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A cogent and well-written article. My only possible contributions are the following: 1. The author perhaps underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off

A cogent and well-written article. My only possible contributions are the following: 1. The author perhaps underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off as politically irrelevant (in terms of real power) near the start of the article. I do think there's a good reason for this, but we are only one true crisis away from that changing. For example, suppose India and Pakistan only were to have a nuclear engagement and the outcome was a small global "winter" for a few years from the dust and rubble kicked into the atmosphere. When crops and supply chains fail and famine kicks in, who is going hungry? That's about the point that true populist revolts happen. 2. The author discusses at length the phenomenon of "the 10%" elites who align themselves (in ideology) with the working class, perhaps blinded by not realizing that they are actually trying to support their own interests. But I think some underestimate how soon the developers and programmers of the world will crater from "elite 10%/5%/1%" to something resembling median salary. This is my own opinion, but it's clear to me that the tech industry (and it's associated venture capital scene) are in a state of irrational exuberance as the capitalist class is convinced that tech startups (or the word "tech" attached to non-tech startups) offers incredibly high ROI. This paradigm will end as easy opportunities and low hanging fruit dry. Maybe we're already there, but nobody has acknowledged it yet. When this happens (and is widely recognized), venture capital will flee to safer vehicles. Meanwhile, the big tech of the world will consolidate and cut costs to grow shareholder value. When this happens, we will all stop hopping jobs for 30% pay raises and instead we will start hopping jobs (post-layoff) for 30% pay cuts. And this will continue for decades.

isthispermanent 7y ago
> But I think some underestimate how soon the developers and programmers of the world will crater from "elite 10%/5%/1%" to something resembling median salary. I generally agree with this. I think for the traditional programmer building apps and apis this begins to happen in 5-10 years. We'll essentially become mechanics. However, there is always the next front of technology that you can surf. For millennia those on the forefront of technological progress have done well relative to the rest of people. This was due to having skills that were relatively rare, access to equipment that was uncommon or both. Blacksmiths, photographers, car mechanics, stock traders, etc. Programming in certain verticals will be added to that list. But imo there is good news. Being able to create or deploy new technology in ways that creates or protects wealth will always be in demand. And the thing about programming is you are first-and-foremost a problem-solver. Couple that with technical math-based skills and you can bring immense value to most organizations. If you are a "programmer"--I really don't like that term, but whatever. My advice would be to be trained in multiple disciplines across multiple verticals. Know how to look at a business or social problem and deduce it to its fundamental inputs/outputs so that you can then construct a solution that turns those inputs/outputs into the desired result. Hand-wavy, but that really is the key to being valuable. Solve real problems.
spyckie2 7y ago
For your point 2, I think it's really interesting to think about creating value and capturing value. There's currently only 1 measure of success for capitalism, and that's capturing value. Creating value without capturing it is seen as stupid and a waste of time. I wonder if this is slowly changing due to the nature of "capturing value" having so many negative externalities that it really ruins the spirit of creating value.
- humanrebar 7y ago
  I think this is too cynical. Companies routinely crow about charitable work, community involvement, social justice advocacy, cultural benefits of their work, etc. Companies pull out of states with undesirable politics, funds divest from fossil fuels, wealthy capitalists give away wealth, others speak out for higher taxes.... Almost all have some foundation or the other supporting some social good.
tim333 7y ago
>underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off as politically irrelevant (in terms of real power) Yeah, that disregards that they vote and could vote in a considerably different government which they did to an extent with Trump and could flip the other way to a Sanders or similar.
127 7y ago
I do think we are definitely in a state of rapidly declining relevance of need for programming work. Code is an Ouroboros that eats its own tail to grow. Especially with the ethics of open source free software development and the dismantling of moats and credentialism, we might be in an accelerating state of programming jobs vanishing.
- helen___keller 7y ago
  No, I don't think it's even begun yet.
malvosenior 7y ago
Tech has always gone through boom and bust cycles. At the end of the day though, it's really hard to write good software and we're only going to see demand go up over time. There may be some bumps in the road, but there will always be new opportunities. I think programmers are one of the only professions not at risk of automation or disruption as all of that is powered by software which maybe 5%-10% of the population has the ability to write and maintain.
- slfnflctd 7y ago
  > software which maybe 5%-10% of the population has the ability to write and maintain I sure hope you're right about this. I have no doubts on the rest of what you said, but given enough incentives (both push and pull), there may be a lot more latent ability out there than you think. Especially as the on-ramps from raw talent to real productivity keep improving. From my direct personal experience, I suspect there are a bunch of current Uber and Lyft drivers who could definitely code if they had enough reasons to. A lot of them have better social skills than your average coder, too.
  - malvosenior 7y ago
    I used to think most people had the ability to code but ~20 years of managing development has made me reconsider. Most people just really can't deal very well with abstraction and complexity (not to mention things like recursion). I think a lot of people can write some code, but it won't be good and it will require someone more senior to extend, maintain and scale it. So basically the more people who write code, the more in demand those top 10% of people with natural coding ability will be.
StacyRoberts 7y ago
Only due to wider adoption and commoditization of the skill set. It well always be hard to find the best. Home builders once milled their own lumber until the industry commodified the process. Homes didn't get cheaper but the corporations that formed and the knowledge workers who designed them took more of the cost for themselves. The highest paid software folks will be those who simplify the process of making software so more less skilled and and difficult to train people can do it.
jerry1979 7y ago
>The author perhaps underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off as politically irrelevant [...] but we are only one true crisis away from that changing. [...] When crops and supply chains fail and famine kicks in, who is going hungry? Regarding the first point, some people have noticed that food price changes can lead to revolts [1], but I'm not sure that says anything about the political power of the bottom 90% nor whether those revolts would lead to meaningful change. I imagine any food revolt in the US would mirror the Revolutions of 1848 [2]. [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

