3 ms·

> there was at best a 1/6 chance of the mission succeeding. If you had the chance to go to the moon but knew you had about a 10% chance of success (the odds imp

by Udik 7y ago

> there was at best a 1/6 chance of the mission succeeding. If you had the chance to go to the moon but knew you had about a 10% chance of success (the odds improved substantially with later missions), That doesn't seem very plausible, given that six missions brought astronauts to the moon (plus one that famously failed but returning all the crew to earth alive). If the initial odds were under 1/6, what brought them so much higher in the following missions that you had seven in a row without loss of human life?

OnlineGladiator 7y ago
I agree with you it seems so implausible that I question it myself. I do not know what upgrades were made to parts between missions. I believe a better understanding of atmospheric conditions can explain a lot of risk mitigation, but I can't imagine it being that significant. Since I never actually mentioned it, my source is a documentary on Netflix (I don't remember which one, and it very well may no longer be there). Buzz Aldrin was describing how they were testing components, and one part in particular was tested 6 times and failed 3 times. There were some other parts he mentioned, and when you multiplied the cascading failures it came out to a 1/6 chance of success (he didn't calculate that number, and he mentioned there were other parts as well where he didn't list the failure rates - my 10% number is a fuzzy guess). I admit memories are fuzzy, but I distinctly remember him saying there was a single component with a 50% failure rate. I assume they upgraded this part (as well as others) for future missions.
- jquery 7y ago
  With all due respect to Buzz, I think there was a bit of “and the fish we caught was this big” in his storytelling. The moon landing is amazing enough on its own without him shooting off about parts that failed half the time. It just fuels conspiracy theories when one of the astronauts can’t help but (probably) exaggerate. Again, massive respect to the guy, but if he’s wondering why conspiracy theories exist, stories like this help fuel them. Also let me be clear, the moon landing conspiracy theories have been debunked pretty thoroughly, and the landing has been documented in painstaking detail, but we should be mindful that such an incredible accomplishment will inspire incredulity. Like how some people think the great pyramids were made by aliens because how could such an ancient civilization build them. Our reaction to conspiracy theorists should be to debunk them and educate them, not to call them crazy. In this case, they aren’t crazy, because if someone tells you they went to the moon and returned, you are right to ask questions. (I’m not talking about bad-faith people who will deny all the evidence)

by Udik 7y ago

OnlineGladiator 7y ago

I agree with you it seems so implausible that I question it myself. I do not know what upgrades were made to parts between missions. I believe a better understanding of atmospheric conditions can explain a lot of risk mitigation, but I can't imagine it being that significant. Since I never actually mentioned it, my source is a documentary on Netflix (I don't remember which one, and it very well may no longer be there). Buzz Aldrin was describing how they were testing components, and one part in particular was tested 6 times and failed 3 times. There were some other parts he mentioned, and when you multiplied the cascading failures it came out to a 1/6 chance of success (he didn't calculate that number, and he mentioned there were other parts as well where he didn't list the failure rates - my 10% number is a fuzzy guess). I admit memories are fuzzy, but I distinctly remember him saying there was a single component with a 50% failure rate. I assume they upgraded this part (as well as others) for future missions.

jquery 7y ago
With all due respect to Buzz, I think there was a bit of “and the fish we caught was this big” in his storytelling. The moon landing is amazing enough on its own without him shooting off about parts that failed half the time. It just fuels conspiracy theories when one of the astronauts can’t help but (probably) exaggerate. Again, massive respect to the guy, but if he’s wondering why conspiracy theories exist, stories like this help fuel them. Also let me be clear, the moon landing conspiracy theories have been debunked pretty thoroughly, and the landing has been documented in painstaking detail, but we should be mindful that such an incredible accomplishment will inspire incredulity. Like how some people think the great pyramids were made by aliens because how could such an ancient civilization build them. Our reaction to conspiracy theorists should be to debunk them and educate them, not to call them crazy. In this case, they aren’t crazy, because if someone tells you they went to the moon and returned, you are right to ask questions. (I’m not talking about bad-faith people who will deny all the evidence)