It's exactly this. You have to judge a decision based on the merits of the decision, not on the outcome. A great example is poker. I should call an all-in on a

It's exactly this. You have to judge a decision based on the merits of the decision, not on the outcome. A great example is poker. I should call an all-in on a hand I will win 95% of the time. I will still lose one in twenty times. That does not mean it was a bad decision.