6 ms·

There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. Watch how the majority of the roadmap is still

by chx 7y ago

There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. Watch how the majority of the roadmap is still on 14nm into 2021, there never will be a desktop 10nm for example. The Rocket Lake desktop chips in 2021 still on 14nm will drop down to eight cores to cram the new GPU architecture into desktop chips at a truly ridiculous 125 W. The Ryzen 9 3900 today does 65W w/ 12 cores and and you can easily squeeze in a 1650 into the remaining 60W.

toast0 7y ago
Well from that roadmap, I see 6 core Comet Lake U (high end mobile) set for Q2 2020; we don't know how many cores AMD is planning for Zen2 mobile. If AMD sticks to 4, and Intel has 6, that's going to swing some buyers. The (leaked) Intel roadmaps tend to have more specifics than the AMD ones though.
- chx 7y ago
  It's still 14nm, even the quad core KLR chips were a minor miracle and only brought 25-30% from the dual core KBL.
- sundvor 7y ago
  Just about every 6 core mobile CPU laptop struggles with thermals. 7nm could conceivably upend that.
  - wtallis 7y ago
    For as long as the ultrabook design remains popular (and it shows no signs of waning), the high-end CPU options will be riding the edge of their thermal limits during sustained use. OEMs aren't going to suddenly start over-building their cooling solutions just to help out marginally with a niche use case. As long as we don't get back to the problems from a decade ago with dying mobile GPUs, there's not really anything wrong with having CPUs that boost up to the thermal limits of the system form factor. If someone comes out with a laptop CPU that can't boost up to those thermal limits, it means the chip's undersized and that vendor will probably need a different microarchitecture for the desktop or server markets.
    - sundvor 7y ago
      I think my point is that a lot of laptops have been held back (throttled) by the thermal solutions not being able to cope with the heat. More efficient design will give better perf.
      - wtallis 7y ago
        You have to take into consideration what kind of workloads lead to throttling. Laptops are usually not used for the kind of tasks that keep a CPU fully loaded for several minutes or hours at a time. People who do use laptops in that manner are a tiny fraction of the market, and when they experience throttling that does not have any bearing on whether the cooling system of an ultrabook is adequate for the kinds of more typical workloads it is actually designed for. There have been some ultrabook-style designs that offered inadequate cooling even for fairly normal use cases, but that's a separate issue. Mainstream laptops will be designed around mainstream workloads, and heavier workloads will push them to their limits. Better cooling doesn't come free, and if it doesn't benefit mainstream workloads it's unreasonable to expect mainstream laptops to put more emphasis on cooling capabilities.
        adrianN 7y ago
        > Laptops are usually not used for the kind of tasks that keep a CPU fully loaded for several minutes or hours at a time. Web developers work hard to change this. Browsing without an adblocker and with Javascript enabled is often enough.
        j-c-hewitt 7y ago
        Right. I get the sense that most developers browse with adblock on, but the average user experience is for their computer to be effectively running Prime 95 during regular web browsing.
        sundvor 7y ago
        Sorry, but if I buy a six core laptop, I'm not going to be in the casual notepad user category. In many laptops, thanks to bad thermals I'd be better off with a 4 core where the thermals can keep up. That's where the 7nm stuff could really bring advantages. I've been able to load up my desktop six core plenty using e.g Docker and a bunch of microservices. It has a fairly decent 360mm AIO water cooler so stays pinned at max perf. Had a bad cooler before, though, and it really impacted perf and stability.
- navjack27 7y ago
  Comet 6 core already exists and I bought one to review. 10710U
tapland 7y ago
Now TDP isn't really reflecting output and can't be compared well across brands. But a 2x difference in TDP is a lot more than the different ways of calculating them between amd and intel
- davrosthedalek 7y ago
  Especially since intel normally has a bigger spread between declared TDP and actual TDP.
baybal2 7y ago
> There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. Watch how the majority of the roadmap is still on 14nm into 2021, there never will be a desktop 10nm for example. From what I heard from a man close to Intel process crowd is that Intel will simply slap a 7nm marketing designation on their current 10nm process when they finally get it going. They will then change design rules to deliver enough density change, comparable to a node shrink without any change in the process.
- HelloNurse 7y ago
  Design rules don't change because marketing says so. It is reasonable to begin early processor development in a new process with conservative design rules (in order to be sure that everything works and yields are acceptable) and rework some components, pushing the envelope a little more, if tests allow it; but such improvements are going to be small "without any change in the process". Maybe the same specifications on a slightly smaller die to reduce costs or a slightly higher clock or lower power SKU. Or nothing at all because the tooling costs for marginally improved revised processors aren't justified.
- chx 7y ago
  The 7nm is using EUV and the performance per watt would immediately tell if it were not using EUV...
kllrnohj 7y ago
> There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. 10nm products have "shipped" and put up a solid fight: https://www.anandtech.com/show/15092/the-dell-xps-13-7390-2in1-review-the-ice-lake-cometh https://www.anandtech.com/show/15092/the-dell-xps-13-7390-2i... It shows good performance and strong efficiency. 10nm desktop & server parts seem entirely MIA and dead. But it seems that Intel is able to at least struggle out small laptop parts on the process.

