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> "There have always been paradigm shifts, therefore there will be more", isn't that the very definition of wishful thinking? It'd be wishful thinking if there
by BjoernKW 7y ago
> "There have always been paradigm shifts, therefore there will be more", isn't that the very definition of wishful thinking?
It'd be wishful thinking if there was no evidence to back up that claim. However, these paradigm shifts have happened in the past: hunter-gatherer society -> nomadism -> husbandry -> agriculture -> crop rotation -> industrialisation -> information age / green revolution -> digitalisation
Extrapolating from that there's no reason to assume this will suddenly end.
I'm in favour of doing realistic accounting. However, the original title was something along the lines of "In order to reduce energy consumption we need to give up growth.", which turns Jancovici's conclusion on its head.
Not taking into account or neglecting the GDP/NRJ part of the equation and solely focussing on NRJ/POP is tantamount to falling for the same defeatist Malthusian fallacy that we're doomed anyway.
- wazoox 7y ago> It'd be wishful thinking if there was no evidence to back up that claim. Sorry but no, this is a hint at best. This not evidence. Everything comes to an end, eventually. Regarding the GDP/NRJ ratio: the coupling is somewhat less strong, however we're far from the strong negative coupling that would be necessary for our coming energy landscape. As Jancovici said (in this article or another), we always went from an energy source to a better one ( hunting to agriculture; muscles to wind to coal to oil); we never experienced going back to less concentrated ones.