isthispermanent 7y ago

> But I think some underestimate how soon the developers and programmers of the world will crater from "elite 10%/5%/1%" to something resembling median salary. I generally agree with this. I think for the traditional programmer building apps and apis this begins to happen in 5-10 years. We'll essentially become mechanics. However, there is always the next front of technology that you can surf. For millennia those on the forefront of technological progress have done well relative to the rest of people. This was due to having skills that were relatively rare, access to equipment that was uncommon or both. Blacksmiths, photographers, car mechanics, stock traders, etc. Programming in certain verticals will be added to that list. But imo there is good news. Being able to create or deploy new technology in ways that creates or protects wealth will always be in demand. And the thing about programming is you are first-and-foremost a problem-solver. Couple that with technical math-based skills and you can bring immense value to most organizations. If you are a "programmer"--I really don't like that term, but whatever. My advice would be to be trained in multiple disciplines across multiple verticals. Know how to look at a business or social problem and deduce it to its fundamental inputs/outputs so that you can then construct a solution that turns those inputs/outputs into the desired result. Hand-wavy, but that really is the key to being valuable. Solve real problems.

spyckie2 7y ago

For your point 2, I think it's really interesting to think about creating value and capturing value. There's currently only 1 measure of success for capitalism, and that's capturing value. Creating value without capturing it is seen as stupid and a waste of time. I wonder if this is slowly changing due to the nature of "capturing value" having so many negative externalities that it really ruins the spirit of creating value.

humanrebar 7y ago
I think this is too cynical. Companies routinely crow about charitable work, community involvement, social justice advocacy, cultural benefits of their work, etc. Companies pull out of states with undesirable politics, funds divest from fossil fuels, wealthy capitalists give away wealth, others speak out for higher taxes.... Almost all have some foundation or the other supporting some social good.

tim333 7y ago

>underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off as politically irrelevant (in terms of real power) Yeah, that disregards that they vote and could vote in a considerably different government which they did to an extent with Trump and could flip the other way to a Sanders or similar.

127 7y ago

I do think we are definitely in a state of rapidly declining relevance of need for programming work. Code is an Ouroboros that eats its own tail to grow. Especially with the ethics of open source free software development and the dismantling of moats and credentialism, we might be in an accelerating state of programming jobs vanishing.

helen___keller 7y ago
No, I don't think it's even begun yet.

malvosenior 7y ago

Tech has always gone through boom and bust cycles. At the end of the day though, it's really hard to write good software and we're only going to see demand go up over time. There may be some bumps in the road, but there will always be new opportunities. I think programmers are one of the only professions not at risk of automation or disruption as all of that is powered by software which maybe 5%-10% of the population has the ability to write and maintain.

slfnflctd 7y ago
> software which maybe 5%-10% of the population has the ability to write and maintain I sure hope you're right about this. I have no doubts on the rest of what you said, but given enough incentives (both push and pull), there may be a lot more latent ability out there than you think. Especially as the on-ramps from raw talent to real productivity keep improving. From my direct personal experience, I suspect there are a bunch of current Uber and Lyft drivers who could definitely code if they had enough reasons to. A lot of them have better social skills than your average coder, too.
- malvosenior 7y ago
  I used to think most people had the ability to code but ~20 years of managing development has made me reconsider. Most people just really can't deal very well with abstraction and complexity (not to mention things like recursion). I think a lot of people can write some code, but it won't be good and it will require someone more senior to extend, maintain and scale it. So basically the more people who write code, the more in demand those top 10% of people with natural coding ability will be.

StacyRoberts 7y ago

Only due to wider adoption and commoditization of the skill set. It well always be hard to find the best. Home builders once milled their own lumber until the industry commodified the process. Homes didn't get cheaper but the corporations that formed and the knowledge workers who designed them took more of the cost for themselves. The highest paid software folks will be those who simplify the process of making software so more less skilled and and difficult to train people can do it.

jerry1979 7y ago

>The author perhaps underestimates the bottom 90%, who are written off as politically irrelevant [...] but we are only one true crisis away from that changing. [...] When crops and supply chains fail and famine kicks in, who is going hungry? Regarding the first point, some people have noticed that food price changes can lead to revolts [1], but I'm not sure that says anything about the political power of the bottom 90% nor whether those revolts would lead to meaningful change. I imagine any food revolt in the US would mirror the Revolutions of 1848 [2]. [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848