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> Help me understand what you mean by "worse than naive" here. "Naive" in this context generally means they were overly trusting when there was no evidence to
by gwd 7y ago
> Help me understand what you mean by "worse than naive" here.
"Naive" in this context generally means they were overly trusting when there was no evidence to suggest trust was warranted. I'd interpret "worse than naive" as saying that they are actually evidence to the contrary.
The logic presented is, "We need more money, so we sold it to this private equity firm. But don't worry, they're not going to try to squeeze lots of money from it."
The starting point for any for-profit company -- no matter how ethically run -- is that they buy things because the expected value to them will be higher than the cash they paid for it. We must assume that the expected value of PIR to the equity company is higher than the amount they paid IS for it. Which means, either IS is actually getting less (or at best the same) money than they would have for keeping PIR, or it means that Ethos is going to charge significantly more than IS is. The fact that Ethos bought PIR is prima facae evidence that it's a bad deal for either IS or for the internet as a whole.
I mean, there are other possibilities, but none is really good. It's possible that someone at Ethos capital actually did want to do IS a favor, and way over-paid for PIR. But that's just a form of embezzlement; I certainly wouldn't feel any better to know that .org was bought by someone who was either incompetent or a criminal.
If you want to set up a long-term self-funding organization to do good rather than making money, you don't do private equity; you set up a foundation. Ethos, or whoever wants to make the world a better place, could provide a loan to such an organization.
And even if you do decide to buy something, you put your promises in writing in the form of a contract.
And even supposing Ethos really does mean all the things they say. Suppose something happens and they go bust and have to liquidate their assets. What happens then?
There are just so many red flags here, that "too trusting" doesn't even begin to describe it.
- jfim 7y agoYour scenarios are not mutually exclusive. To maximize their expected value, you say that they could: 1. Earn less than IS would 2. Charge more than IS would It's actually: 1. They could earn less than IS would, because they're generous, incompetent, or some other reason 2. They could earn more than IS would, because they increase the prices, run PIR more efficiently than IS would, increase the number of registrations more than IS would, or some other reason In scenario two, which is the most interesting, they could jack up prices, but they could also run the business better, such as running the business more efficiently or driving more business through advertising. I agree with you that the former is likelier, but not necessarily the only reason why the deal would have a positive expected value for Ethos. It could be that the deal is a win-win one, where IS gets more money than they'd be able to make out of PIR, and yet, Ethos comes ahead too by running it better than IS could.
- wpietri 7y agoIf you have some evidence that this is the case, feel free to give it. But they've already outsourced the running of the registry to somebody else, so any obvious efficiency gains have presumably already been taken. And if they haven't, there's no reason to think a fresh-minted PE company would do any better than hiring a competent manager.