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I saw this tweet recently, by patio11: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1199366332468224000 https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1199366332468224000 "Tokyo has

I saw this tweet recently, by patio11: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1199366332468224000 https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1199366332468224000 "Tokyo has positive population growth of about 100,000 people a year, and rents and home prices are roughly stable for last decade. How? Outconstructing NYC. And LA. And SF. And Boston. And Houston. Combined. Every year."

iguy 7y ago
Does anyone know how much of such construction is re-construction, and how much new stock? I have heard (but am not sure) that the pattern is more to buy some land, knock down the previous guy's house, and build your own. On a time-scale of 20-30 years, closer to how Americans regard cars (e.g. having to buy used cars is undesirable) than how they regard houses (once built they stay in use forever, although renovated).
- alistairSH 7y ago
  A fair chunk of that rebuilding is due to more relaxed zoning which is additive instead of single-purpose. In the US, zones tend to be "single family home", "apartments", "town homes", "commercial", "retail". No overlap and the housing variants don't allow increased density without re-zoning, which is expensive. In Japan, zones are more like a maximum usage. "homes", "homes+retail", "home+retail+commercial", etc. The housing zones are less restrictive - typically single family, duplex, and low-rise apartments are all allowed in the basic residential zone. High-rise would be in a different zone, along with retail, commercial, etc.
  - iguy 7y ago
    Thanks, yes I'd heard it was more mixed. If you had to guess the proportion of construction which was new floor area (not just building 3 stories, but replacing a 1-story thing, etc.) would this be 10%, 50%, 90%? (I would blindly guess 90% for the US.)
theobeers 7y ago
Without disputing the main point, I wonder if he meant net new construction. He was asked about this in the replies and didn’t give a real answer. Houses in Japan have tended to be torn down and rebuilt every twenty to thirty years. It’s an unusual situation, owing to various factors, including code updates for earthquake resistance. An article on this topic: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusabl...
MarketRateSucks 7y ago
Tokyo also has mixed-rate zoning and the culture is not built around using a developed proprty to build equity but rather continual reproduction of a living space.
papreclip 7y ago
Tokyo is an 845 mi² megacity. Is population growth of 100k/yr something a city should aspire to? At a certain point I feel like some kind of family planning makes sense at larger levels of society just like it does with the family unit. I don't look forward to the day when there are 1000 mi² of concrete and 20M people crammed together where San Diego used to be
- sib 7y ago
  Japan overall is in a long-term _negative_ population growth trend, so the Tokyo population growth seems to reflect an in-country geographic shift, rather than a problem with too-permissive family planning.
- balfirevic 7y ago
  If people want to come live there you can either build homes for them or they will outbid existing inhabitants, housing prices will shoot up and less wealthy people will have to move out. Those are the options. You can decide which one you look forward to more.

iguy 7y ago

Does anyone know how much of such construction is re-construction, and how much new stock? I have heard (but am not sure) that the pattern is more to buy some land, knock down the previous guy's house, and build your own. On a time-scale of 20-30 years, closer to how Americans regard cars (e.g. having to buy used cars is undesirable) than how they regard houses (once built they stay in use forever, although renovated).

alistairSH 7y ago
A fair chunk of that rebuilding is due to more relaxed zoning which is additive instead of single-purpose. In the US, zones tend to be "single family home", "apartments", "town homes", "commercial", "retail". No overlap and the housing variants don't allow increased density without re-zoning, which is expensive. In Japan, zones are more like a maximum usage. "homes", "homes+retail", "home+retail+commercial", etc. The housing zones are less restrictive - typically single family, duplex, and low-rise apartments are all allowed in the basic residential zone. High-rise would be in a different zone, along with retail, commercial, etc.
- iguy 7y ago
  Thanks, yes I'd heard it was more mixed. If you had to guess the proportion of construction which was new floor area (not just building 3 stories, but replacing a 1-story thing, etc.) would this be 10%, 50%, 90%? (I would blindly guess 90% for the US.)

theobeers 7y ago

Without disputing the main point, I wonder if he meant net new construction. He was asked about this in the replies and didn’t give a real answer. Houses in Japan have tended to be torn down and rebuilt every twenty to thirty years. It’s an unusual situation, owing to various factors, including code updates for earthquake resistance. An article on this topic: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusabl...

MarketRateSucks 7y ago

Tokyo also has mixed-rate zoning and the culture is not built around using a developed proprty to build equity but rather continual reproduction of a living space.

papreclip 7y ago

Tokyo is an 845 mi² megacity. Is population growth of 100k/yr something a city should aspire to? At a certain point I feel like some kind of family planning makes sense at larger levels of society just like it does with the family unit. I don't look forward to the day when there are 1000 mi² of concrete and 20M people crammed together where San Diego used to be

sib 7y ago
Japan overall is in a long-term _negative_ population growth trend, so the Tokyo population growth seems to reflect an in-country geographic shift, rather than a problem with too-permissive family planning.
balfirevic 7y ago
If people want to come live there you can either build homes for them or they will outbid existing inhabitants, housing prices will shoot up and less wealthy people will have to move out. Those are the options. You can decide which one you look forward to more.