnel carriers to catch suspects. We've bought police all these toys and their not going to want to work a case unless they get to use them. I'm only half-joking.
jmkb 7y ago
Car burglary != car theft. The 70/day number refers to break-ins, generally a broken car window and stolen belongings -- loose change, usb charger, fuzzy dice, laptop, whatever.
- gruez 7y ago
  Don't forget the side window that costs a few hundred (at least) to replace.
  - yellowapple 7y ago
    Yep, which is exactly why I haven't replaced mine after it got busted. Instead I "rebuilt" it with clear Gorilla Tape and a Prop 65 sign (because everything in California causes cancer, apparently). Naturally, it's the one window that even my Haynes Book says "don't try replacing it yourself; hire a professional". Thanks, guy-who-desperately-wanted-my-jumper-cables-and-jump-box-out-of-the-back-of-my-car. Real considerate of you.
  - asdff 7y ago
    I've been burgled (sp?) twice now and both times the window was intact. I think people who do this regularly have the tools the cops and tow guys have. Makes it look waay discrete rifling in a car with the door opened normally, you could probably do it in broad daylight in front of the police station and be fine. Smash and grab makes sense if you don't have those tools and know no one, not even pedestrians, react to broken glass or car alarms in that part of town.
- goobynight 7y ago
  While I agree the car theft is different, let's not pretend losing your window and several goods (potentially linked to your livelihood) is simple to deal with.
deleted 7y ago
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stefan_ 7y ago

3%? That seems fine, lock your bike to a light post and keep it overnight, I estimate the likelihood it's going to be stolen at 100%. Of course, with both cars and bikes, police have much more important to do. That's the invariant: whatever the crime, there is surely something more worthy of their attention out there, so nothing is ever done.

negrit 7y ago
What kind of argument is that, its not a race to the bottom...
- michaelscott 7y ago
  Don't think parent is making an argument, just an observation. From personal experience where I live, most people wouldn't bother to even report a stolen bicycle or broken car window because there's so much more serious crime (gang violence etc) that police will inevitably treat your "petty" case as less important. It's terrible, but it's just the way of things in some places.
brewdad 7y ago
Want to solve more car break-in and bike theft cases? Authorize the police to roll the helicopters and armored personnel carriers to catch suspects. We've bought police all these toys and their not going to want to work a case unless they get to use them. I'm only half-joking.

jmkb 7y ago

Car burglary != car theft. The 70/day number refers to break-ins, generally a broken car window and stolen belongings -- loose change, usb charger, fuzzy dice, laptop, whatever.

gruez 7y ago
Don't forget the side window that costs a few hundred (at least) to replace.
- yellowapple 7y ago
  Yep, which is exactly why I haven't replaced mine after it got busted. Instead I "rebuilt" it with clear Gorilla Tape and a Prop 65 sign (because everything in California causes cancer, apparently). Naturally, it's the one window that even my Haynes Book says "don't try replacing it yourself; hire a professional". Thanks, guy-who-desperately-wanted-my-jumper-cables-and-jump-box-out-of-the-back-of-my-car. Real considerate of you.
- asdff 7y ago
  I've been burgled (sp?) twice now and both times the window was intact. I think people who do this regularly have the tools the cops and tow guys have. Makes it look waay discrete rifling in a car with the door opened normally, you could probably do it in broad daylight in front of the police station and be fine. Smash and grab makes sense if you don't have those tools and know no one, not even pedestrians, react to broken glass or car alarms in that part of town.
goobynight 7y ago
While I agree the car theft is different, let's not pretend losing your window and several goods (potentially linked to your livelihood) is simple to deal with.

deleted 7y ago

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