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AI Winter
- bunkydoo 7y agoI'd say spring is in full bloom.
- StudentStuff 7y agoIs OP inferring we are entering another AI Winter after this most recent hype cycle for general AI? Considering we use neural networks to encode audio (in Opus), transcribe our speech, secure our homes and much more, this most recent AI wave has been quite productive.
- z3phyr 7y agoAll AI waves have been very productive. The last ones gave us huge advancements in programming language design, operating systems, networking, hci, spawned a few programming paradigms. .. It does not really translate to the final objective though.
- selestify 7y agoWhat is it that AI has done for all those fields that you mentioned?
- z3phyr 7y agoThe research in AI directly coincided with the development of early computer systems. Lisp and friends (and small but important ideas that come with it ranging from string interning to garbage collection to the macro system to the fundamental idea of compilers and interpreters etc) was contributed to by people mostly involved with Symbolic AI research. The early programming language parsing research is the direct product of researchers working on natural language processing, and in fact the BNF form was developed for natural languages but later adapted and improved for programming languages. The idea of Logic programming with prolog and friends comes directly from AI research. Most of the search algorithms we use unknowingly in various machines have origins in the first AI wave. The human computer interaction research directly dealt with development of fundamental ideas on speech synthesis, graphical user interfaces and computer graphics. All in all, The field of applied AI and Computers developed together and a lot of early ideas spearheaded by AI transferred into fundamental general computing, ideas so trivial we do not even think about them now. But they were not so trivial when they were developed, specifically for AI
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- leonidasv 7y agoI did not post it trying to make any prediction, I just found curious that the term “AI Winter” was coined long before. The article also highlights important historical moments for AI development and how investors appear to overreact to AI results — both good and bad.
- jacquesm 7y agoThe first AI winter was people making grandiose claims about real AI being 'just around the corner' as soon as we had figured out whether to call the main loop 'Ego' or 'Frank'. That of course went nowhere. The current AI revolution has produced a lot of tangible results but is - as far as I understand it - not much closer to AGI than the first one was. And some are - again - overpromising and under-delivering which risks a second AI winter, though for less good reasons. All in all it would be nice if people would stop to make these claims, it isn't helping at all.
- choppaface 7y agoAI hype is pretty excessive right now, but there’s a lot of fuel to keep the fire going: the internet makes the acquisition of data much easier versus the 1980s, accelerators are ubiquitous (and even present in mobile devices), and most importantly current methods (e.g. deep nets and very large linear models) have shown relatively excellent generalization accuracy. The internet also helps with dissemination. The hype isn’t going anywhere, but there’s probably still at least another 5 years of explosive growth left for the field.
- throwawaynothx 7y agoDoes anyone else notice that someone has edited this page and replaced several words with `cuntflaps`
- xvilka 7y agoMissing "is coming" in the title.
- radagaisus 7y agoWith just incrementalism there’s still enough value to extract from the current methods of deep learning to propel a small country into a golden age. Leaps and bounds are needed to get to AGI, but winter comes when there’s no more money on the table, not because we can’t reach our scifi fantasies.
- ngngngng 7y agoThis is as good a place as any to ask this I suppose. Google results being as manipulated as they are these days, what is the best course/book to get to self teach on artificial intelligence? I'd like to spend a few months familiarizing myself with concepts and writing programs with what I learn to see if anything useful comes of it. edit: Found this which answers this perfectly https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15689399 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15689399
- jacquesm 7y agofast.ai
- PrefixKitten 7y agoI'd suggest a university statistics book and a book on data analysis or data mining
- sillysaurusx 7y agoFor a non-traditional hands-on approach, I gathered some resources here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21241092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21241092
- zitterbewegung 7y agoI used this book in school: http://aima.cs.berkeley.edu http://aima.cs.berkeley.edu
- 7y ago
- soup10 7y agoWe're in an AI Summer if anything.
- brink 7y agoIdk, summer is typically something you enjoy.
- soup10 7y agoi don't see any signs of funding or enthusiasm letting up though, these types of posts are more reactionary and goal post moving "well its not really "strong" ai because x" never-mind that lots of people are finding real applications for ML. Processing power to support it is increasing and funding is still flowing.
- codingslave 7y agoReally what we are in the midst of is AI click bait. People are predicting the next "AI Winter", like major publications are predicting the next recession.
- pretendscholar 7y agoJournalists successfully predict 11 out of the last 6 AI winters.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Causality1 7y agoIt's a new thing every year. It was blockchain. Now it's AI and machine learning. Soon there will be a different buzzword to generate clicks and investor funds.
- pjmlp 7y agoAnd when one goes through enough cycles, they learn to wait for the dust to settle or sell shovels, instead of jumping into the race.
- sammorrowdrums 7y agoWell IoT has come back a bit too with "edge processing". Buzzword trends kill me, mostly because of non-technical managers asking about using them with no real understanding of what, how and why, rather than the public buzz they generate. Blockchain is the king of that, but I do think calling ML AI was ridiculous development and I hold steadfast in my use of ML. You are right too, of course, about the investor situation. That one is really bad because nothing says "employ a technology you don't consider a good fit for your business" like $1M... I had to switch prematurely to microservices before due to investor pressure, and the company wasn't ready and you can imagine the rest.
- Amygaz 7y agoCan’t learn to ski without snow... Also the first line on the wiki mention that this entry needs to be updated. The level of funding is as hot as it’s ever been. NOAA predicts a winter with temperatures above the normals. So I would go with that.
- makstaks 7y agoI'm rather confused by the misuse of the term "AI", to the point, I no longer know what is true. I thought true AI needs to pass some sort of test that demonstrates real intelligence? So, did the Singularity event happen already and I didn't notice?
- fouc 7y ago>In computer science, artificial intelligence (AI), sometimes called machine intelligence, is intelligence demonstrated by machines The term AI doesn't actually imply human-level intelligence.
- ganitarashid 7y agoWe are currently in the AI winter. What we have now is not AI it’s curve fitting. Don’t be fooled, the computer does not “understand” it’s doing blind curve fitting.
- skunkworker 7y agoWon't we enter another AI winter unless we can solve things like finding something better than backpropagation or just jumping to the Student model in a Distillation teacher-student model, letting us know there have to be better means out there that we haven't achieved. Though I could be completely wrong and Hinton could come out tomorrow with a groundbreaking paper that furthers another 5 to 10 years of iterative improvements.
- dijksterhuis 7y agoHinton already came out with a “groundbreaking” paper not too long ago - capsule networks.
- p1esk 7y agoCapsules papers don’t strike me as particularly groundbreaking. Still convolving over every single location in the input image, still using backrop. Vectors instead of scalars for activations and a novel way to pass signals between layers? Sure, why not. But if it wasn’t from Hinton no one would’ve noticed. The initial results were underwhelming, and there has been zero progress even 2 years later.
- tapatio 7y agoYeah, it’s winter time and we have AI.
- dr_dshiv 7y agoWith Elon's latest truck, we've just crawled out of the cyber winter. And that was a cold one.
- timonoko 7y agoIn this 1988-video Teuvo Kohonen tells us that future AIs will be "separate units you can attach to your regular computer". This sounds true, methinks real AIs will be treated like human personalities with certain skillz and experience. "This AI has 3 years of experience of driving on congested roads in India, 300€". They will be separate units, because the hardware will be more brain-like, and architecture is constructed or grown as it gains knowledge and skills. https://youtu.be/Qy3h7kT3P5I?t=2479 https://youtu.be/Qy3h7kT3P5I?t=2479