3 ms·

I often wonder if all these projections about self driving, VR, and before that, 3D printing, are essentially wish fulfillment for and from a biased audience. I

I often wonder if all these projections about self driving, VR, and before that, 3D printing, are essentially wish fulfillment for and from a biased audience. I'd want to say that self driving cars are just around the corner, because that's the future I want to live in. In that case, I wonder what it says about our present reality. The need to make such gloriously optimistic projections about self driving cars essentially indicates that driving isn't fun to a lot of people (ergo, car makers are making boring cars), or that commuting is too unpleasant (ergo, city planners have been slacking)

TrainedMonkey 7y ago
Amara's law is almost a cognitive bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara#Amara's_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara#Amara's_law
mettamage 7y ago
I don't see VR and 3D printing as wish fulfillment. While they're both relatively niche (from my consumerist perspective), they do fulfill roles. VR is good for therapeutic immersive reasons, for example [1]. And 3D printing, well, shooting rockets into the stratosphere, for example [2]. IMO VR and 3D printing are real, albeit niche. Self-driving cars aren't fully there yet. [1] https://www.geekwire.com/2018/snowworld-melts-away-pain-burn-patients-using-virtual-reality-snowballs/ https://www.geekwire.com/2018/snowworld-melts-away-pain-burn... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSAB2KNgVso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSAB2KNgVso
- mumblemumble 7y ago
  I'd still say VR and 3D printing are (historically) overhyped. Within their respective niches, they're very effective technologies. But there's also this idea they're going to change the consumer landscape, because everyone's going to have one in their home, and use it all the time. e.g., my experience with consumer-grade 3D printing is that it still kind of sucks. It makes home fabrication marginally more convenient than it was without 3D printing, and a lot more aggravating. Even with the rise of gig economy 3D printing services, which have made me a lot happier by removing the hassle of actually operating a 3D printer and giving me access to much better equipment than I'd ever buy for myself, I find that the best executed prints that I order still require significant manual finishing time. It's still just an extremely far cry from the "You'll never need stuff shipped to you because you can just print it at home" hype that surrounded the technology 5 or 10 years back.
- puranjay 7y ago
  3D printing, when it was at the crest of its hype wave, was posited as a replacement for shopping. That you'd just buy a design and print your shoes and shirts at home. It was going to change consumer behavior completely - or so we were told. VR, again, was posited as the end of "reality" itself, that we'd be living so much in our virtual worlds that the boundaries between the real and the virtual will cease. While these might still happen, it's safe to say that their current applications are much narrower than the original scope
- mettamage 7y ago
  @ puranjay and mumblemumble, okay fair enough. I see your point. I'm realizing that I don't think too much about hype. And now I remember why that is :P
Mvhsz 7y ago
I think there's some value in hyping up a new technology, trying to apply it in a lot of places, and settling on a smaller number of logical applications. I think that's what happened with VR [1] and 3D printing [2]. Self-driving isn't as far along, but the Waymo videos I've seen make me pretty sure it will have it's place in our future. [1] https://www.superdataresearch.com/superdata-xr-update/ https://www.superdataresearch.com/superdata-xr-update/ [2] https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-07-11-Giant-Satellite-Fuel-Tank-Sets-New-Record-for-3-D-Printed-Space-Parts https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-07-11-Giant-Satellite-F...

TrainedMonkey 7y ago

Amara's law is almost a cognitive bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara#Amara's_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara#Amara's_law

mettamage 7y ago

I don't see VR and 3D printing as wish fulfillment. While they're both relatively niche (from my consumerist perspective), they do fulfill roles. VR is good for therapeutic immersive reasons, for example [1]. And 3D printing, well, shooting rockets into the stratosphere, for example [2]. IMO VR and 3D printing are real, albeit niche. Self-driving cars aren't fully there yet. [1] https://www.geekwire.com/2018/snowworld-melts-away-pain-burn-patients-using-virtual-reality-snowballs/ https://www.geekwire.com/2018/snowworld-melts-away-pain-burn... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSAB2KNgVso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSAB2KNgVso

mumblemumble 7y ago
I'd still say VR and 3D printing are (historically) overhyped. Within their respective niches, they're very effective technologies. But there's also this idea they're going to change the consumer landscape, because everyone's going to have one in their home, and use it all the time. e.g., my experience with consumer-grade 3D printing is that it still kind of sucks. It makes home fabrication marginally more convenient than it was without 3D printing, and a lot more aggravating. Even with the rise of gig economy 3D printing services, which have made me a lot happier by removing the hassle of actually operating a 3D printer and giving me access to much better equipment than I'd ever buy for myself, I find that the best executed prints that I order still require significant manual finishing time. It's still just an extremely far cry from the "You'll never need stuff shipped to you because you can just print it at home" hype that surrounded the technology 5 or 10 years back.
puranjay 7y ago
3D printing, when it was at the crest of its hype wave, was posited as a replacement for shopping. That you'd just buy a design and print your shoes and shirts at home. It was going to change consumer behavior completely - or so we were told. VR, again, was posited as the end of "reality" itself, that we'd be living so much in our virtual worlds that the boundaries between the real and the virtual will cease. While these might still happen, it's safe to say that their current applications are much narrower than the original scope
mettamage 7y ago
@ puranjay and mumblemumble, okay fair enough. I see your point. I'm realizing that I don't think too much about hype. And now I remember why that is :P

Mvhsz 7y ago

I think there's some value in hyping up a new technology, trying to apply it in a lot of places, and settling on a smaller number of logical applications. I think that's what happened with VR [1] and 3D printing [2]. Self-driving isn't as far along, but the Waymo videos I've seen make me pretty sure it will have it's place in our future. [1] https://www.superdataresearch.com/superdata-xr-update/ https://www.superdataresearch.com/superdata-xr-update/ [2] https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-07-11-Giant-Satellite-Fuel-Tank-Sets-New-Record-for-3-D-Printed-Space-Parts https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-07-11-Giant-Satellite-F...