20 ms·

Funny you sure sound like one of the tinfoil bears.

tempsy 7y ago
Objectively how does a $100 deposit for a $50k good to be delivered in 2+ years make logical sense? And does anyone actual think that most of these 250k people actually intend to buy the truck when it comes time to put down the $49900+?
- cagenut 7y ago
  don't think of it as a deposit, think of it as reserving your place in line. whenever tesla gets around to being able to deliver you have to make up your mind, but at least you know you won't have to wait at the back of the line if you decide you do want it. its an option not a deposit. tesla obviously doesn't expect them all to convert, in fact they have their internal numbers on how well the model3 reservations converted so they can make a much more accurate estimate than either you or I. tell me a marketing department for a product that can't be shipped for 2 years that wouldn't kill for a list of not just warm leads, but people who had out and out handed over money! its like they managed to get the customers to pay for the marketing budget.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    Model 3 was a $1000 deposit. They dropped it to $100 for the Cybertruck despite it being more expensive. So they expect to convert fewer people than the Model 3. Likely far fewer. So if Elon knows few people will convert then why call it a "pre order" and why does he keep announcing the numbers on Twitter every few hours? Either way despite the frothy market investors don't appear to be biting at the preorder numbers anyway, but the whole preorder song and dance feels like the world's biggest Kickstarter whose main function is raising a bunch of interest free loans.
  - mdszy 7y ago
    They're still referring to them as "orders" regardless as to whether you define them as such or not.
    - greglindahl 7y ago
      The contract involved is public, so maybe the exact words used to summarize it isn't that important? There was a lot of squabbling over the words used to summarize the Model S, X, and 3 waiting lists, too. I don't think anything good came out of the discussion.
- Nasrudith 7y ago
  You answered your own question with your previous objections you know. You complained about the supposed lack of capacity factor - now you complain about the distance of the preorder? Well that shows the utility of the preorder with lower production capacity, doesn't it? A $100 deposit is large enough that people wouldn't feel overtly locked in while confirming a rough number for scaling. As opposed to other "probably want it" who decide not to preorder for $1000. The function is mostly marketting in the "business intelligence" sense and the assumption that preorder fall throughs would be matched by non-preorder purchase demand is reasonable for anything which isn't a massive stinker.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    this is quite the mental gymnastics. this is a brand new vehicle that is unlike anything they've offered in the past. they have historical data on conversion for the Tesla 3 preorders with a $1000 deposit. now they're offering preorders on something that is more expensive and "unique" for 1/10th the preorder amount. how would a business intelligence analyst on their team even begin to predict how many of these customers actually intend to convert given the data they have? If they actually wanted a rough idea on how many people actually intend to order in order to plan how many resources they need to throw at cybertruck production then they've done everything possible to make their job harder with the preorder decisions they've made.
hef19898 7y ago
I think a lot of that perceived tin-foil-hat-bear thing comes from the way you look at Tesla. If you look at it the way I, and I suppose the OP does, as a car manufacturer, in deed a lot of things seem odd. Odd enough to be bearish. If you look at Tesla as a tech company, things are largely different.

Objectively how does a $100 deposit for a $50k good to be delivered in 2+ years make logical sense? And does anyone actual think that most of these 250k people actually intend to buy the truck when it comes time to put down the $49900+?

cagenut 7y ago
don't think of it as a deposit, think of it as reserving your place in line. whenever tesla gets around to being able to deliver you have to make up your mind, but at least you know you won't have to wait at the back of the line if you decide you do want it. its an option not a deposit. tesla obviously doesn't expect them all to convert, in fact they have their internal numbers on how well the model3 reservations converted so they can make a much more accurate estimate than either you or I. tell me a marketing department for a product that can't be shipped for 2 years that wouldn't kill for a list of not just warm leads, but people who had out and out handed over money! its like they managed to get the customers to pay for the marketing budget.
- tempsy 7y ago
  Model 3 was a $1000 deposit. They dropped it to $100 for the Cybertruck despite it being more expensive. So they expect to convert fewer people than the Model 3. Likely far fewer. So if Elon knows few people will convert then why call it a "pre order" and why does he keep announcing the numbers on Twitter every few hours? Either way despite the frothy market investors don't appear to be biting at the preorder numbers anyway, but the whole preorder song and dance feels like the world's biggest Kickstarter whose main function is raising a bunch of interest free loans.
- mdszy 7y ago
  They're still referring to them as "orders" regardless as to whether you define them as such or not.
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    The contract involved is public, so maybe the exact words used to summarize it isn't that important? There was a lot of squabbling over the words used to summarize the Model S, X, and 3 waiting lists, too. I don't think anything good came out of the discussion.
Nasrudith 7y ago
You answered your own question with your previous objections you know. You complained about the supposed lack of capacity factor - now you complain about the distance of the preorder? Well that shows the utility of the preorder with lower production capacity, doesn't it? A $100 deposit is large enough that people wouldn't feel overtly locked in while confirming a rough number for scaling. As opposed to other "probably want it" who decide not to preorder for $1000. The function is mostly marketting in the "business intelligence" sense and the assumption that preorder fall throughs would be matched by non-preorder purchase demand is reasonable for anything which isn't a massive stinker.
- tempsy 7y ago
  this is quite the mental gymnastics. this is a brand new vehicle that is unlike anything they've offered in the past. they have historical data on conversion for the Tesla 3 preorders with a $1000 deposit. now they're offering preorders on something that is more expensive and "unique" for 1/10th the preorder amount. how would a business intelligence analyst on their team even begin to predict how many of these customers actually intend to convert given the data they have? If they actually wanted a rough idea on how many people actually intend to order in order to plan how many resources they need to throw at cybertruck production then they've done everything possible to make their job harder with the preorder decisions they've made.

hef19898 7y ago

I think a lot of that perceived tin-foil-hat-bear thing comes from the way you look at Tesla. If you look at it the way I, and I suppose the OP does, as a car manufacturer, in deed a lot of things seem odd. Odd enough to be bearish. If you look at Tesla as a tech company, things are largely different.