by chx 7y ago

toast0 7y ago

Well from that roadmap, I see 6 core Comet Lake U (high end mobile) set for Q2 2020; we don't know how many cores AMD is planning for Zen2 mobile. If AMD sticks to 4, and Intel has 6, that's going to swing some buyers. The (leaked) Intel roadmaps tend to have more specifics than the AMD ones though.

chx 7y ago
It's still 14nm, even the quad core KLR chips were a minor miracle and only brought 25-30% from the dual core KBL.
sundvor 7y ago
Just about every 6 core mobile CPU laptop struggles with thermals. 7nm could conceivably upend that.
- wtallis 7y ago
  For as long as the ultrabook design remains popular (and it shows no signs of waning), the high-end CPU options will be riding the edge of their thermal limits during sustained use. OEMs aren't going to suddenly start over-building their cooling solutions just to help out marginally with a niche use case. As long as we don't get back to the problems from a decade ago with dying mobile GPUs, there's not really anything wrong with having CPUs that boost up to the thermal limits of the system form factor. If someone comes out with a laptop CPU that can't boost up to those thermal limits, it means the chip's undersized and that vendor will probably need a different microarchitecture for the desktop or server markets.
  - sundvor 7y ago
    I think my point is that a lot of laptops have been held back (throttled) by the thermal solutions not being able to cope with the heat. More efficient design will give better perf.
    - wtallis 7y ago
      You have to take into consideration what kind of workloads lead to throttling. Laptops are usually not used for the kind of tasks that keep a CPU fully loaded for several minutes or hours at a time. People who do use laptops in that manner are a tiny fraction of the market, and when they experience throttling that does not have any bearing on whether the cooling system of an ultrabook is adequate for the kinds of more typical workloads it is actually designed for. There have been some ultrabook-style designs that offered inadequate cooling even for fairly normal use cases, but that's a separate issue. Mainstream laptops will be designed around mainstream workloads, and heavier workloads will push them to their limits. Better cooling doesn't come free, and if it doesn't benefit mainstream workloads it's unreasonable to expect mainstream laptops to put more emphasis on cooling capabilities.
      - adrianN 7y ago
        > Laptops are usually not used for the kind of tasks that keep a CPU fully loaded for several minutes or hours at a time. Web developers work hard to change this. Browsing without an adblocker and with Javascript enabled is often enough.
        j-c-hewitt 7y ago
        Right. I get the sense that most developers browse with adblock on, but the average user experience is for their computer to be effectively running Prime 95 during regular web browsing.
      - sundvor 7y ago
        Sorry, but if I buy a six core laptop, I'm not going to be in the casual notepad user category. In many laptops, thanks to bad thermals I'd be better off with a 4 core where the thermals can keep up. That's where the 7nm stuff could really bring advantages. I've been able to load up my desktop six core plenty using e.g Docker and a bunch of microservices. It has a fairly decent 360mm AIO water cooler so stays pinned at max perf. Had a bad cooler before, though, and it really impacted perf and stability.
navjack27 7y ago
Comet 6 core already exists and I bought one to review. 10710U

tapland 7y ago

Now TDP isn't really reflecting output and can't be compared well across brands. But a 2x difference in TDP is a lot more than the different ways of calculating them between amd and intel

davrosthedalek 7y ago
Especially since intel normally has a bigger spread between declared TDP and actual TDP.

baybal2 7y ago

> There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. Watch how the majority of the roadmap is still on 14nm into 2021, there never will be a desktop 10nm for example. From what I heard from a man close to Intel process crowd is that Intel will simply slap a 7nm marketing designation on their current 10nm process when they finally get it going. They will then change design rules to deliver enough density change, comparable to a node shrink without any change in the process.

HelloNurse 7y ago
Design rules don't change because marketing says so. It is reasonable to begin early processor development in a new process with conservative design rules (in order to be sure that everything works and yields are acceptable) and rework some components, pushing the envelope a little more, if tests allow it; but such improvements are going to be small "without any change in the process". Maybe the same specifications on a slightly smaller die to reduce costs or a slightly higher clock or lower power SKU. Or nothing at all because the tooling costs for marginally improved revised processors aren't justified.
chx 7y ago
The 7nm is using EUV and the performance per watt would immediately tell if it were not using EUV...

kllrnohj 7y ago

> There are no rabbits in the hat until late 2021 when 7nm comes to market. The 10nm process is completely broken. 10nm products have "shipped" and put up a solid fight: https://www.anandtech.com/show/15092/the-dell-xps-13-7390-2in1-review-the-ice-lake-cometh https://www.anandtech.com/show/15092/the-dell-xps-13-7390-2i... It shows good performance and strong efficiency. 10nm desktop & server parts seem entirely MIA and dead. But it seems that Intel is able to at least struggle out small laptop parts on the process.