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The article starts by saying and showing with a graph, that people are now underestimating prices more than they used to. It then ends with this quote: > If y
by NickBusey 7y ago
The article starts by saying and showing with a graph, that people are now underestimating prices more than they used to.
It then ends with this quote:
> If you ever find yourself on the game show, the lesson from this research is that whatever you think the price is, your estimate should, as the host says, “come on down.”
Is it just me, or is this advice backwards, and based on the data and graph, you should add around 15% to your estimate to not overshoot the 20% average under-estimate?
- altShiftDev 7y agoI caught that too, I think he confused himself at the end there.
- tempestn 7y agoI thought the same thing. I expect it's just a mistake, but it could make sense in a way: it's possible over-estimates of price aren't counted, because any amount over and you lose. So if only successful guesses are averaged, only the negative side of the variance is going to be shown in the graphs. If that's true and in reality variance in both directions is higher than it used to be, you might want to play it safe by reducing your guess, to limit the chances of going over. ... but that would probably still be a good way to lose the game, so most likely the author just got mixed up.