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Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population

Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population. Japan does a lot of things exceedingly well but demographics are one of those forces of history that are dammed near impossible to mitigate or circumvent without enormous cost, like trying to stop a train with your fist. EDIT: Just to be clear, my point is about demographics, not immigration. We have yet to see if productivity advancements such as robotics can fill the void, but either way, Japan has a significant struggle ahead of itself.

toasterlovin 7y ago
The Japanese are just the first country to tackle the demographic transition without gambling their entire culture and country on mass immigration. We don't know yet whether it's a bad bet. In favor of their approach: 1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable), 2) increasing automation will probably reduce the demand for labor, 3) meanwhile life is still good for Japanese people.
- opportune 7y ago
  "1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable)" Citation needed. Sure fertility is well correlated with educational attainment which is likely somewhat "heritable" by proxy (social class, intelligence, lack of disabilities) but that doesn't mean the heritable effect will be large enough in aggregate.
  - toasterlovin 7y ago
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090513817302799 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109051381...
- theflyinghorse 7y ago
  I think Japanese approach is a good one specifically because of (2). Automation is something that is happening now as we speak and will only continue to accelerate. In fact the entirety of my career has been about reducing human labour or automating it entirely (within fintech, service industry, and IoT).
remarkEon 7y ago
This is begging the question a bit though, isn’t it? Low total fertility in Japan does not necessarily mean “make up the difference with immigrants”. There are other policy options to address that issue.
mrb 7y ago
The demographics of Japan, specifically an aging population and declining birth rate, is unfortunately where ALL modern countries are headed. Anyone who studies demographics knows this (in my part of the world we learn this in middle school). This is the natural result of healthcare improvements and first world parents who choose for various social reasons to have fewer and fewer kids.

toasterlovin 7y ago

The Japanese are just the first country to tackle the demographic transition without gambling their entire culture and country on mass immigration. We don't know yet whether it's a bad bet. In favor of their approach: 1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable), 2) increasing automation will probably reduce the demand for labor, 3) meanwhile life is still good for Japanese people.

opportune 7y ago
"1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable)" Citation needed. Sure fertility is well correlated with educational attainment which is likely somewhat "heritable" by proxy (social class, intelligence, lack of disabilities) but that doesn't mean the heritable effect will be large enough in aggregate.
- toasterlovin 7y ago
  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090513817302799 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109051381...
theflyinghorse 7y ago
I think Japanese approach is a good one specifically because of (2). Automation is something that is happening now as we speak and will only continue to accelerate. In fact the entirety of my career has been about reducing human labour or automating it entirely (within fintech, service industry, and IoT).

remarkEon 7y ago

This is begging the question a bit though, isn’t it? Low total fertility in Japan does not necessarily mean “make up the difference with immigrants”. There are other policy options to address that issue.

mrb 7y ago

The demographics of Japan, specifically an aging population and declining birth rate, is unfortunately where ALL modern countries are headed. Anyone who studies demographics knows this (in my part of the world we learn this in middle school). This is the natural result of healthcare improvements and first world parents who choose for various social reasons to have fewer and fewer kids.